Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Characteristics During Contrasting Monsoon Years

The present paper presents a diagnostic study of two recent monsoon years, of which one is dry monsoon year (2009) and the other is wet monsoon year (2010). The study utilized the IMD gridded rainfall data set in addition to the Reynolds SST, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind and temperature products, and NOAA OLR. The study revealed that the months July and August are the most crucial months to decide whether the ISMR is wet or dry. However, during July 2009, most of the Indian subcontinent received more than 60 % in the central and western coastal regions. In a wet monsoon year, about 35–45 % of rainfall is contributed during June and July in most parts of India. During these years, the influence of features in the Pacific Ocean played vital role on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. During 2009, Pacific SST was above normal in nino regions, characteristic of the El Nino structure; however, during 2010, the nino regions were clearly below normal temperature, indicating the La Nina pattern. The associated atmospheric general circulation through equatorial Walker and regional Hadley circulation modulates the tropospheric temperature, and hence the organized convective cloud bands. These cloud bands show different characteristics in northward propagation during dry and wet years of ISMR. During a dry year, the propagation speed and magnitudes are considerably higher than during a wet monsoon year.     

The Cold Tongue in the South China Sea during Boreal Winter and Its Interaction with the Atmosphere

A distinct cold tongue has recently been noticed in the South China Sea during the winter monsoon, with the cold tongue temperature minimum occurring in the January or February. This cold tongue shows significant links with the Maritime Continent’s rainfall during the winter period. The cold tongue and its interaction with the Maritime Continent’s weather were studied using Reynolds SST data, wind fields from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and the quikSCAT dataset. In addition, rainfall from the GOES Prec...     

A GIS-based soil erosion prediction using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) (Lebna watershed,Cap Bon,Tunisia)

Natural Hazards - Soil erosion is a natural process causing grave land degradation problems. In Tunisia, soil erosion represents a serious environmental problem. Both man-made and natural...     

Variation of continental mantle heat flow with age. Possibility of discriminating between thermal models of the lithosphere

Continental mantle heat flow values are obtained by subtracting the radiogenic heat produced in the lower crust and lithosphere beneath the crust from reduced heat flow values reported for various heat flow provinces. The significance of continental mantle heat flow values thus obtained is that they can be considered essentially as representing the residual heat of cooling of the continental lithosphere. A plot of these mantle heat flow values against 1/t where t is the geologic age of the last thermal event suggests a linear trend. It is also found that the recently proposed relationQ=500 (1/t) for the variation of oceanic heat flowQ (in mW/M²) with aget (in million years) provides a reasonably good fit to the mantle heat flow data. The constant thickness plate model however, is found to be unsatisfactory in explaining the variation of continental mantle heat flow with age.     

断层含水层在非等温条件下的构造性渗流——一种震前热前兆异常产生的机理

本文用一个简单的解析模式来计算,在被断层带切断的含水层,由于形变产生的渗流引起的热量瞬时流动。在这个模式中,含水层流体的补给被假定只是通过弱隔水层垂向渗流。在这种条件下,能量平衡方程要计算由于含水层体积变化和形变产生的水力压头变化引起的流体水平向和垂直向流动的单位热量传递。数值模拟的结果表明在应力增加期,当渗流的地下水与含水层的地下水混合的时候,地温就表现为瞬时的升高。相应地,当这一渗流过程停止的时候,地温迅速回到平衡状态。利用此解析模型,可以重建观测记录中的地温前兆异常特征。按照模型的结果,地温升高达到稳定状态的时间和流体的补给率相关。热异常的幅度与弱隔水层的温度梯度有关,弱隔水层与含水层之间的渗透率也起到很重要的作用。模型的结果表明热前兆异常只是在离断层近的区域表现明显,由于在这个区域构造渗流的过程对含水层的水力压头有直接的影响。如果断层面对形变敏感,应力模式的改变会使得构造渗流率发生永久的改变,从而很容易使区域的温度场产生剧烈的、不可恢复的改变。在某些构造活跃区域的井孔地温记录中,一些短临异常变化的特征和按照“构造渗流”模型的预测结果非常相似。在土库曼斯坦的Firjusa、乔治亚州的Didiweli和日本的Izu peninsnla都有这种震前热前兆模型的例子。研究表明,与小规模构造形变相关的热前兆异常并不是罕见的。热前兆异常的监测要有合适的井孔和高精度的监测仪器,其观测时间至少要与区域地震复发周期相当。     

