Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

Stereoscopic Analysis of the 19 May 2007 Erupting Filament

A filament eruption, accompanied by a B9.5 flare, coronal dimming, and an EUV wave, was observed by the Solar TERrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) on 19 May 2007, beginning at about 13:00 UT. Here, we use observations from the SECCHI/EUVI telescopes and other solar observations to analyze the behavior and geometry of the filament before and during the eruption. At this time, STEREO A and B were separated by about 8.5°, sufficient to determine the three-dimensional structure of the filament using stereoscopy. The filament could be followed in SECCHI/EUVI 304 Å stereoscopic data from about 12 hours before to about 2 hours after the eruption, allowing us to determine the 3D trajectory of the erupting filament. From the 3D reconstructions of the filament and the chromospheric ribbons in the early stage of the eruption, simultaneous heating of both the rising filamentary material and the chromosphere directly below is observed, consistent with an eruption resulting from magnetic reconnection below the filament. Comparisons of the filament during eruption in 304 Å and Hα? show that when it becomes emissive in He II, it tends to disappear in Hα?, indicating that the disappearance probably results from heating or motion, not loss, of filamentary material.     

Monitoring of the nano-structure response of natural clay under mechanical perturbation using small angle X-ray scattering and digital image correlation

Acta Geotechnica - This paper introduces a new experimental method to monitor the evolving intra-particle, nanometre-scale response during hydro-mechanical tests on undisturbed wet clay samples...     

Field testing cellulose-water oxygen isotope relations in periphyton for paleohydrological reconstructions

Journal of Paleolimnology - The oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of aquatic cellulose extracted from lake sediment cores has long been used to reconstruct past hydrological responses to...     

Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

Factors governing abundance of hydrolyzable amino acids in the sediments from the N.W. European Continental Margin (47–50°N)

Fifty-six samples representing 6 sediment cores taken along the N.W. European Continental Margin from the shelf, slope and abyssal plain of the Goban Spur and Meriadzek Terrace were quantitatively analysed for total hydrolyzable amino acids (THAA) and clay minerals. In descending order, the five most abundant amino acids making up more than 70% of the total were: aspartic acid, glycine, serine, alanine and glutamic acid. Clay mineral proportions were typical for the N.E. Atlantic, in order of descending abundance: illite, kaolinite, chlorite, smectite and mixed layers.The Meriadzek Terrace area is characterised by fine grain suspension sedimentation with a low pelagic carbonate input and the lowest content of THAA. In contrast, the Goban Spur transect is characterised by much higher carbonate inputs and more vigorous hydrodynamics as judged from granulometry and the high abundance of minerals of shelf and continental origin and a generally higher THAA content. The pelagic portion of THAA deposited at the sea floor is more readily mineralised during early diagenesis than the more ‘refractory', clay mineral-associated continental portion. Along this margin the average mineralization of THAA down to 25 cm in the sediment is about 54%. There is a significant affinity between chlorites and amino acids which we suggest may involve the formation of ionic bonds between the octahedral layers of the clay and the amino acids.     

Volcanoes and peat bogs

Peat bogs in the British Isles contain tephra from volcanic eruptions in Iceland; tephra in the Falkland Islands most likely derives from Andean volcanoes. Study of these far-travelled volcanic products is making a significant contribution to our understanding of past environmental changes.     

Temporal variation in properties of an uncropped,ploughed Miamian soil in relation to seasonal erodibility

Knowledge of seasonal variation in soil structural and related properties is important for the determination of critical periods during which soil is susceptible to accelerated erosion and other degradative processes. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the magnitude of seasonal variations in selected soil and deposited sediment properties in relation to soil erodibility for a Miamian silt-loam soil (Typic Hapludalf) in central Ohio. Erosion plots (USLE-type) were established on a 4·5% slope and maintained under bare, ploughed conditions from 1988 to 1991. Particle size distribution, bulk density(ρ_b), percentage water stable aggregates (WSA), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total soil nitrogen (TSN) of both soil and sediment samples were monitored between Autumn 1989 and Spring 1991. The soil and sediment particle size distributions followed no clear seasonal trends. Soil ρ_b increased following tillage (1·20 Mg m⁻³) and was highest (1·45 Mg m⁻³) during the autumn owing to soil slumping and consolidation upon drying. Low winter and spring values of ρ_b and %WSA (20–50% lower than in autumn) were attributed to excessive wetness and freeze–thaw effects. Both SOC and soil TSN contents progressively declined (from 2·18 to 1·79% and 1·97 to 1·75 g kg⁻¹, respectively) after ploughing owing to maintenance of plots under bare, fallow conditions. Spring highs and autumn lows of sediment SOC (3·12 vs. 2·44%) and TSN (2·70 vs. 1·96 g kg⁻¹) contents were a result of the combined effects of soil microbial activity and rainfall erosivity. Soil properties such as bulk density, SOC and WSA, which vary seasonally, can potentially serve as predictors of seasonal soil erodibility, which, in turn, could improve the predictive capacity of soil erosion prediction models. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.