Context Matters: What Shapes Adaptation to Water Stress in the Okanagan?

This paper describes two case studies of demand-side water management in the Okanagan region of southern British Columbia, Canada. The case studies reveal important lessons about how local context shapes the process of adaptation; in these cases, adaptation to rising and changing water demand under a regime of increasingly limited supply in a semi-arid region. Both case studies represent examples of water meter implementation, specifically volume-based pricing in a residential area and as a compliance tool in a mainly farming district. While the initiative was successful in the residential setting, agricultural metering met with stiff resistance. These cases suggest many factors shape the character of the adaptation process, including: interpretation of the signal relative to context, newness of the approach, consumer values, and local and provincial political agendas. Although context has been explored in resource management circles, thus far climate change adaptation research has not adequately discussed the embeddedness of adaptation. In other words, how context matters and what aspects of context, unrelated to climate change, could encourage or thwart the act of adapting. This study is a simple illustration of the potential drivers, barriers and enabling factors that have influenced the adaptation process of water management decisions in the Okanagan.     

Prediction of river flow using hybrid neuro-fuzzy models

The complex nature of hydrological phenomena, like rainfall and river flow, causes some limitations for some admired soft computing models in order to predict the phenomenon. Evolutionary algorithms (EA) are novel methods that used to cover the weaknesses of the classic training algorithms, such as trapping in local optima, poor performance in networks with large parameters, over-fitting, and etc. In this study, some evolutionary algorithms, including genetic algorithm (GA), ant colony optimization for continuous domain (ACO_R), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), have been used to train adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in order to predict river flow. For this purpose, classic and hybrid ANFIS models were trained using river flow data obtained from upstream stations to predict 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day ahead river flow of downstream station. The best inputs were selected using correlation coefficient and a sensitivity analysis test (cosine amplitude). The results showed that PSO improved the performance of classic ANFIS in all the periods such that the averages of coefficient of determination, R², root mean square error, RMSE (m³/s), mean absolute relative error, MARE, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were improved up to 0.19, 0.30, 43.8, and 0.13%, respectively. Classic ANFIS was only capable to predict river flow in 1-day ahead while EA improved this ability to 5-day ahead. Cosine amplitude method was recognized as an appropriate sensitivity analysis method in order to select the best inputs.     

Multiscale formulation for coupled flow-heat equations arising from single-phase flow in fractured geothermal reservoirs

Efficient heat exploitation strategies from geothermal systems demand for accurate and efficient simulation of coupled flow-heat equations on large-scale heterogeneous fractured formations. While the accuracy depends on honouring high-resolution discrete fractures and rock heterogeneities, specially avoiding excessive upscaled quantities, the efficiency can be maintained if scalable model-reduction computational frameworks are developed. Addressing both aspects, this work presents a multiscale formulation for geothermal reservoirs. To this end, the nonlinear time-dependent (transient) multiscale coarse-scale system is obtained, for both pressure and temperature unknowns, based on elliptic locally solved basis functions. These basis functions account for fine-scale heterogeneity and discrete fractures, leading to accurate and efficient simulation strategies. The flow-heat coupling is treated in a sequential implicit loop, where in each stage, the multiscale stage is complemented by an ILU(0) smoother stage to guarantee convergence to any desired accuracy. Numerical results are presented in 2D to systematically analyze the multiscale approximate solutions compared with the fine scale ones for many challenging cases, including the outcrop-based geological fractured field. These results show that the developed multiscale formulation casts a promising framework for the real-field enhanced geothermal formations.     

A multifractal cross-correlation investigation into sensitivity and dependence of meteorological and hydrological droughts on precipitation and temperature

Natural Hazards - Several studies have been conducted on droughts, precipitation, and temperature, whereas none have addressed the underlying relationship between nonlinear dynamic properties and...     

New interpretable shear strength criterion for rock joints

Acta Geotechnica - Shear constitutive models of rock discontinuities have been viewed as an effective stability evaluation tool in the rock mass engineering application area. This paper proposes a...     