Hydrogeochemistry of the Winder River and adjoining tributaries, Balochistan, Pakistan

Quantitative estimation of ground and stream waters draining through sedimentary rocks of the Pab and Mor ranges (Jurassic-Cretaceous) and the Bela ophiolite has been made. The degree of correspondence among cations and anions has been estimated in order to evaluate their mutual relationships. The abundance of major ions is interpreted to be related to bedrocks and climatic conditions, which may contribute to the genetic affiliation. The log TDS and Na/Na Ca ratio reflected supremacy of weathering of rocks with some influence of evaporation. Ionic relationship is exhibited in the form of Stiff diagrams. Patterns of ionic composition revealed high NaCl, medium Ca(HCO3)2 and low MgSO4. Piper diagram has been used to classify the hydrofacies. The important hydrogeochemical parameters have been estimated for assessment of groundwater quality for domestic purposes in accordance to WHO. Irrigation water qualities have been evaluated in terms of EC, SAR, RSC, ESP and pH.     

Development of a flood forecasting system using IFAS: a case study of scarcely gauged Jhelum and Chenab river basins

Development of a well-calibrated, distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting based on rainfall and snowmelt is quite challenging, especially when in situ data is limited or unavailable. This paper presents the study carried out to parameterise the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model for the trans-boundary, scarcely gauged catchments of Jhelum and Chenab rivers in Pakistan. Rainfall-runoff analysis was performed with a two-layered tank configuration, integrating snowmelt and dam and barrage operation from the very upstream in India to Trimmu Barrage in Pakistan. A grid size of 5?×?5 km was considered. Global map topography, land cover and soil data was utilised. The model was tested considering different magnitudes of floods of the years 2014, 2015 and 2017. The results showed that the satellite rainfall product, i.e. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-NRT), underestimated the rainfall volume, compared to the ground-gauged rainfall. The GSMaP-IF correction method showed poor performance owing to the lack of ground observatory rainfall data for correcting the trans-boundary part of the basin. The GSMaP-Type1 correction method showed good results, except for the confluence point where complex flow conditions were not properly reproduced by the model. In addition, the incorporation of dam and barrages in the model improved the simulated flow results. It is concluded that the satellite rainfall estimates must be corrected to improve the results. Snowmelt module estimated the snowmelt contribution as 3 to 7% and 4 to 23% of the average daily discharge during the monsoon season at Mangla Dam and Marala Barrage, respectively, during 2014 and 2015. This study assessed various correction methods and concluded that the model and methodology used in the study functioned well with suitable precipitation.     

A New Semi-supervised Classification Method Based on Mixture Model Clustering for Classification of Multispectral Data

A new method for semi-supervised classification of remotely-sensed multispectral image data is developed in this study. It consists of unsupervised-clustering for data labelling and supervised-classification of clusters in multispectral image data (MID) using spectral signatures. Mixture model clustering, based on model selection, is proposed for finding the number and determining the structures of clusters in MID. The best mixture model, for the best clustering of data, finds the number and determines the structure of clusters in MID. The number of elements in the best mixture model fits to the number of clusters in MID. The elements of the best mixture model fits to the structure of clusters in MID. Clusters in MID is supervised-classified using spectral signatures. Euclidean distance is used as the discrimination function for the supervised-classification method. The values of Euclidean distances are used as decision rule for the supervised-classification method.     

