Comparing public rationales for justice trade-offs in mitigation and adaptation climate policy dilemmas

Despite a great deal of research on public perceptions of climate change science, very little empirical work has attempted to investigate how members of the lay public might evaluate the justice dilemmas inherent within climate policy decision-making. This exploratory study contrasts arguments about justice from a mitigation perspective, with those from an adaptation perspective and draws insights about the contours of politically acceptable climate policy. Using think-aloud protocols and a structured elicitation approach with members of the lay public to generate quantitative and qualitative data, this study suggests that the two types of climate policy trigger different sets of arguments about justice. When asked about mitigation burden-sharing participants overwhelmingly invoke arguments about causality. In contrast, in discussions of adaptation participants emphasized the needs of the afflicted parties and their ability to cope. Furthermore, social and spatial distances were not a factor in allocation of mitigation burdens, but were used to discount the distribution of compensation towards adaptation. These initial data about public perceptions of justice in this area suggest that the public would view adaptation and mitigation as complements not substitutes. These findings also highlight the importance of exploring public reactions to the sub-components of climate policy individually.     

The near-field method: a modified equivalent linear method for dynamic soil–structure interaction analysis. Part II: verification and example application

Usually for modeling of soil in a direct soil–structure interaction (SSI) problem, the equivalent linear soil properties are used. However, this approach is not valid in the vicinity of a foundation, where the soil experiences large strains and a high level of nonlinearity because of structural vibrations. The near-field method was developed and described in a companion paper to overcome this limitation. This method considers the effects of large strains and suggests a shear modulus and a damping ratio further modified in the near-field of a foundation. Validity and performance of this approach are evaluated, application examples are explained and the results of a parametric study about the role of soil and structure parameters in the extent of SSI effects on the nonlinear seismic response of structures are presented in this paper. One real existing and five, ten, fifteen and twenty story moment-resisting frame steel buildings with two different site conditions corresponding to firm and soft soils are considered and the responses obtained from the near-field method are compared with the recorded and rigorous responses. Moreover, various SSI modeling techniques are employed to investigate the accuracy and performance of each approach. The results show that the near-field method is a simple yet accurate enough approach for analysis of direct SSI problems.     

The near-field method: a modified equivalent linear method for dynamic soil–structure interaction analysis. Part I: Theory and methodology

This paper presents a new direct modeling approach to analyze 3D dynamic SSI systems including building structures resting on shallow spread foundations. The direct method consists of modeling the superstructure and the underlying soil domain. Using a reduced shear modulus and an increased damping ratio resulted from an equivalent linear free-field analysis is a traditional approach for simulating behavior of the soil medium. However, this method is not accurate enough in the vicinity of foundation, or the near-field domain, where the soil experiences large strains and the behavior is highly nonlinear. This research proposes new modulus degradation and damping augmentation curves for using in the near-field zone in order to obtain more accurate results with the equivalent linear method. The mentioned values are presented as functions of dimensionless parameters controlling nonlinear behavior in the near-field zone. This paper summarizes the semi-analytical methodology of the proposed modified equivalent linear procedure. The numerical implementation and examples are given in a companion paper.     

Experimental study on the settlement of marine deposits of Anzali under cyclic loading by laminar box apparatus

The central Alborz mountain range, located in northern Iran, neighboring the Caspian Sea and where the two Persia and Eurasia plates meet, is known as a seismologically active area. In this regard, investigation of the behavior of saturated sand deposits located in this area may be of particular interest. Saturated sand deposits are subjected to instabilities owing to liquefaction or volume change due to earthquake shakings. A particular type of saturated sand deposits is Anzali sand which is abundant in Anzali port and other cities located in this area in northern Iran. This type of sand is a representative for most sands found in this area, i.e., the southern coastal line of Caspian Sea. This research is solely focused on the volume change behavior of marine deposits of Anzali area, often characterized as Anzali sand, in terms of the settlement of a model footing located on the surface of the sand by the aid of a transparent laminar shear box apparatus. Effects of a number of factors such as the frequency of the cyclic loading, the initial density of the sand, and the sample preparation method have been investigated. Observations indicated that the density index and the frequency of loading which are proportional to the energy of an earthquake have direct effects on the accumulation and amount of the final settlement of Anzali sand.     