Machine learning-assisted distinct element model calibration: ANFIS,SVM, GPR,and MARS approaches

Acta Geotechnica - Particle-based discrete element modeling is commonly used in the numerical analysis of geomaterials. However, for the construction of such models, micromechanical parameters...     

Petrogenesis and geochronology of Mishao peraluminous I-type granites,Shalair valley area,NE Iraq

The Shalair area, which is located in northeastern Iraq, is considered to be part of the northern Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone (SaSZ) and contains several granitoid bodies. One of these bodies, the Mishao porphyritic-granite (MG), was crystallized at 111.6?±?2.4 Ma, based on its zircon U-Pb age. Its geochemical characteristics suggest that the MG rocks are calc-alkaline, peraluminous, I-type granites with microgranular mafic enclaves. They are enriched in SiO₂, Na₂O, Al₂O₃ and Zr and depleted in MgO, Fe₂O₃, Nb and Ti; in contrast, the enclave sample records lower SiO₂ content and higher contents of MgO and Fe₂O₃. These rocks show an enrichment of LREE relative to HREE, and pronounced negative Eu anomalies implying feldspar fractionation. The isotopic and geochemical characteristics of the MG samples suggest that these rocks are evolved through fractional crystallization. In the La/Nb-Nb diagram and Sm/Nd ratios, the MG rocks and the enclave samples exhibit strong evidence for crustal contamination. The MG rocks record high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70625–0.70740) and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd(i) (0.51235–0.51274) ratios. These Sr-Nd isotopic data, combined with the presence of high Th/U and Rb/Sr ratios and significant depletions of Nb, Ta and Ti, show a relation of these bodies to an active continental margin regime. Based on the age and geochemical data of the MG, this study presents new information about the occurrence of Middle Cretaceous magmatic activities, which are related to the active continental margins in the SaSZ that run parallel to the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt.     

Origin of 1.8 Ga zircons in Post Eocene mafic dikes in the Roshtkhar area,NE Iran

The Roshtkhar area is located in the Khaf-Kashmar-Bardaskan volcano-plutonic belt to the northeastern Iran along the regional E–W trending Dorouneh Fault, northeastern of the Lut Block. There are several outcrops of subvolcanic rocks occurring mainly as dikes in the area, which intruded into Cenozoic intrusive rocks. We present U–Pb dating of zircons from a diabase dike and syenite rock using LA-ICP-MS that yielded an age of 1778 ± 10 Ma for the dike, indicating this Cenozoic dike has zircon xenocrysts inherited from deeper sources; and 38.0 ± 0.5 Ma, indicating an Late Eocene crystallization age for the syenite. Geochemically, the dikes typical of high-K calc-alkaline to shoshonitic magmas. Petrographic observations and major and trace element variations suggest that diabase melts underwent variable fractionation of clinopyroxene, olivine, and Fe-Ti oxides and minor crustal contamination during the differentiation process. Primitive mantle-normalized multi-element diagrams display enrichment in LILE, such as Rb, Ba, Th, U, and Sr compared to HFSE, as well as negative anomalies of Nb, Ta, P, and Ti, suggesting derivation from subduction-modified mantle. Chondrite-normalized REE plots show moderately LREE enriched patterns (<3.83 La_N/Yb_N <8.27), and no significant Eu anomalies. Geochemical modelling using Sm/Yb versus La/Yb and La/Sm ratios suggests a low-degree of batch melting (~1–3%) of a phlogopite-spinel peridotite source to generate the mafic dikes. The geochemical signatures suggest that the Roshtkhar mafic dikes cannot be related directly to subduction and likely resulted from melting of upper mantle in an extensional setting where the heat flow was provided from deeper levels. These dikes presumably derived the zircon xenocrysts from the assimilation of upper crust of Gondwanian basement. Processes responsible for partial melting of metasomatized lithospheric mantle and post-collision magmatism in NE Iran was triggered by heating due to asthenospheric upwelling in an extensional setting.