Destruction of a Holothuria scabra population by overfishing at Abu Rhamada Island in the Red Sea

Populations of Holothuria scabra at Abu Rhamada Island were investigated during 52 months, from July 1999 to October 2003. During the first 23 months (July, 1999-May, 2001) the Island had a robust population with a tri-modal size frequency distribution curve, very high densities (85.7-95.1 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), high abundance (3362-3110 individuals) and biomass (46.7-34.3 kg/100 m2). Also, during this period most individuals were at depths between 4 and 6m and no individuals were recorded deeper than 15m. The population declined after harvesting began (June, 2001) and by March, 2002 the size frequency distribution showed a bimodal pattern with an obvious decrease in abundance of large individuals. There was also a slight reduction in densities (73.2-60.1 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), abundance (2292-1682 individuals) and biomass (21.6-11.3 kg/100 m2), and a marked shift towards deeper waters. Overfishing reached its maximum during the final 19 months of the study, and by October, 2003, density (30.7-0.4 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), abundance (802-10 individuals) and biomass (6.9-0.1 kg/100 m2) were all greatly reduced. The size frequency distribution of the population became unimodal, large animals disappeared and no recruits were seen. During this period, individuals were found at very deep depths (30 to >40 m). The study also showed that sandy substrate was the preferred habitat for H. scabra, accommodating the largest number of individuals. The population of H. scabra at Abu Rhamada Island was found to spawn biannually from 1999 to 2001, then only once during 2002 when high fishing pressure occurred, and ceased completely in 2003. The sex ratio was not significantly different from 1:1 before fishing begun, but shifted to an increasing male bias reaching 93% males by January 2003. None of the small animals remaining after January, 2003 could be sexed. Size at sexual maturity decreased from prefishing (185 mm for females and 160 mm for males) to 155 mm for females and 125 mm for males in January 2003. There was a positive relationship between fecundity and size. And oocyte/female was highest in 1999 (0.73-1.7 million) and 2000 (0.75-1.72 million), decreased during 2001 (0.2-0.85 million) to reach its minimum at 2002 (0.28-0.29 million).     

Possible role of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling in auroral arc generation

Three models for the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling feedback instability are considered. The first model is based on demagnetization of hot ions in the plasma sheet. The instability takes place in the global magnetosphere-ionosphere system when magnetospheric electrons drift through a spatial gradient of hot magnetospheric ion population. Such a situation exists on the inner and outer edges of the plasma sheet where relatively cold magnetospheric electrons move earthward through a radial gradient of hot ions. This leads to the formation of field-aligned currents. The effect of upward field-aligned current on particle precipitation and the magnitude of ionospheric conductivity leads to the instability of this earthward convection and to its division into convection streams oriented at some angle with respect to the initial convection direction. The growth rate of the instability is maximum for structures with sizes less than the ion Larmor radius in the equatorial plane. This may lead to formation of auroral arcs with widths about 10 km. This instability explains many features of such arcs, including their conjugacy in opposite hemispheres. However, it cannot explain the very high growth rates of some auroral arcs and very narrow arcs. For such arcs another type of instability must be considered. In the other two models the instability arises because of the generation of Alfven waves from growing arc-like structures in the ionospheric conductivity. One model is based on the modulation of precipitating electrons by field-aligned currents of the upward moving Alfven wave. The other model takes into consideration the reflection of Alfven waves from a maximum in the Alfven velocity at an altitude of about 3000 km. The growth of structures in both models takes place when the ionization function associated with upward field-aligned current is shifted from the edges of enhanced conductivity structures toward their centers. Such a shift arises because the structures move at a velocity different from the E × B drift. Although both models may work, the growth rate for the model, based on the modulation of the precipitating accelerated electrons, is significantly larger than that of the model based on the Alfven wave reflection. This mechanism is suitable for generation of auroral arcs with widths of about 1 km and less. The growth rate of the instability can be as large as 1 s^-1, and this mechanism enables us to justify the development of auroral arcs only in one ionosphere. It is hardly suitable for excitation of wide and conjugate auroral arcs, but it may be responsible for the formation of small-scale structures inside a wide arc.Polar Geophysical Institute, Apatity, Russia