Potential map of gas hydrate formation in Caspian Sea based on physicochemical stability evaluation of methane hydrate

Preliminary studies of Caspian Sea have shown the possibility of gas hydrate accumulations, because of suitable physicochemical conditions, existence of clayey deposits, and high concentrations of organic matter. Studies have indicated that gas hydrates are mainly composed of methane. Therefore, based on physicochemical equations for methane hydrate stability in different pressure, temperature, and salinity, this study was designed to calculate the potential of gas hydrate formation in the Caspian Sea basin. For this, data of more than 600 locations were analyzed and in each location, upper and lower limits of methane hydrate formation zone were calculated. Then, the zoning maps of upper and lower limits were prepared which can be useful for exploring the gas hydrate as an energy source or predicting gas hydrate hazards. According to the calculations and maps, methane hydrate formation in Caspian Sea, theoretically, can take place from near the seabed to 4000 and 2500 m beneath the sea surface when low and high geothermal gradient are supposed, respectively. By comparing the results with gas hydrate zones revealed in geophysical profiles, it has been shown that, in Caspian Sea, gas hydrates probably accumulate near the lower limit when a high geothermal gradient is assumed.     

Utilization of bituminous limestone ash from EL-Lajjun area in production of lightweight Masonry block

The following work aims at minimizing the environmental impact of the solid wastes (ash) that is produced after the utilization of the bituminous limestone in thermal power stations and/or retorting processes. The laboratory tests have been selected with respect to construction needs and possible post construction conditions. Utilization of the various types of ash in the production of lightweight concrete block has revealed optimum results. The compressive strength of various ash–glass sand mixes has ranged between 19 and 76 kg/cm² at 28 days. The compressive strength of ash–tuff mixes has ranged between 54 and 63 kg/cm² at 28 days. Ultra light mixtures using ash–polyester with a density of 0.88 kg/m³ and a compressive strength of 21 kg/cm² at 28 days are produced at normal room curing temperature without the use of ordinary Portland cement. The high alkalinity of El-Lajjun ash is considered a disadvantage when utilized in normal concrete mixes for structural purposes. Ash only can be mixed with aggregates to produce lean concrete for blinding purposes for use in foundations.     

Learning from integrated assessment of climate change

The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, in Section 2 we ask: who are the climate decision makers? We conclude that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated with results from the ICAM-2 model. In Section 3 we ask: what is the climate problem? In addition to the conventional answer, we note that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing greenhouse gases, are discussed. In Section 4 we discuss studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. We conclude by noting that equity has received too little attention in past work. We argue that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, pose particularly important challenges for the future.     

Storms, Investor Decisions, and the Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise

Past research on the economic impacts of aclimate-induced sea level rise has been based on thegradual erosion of the shoreline, and humanadaptation. Erosion which is accelerated by sea levelrise may also increase the vulnerability to stormdamage by decreasing the distance between the shoreand structures, and by eroding protective coastalfeatures (dunes). We present methods of assessingthis storm damage in coastal regions where structuralprotection is not pursued. Starting from the boundingcases of no foresight and perfectforesight of Yohe et al. (1996), we use adisaggregated analysis which models the random natureof storms, and models market valuation and privateinvestor decisions dynamically. Using data from theNational Flood Insurance Program and a hypotheticalcommunity, we estimate that although the total stormdamage can be large, the increase in storm damageattributable to sea level rise is small (<5% oftotal sea level rise damages). These damages,however, could become more significant under otherreasonable assumptions or where dune erosion increasesstorm damage.     

Climate Change and Cryptosporidiosis: A Qualitative Analysis

The effects of climate change on drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis transmission in the United States are analyzed using an influence diagram representation of epidemic development. Results from a systematic qualitative analysis indicate that climate change will have little effect on cryptosporidiosis incidence if the United States continues to be wealthy and maintains its commitment to public health. The major impact will, instead, be the additional costs of adapting to new climate regimes in order to avoid drinking-waterborne disease risk. These costs, for the most part, will be from improved monitoring and treatment of drinking water. The consequences of disaster scenarios are also considered. These, too, suggest that climate change per se will be a poor predictor of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in countries with high standards of living. Rather, the risk of epidemics will depend on the interplay between population, public health investment, infrastructure maintenance, emergency planning/response capabilities, water-treatment technologies, drinking-water regulations, and climate.