Use of Machine Learning Methods to Reduce Predictive Error of Groundwater Models

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically‐based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data‐driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically‐based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance‐based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real‐world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley‐Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically‐based model.     

西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳电性结构研究

为了探测西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳浅部和深部构造沿东西和南北方向的变化特征,在雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区布设了三条南北向剖面(错那—墨竹工卡、亚东—雪古拉、吉隆—措勤),采用超宽频带大地电磁测深方法进行了地壳、上地幔电性结构探测研究,发现该区主要电性结构特征为：1. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近表层发育大规模的高阻体,岩体延伸最深达30km以上,是冈底斯花岗岩体的反映. 2. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带的南部有小规模的良导体,在其下方和北侧发育有大规模良导体. 3. 沿剖面从南往北壳内普遍发育良导体,各良导体主体间是不连续的,规模逐渐增大,总体北倾,在缝合带附近产状较陡. 4. 在雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近良导体由西往东规模逐渐增大,导电性逐渐变好,相对雅鲁藏布江在剖面上的位置逐渐南移. 这些重要的电性特征可能是印度板块向北俯冲所形成的,深部大规模的良导体特征沿东西向的差异可能是板块碰撞引起物质沿东西向运移作用的结果.     

Thermal anomalies associated with shallow gas hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano, Lake Baikal

Thermal measurements and hydrate mapping in the vicinity of the K-2 mud volcano in Lake Baikal have revealed a particular type of association of thermal anomalies (29–121?mW?m^–2) near hydrate-forming layers. Detailed coring within K-2 showed that hydrates are restricted to two distinct zones at sub-bottom depths exceeding 70–300?cm. Temperature data from stations with hydrate recovery and degassing features all display low thermal gradients. Otherwise, the thermal gradients within the mud volcano are generally increased. These findings imply a more complicated thermal regime than often assumed for mud volcanoes, with important roles for both fluids and hydrates. The coexistence of neighbouring low and high thermal anomalies is interpreted to result from discharging and recharging fluid activity, rather than hydrate thermodynamics. It is suggested that hydrates play a key role in controlling the fluid circulation pattern at an early stage. At a later stage, the inflow of undersaturated lake water would favour the dissolution of structure I hydrates and the formation of structure II hydrates, the latter having been observed on top of structure I hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano.     

Modeling the effects of historical vegetation change on near-surface atmosphere in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Our goal was to evaluate effects of broad-scale changes in vegetation from grasslands to shrublands over the past 150 years on near-surface atmosphere over the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, using a regional climate model. Simulations were conducted using 1858 and 1998 vegetation maps, and data collected in the field. Overall, the vegetation shift led to small changes in sensible heat (SH) and an increase in latent heat (LH). The impacts of shrub encroachment depended on shrubland type: conversion from grass to mesquite cools the near-surface atmosphere and from grass to creosotebush warms it. Higher albedo of mesquite relative to grasses reduced available energy, which was dissipated mainly as LH due to the deeper root system in mesquite. In creosotebush-dominated areas, a decrease in albedo, an increase in roughness length and displacement height contributed to the SH increase and warmer temperatures. Sensitivity simulations showed that an increase in soil moisture content enhanced shrub LH and a reduction in mesquite cover enhanced the temperature differences. The observed shift in vegetation led to complex interactions between land and surface fluxes, demonstrating that vegetation itself is a weather and climate variable as it significantly influences temperature and humidity.     

Abundance, diversity and succession of aquatic Coleoptera and Heteroptera in a cluster of artificial ponds in the North German Lowlands

Our study describes and evaluates environmental influences on assemblages of aquatic Coleoptera and Heteroptera in artificial ponds situated near Lake Steinhude in Lower Saxony (Germany). We determined temporal dynamics and colonization patterns for 14 ponds of different age. In total, we recorded 4941 individuals that represented 87 species of aquatic beetles and bugs. Between 30 and 40 species were found in most of the ponds. Heteropteran species of the families Corixidae and Notonectidae acted as pioneer species in new ponds, while aquatic coleopterans predominated in older ponds. The results of Canonical Correspondence Analyses (CCA) showed that among the key factors affecting community structure were land use, vegetation cover, water chemistry and the age of the ponds. We found that the distribution of adjacent ponds on areas with different land use has a positive influence on the diversity and abundance of the aquatic insect fauna.     

Tendances et ruptures au niveau des pluies journalières extrêmes en Côte d'Ivoire (Afrique de l'Ouest)

Résumé

Le changement climatique est une réalité qui affecte plusieurs variables climatiques dont les précipitations. Néanmoins, son impact sur les évènements extrêmes et en particulier sur les pluies journalières extrêmes n'est pas encore certain car peu de travaux y ont été consacrés en Afrique de l'Ouest. Dans ce contexte, il a été proposé de détecter d'éventuels tendances et ruptures dans les propriétés statistiques (moyenne, variance) des pluies journalières extrêmes à l'aide de tests statistiques locaux et régionaux. Pour détecter ces changements, les indices caractérisant la pluie maximale journalière annuelle (PJmaxan), le nombre annuel de jours de pluie dépassant 50 mm (NJsup50) et la contribution des pluies dépassant 50 mm dans les cumuls annuels (R(PJsup50/Pan)) ont été définis. L'analyse de 44 postes pluviométriques en Côte d'Ivoire sur la période 1942–2002 ne montre pas de changement généralisé ni en moyenne, ni en variance. Toutefois, en subdivisant la Côte d'Ivoire en régions climatiques homogènes, des tendances à la baisse ont été observées dans les régions IV (au Nord) et II (au Sud-Est).

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Assistant editeur G. Mahé

Citation Goula, A.B.T., Gneneyougo Soro, E., Kouassi, W. et Srohourou, B., 2012. Tendances et ruptures au niveau des pluies journalières extrêmes en Côte d'Ivoire (Afrique de l'Ouest). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1067–1080.     

Statewide groundwater‐vulnerability assessment in nebraska using the drastic/GIS model

The paper summarizes a technique for implementing the “DRASTIC” groundwater‐vulnerability model within the context of an automated raster‐based geographic information system. Discussion focuses on a methodological development and a statewide project completed recently in Nebraska. The final products, a comprehensive flow chart illustrating procedures and a map of calculated potential pollution hazard, are presented. The methodology can be executed successfully with minimal training and experience. Areas of Nebraska considered vulnerable to groundwater pollution are identified.     

The potential lateral growth of lithalsas

The lithalsas in the Hudson Bay region of northern Québec, Canada, are the closest modern analogs of ancient features that collapsed to form conspicuous circular depressions (“viviers”) common in the Hautes-Fagnes, a region in Belgium. Observations made in both regions are complementary and suggest that these mounds formed by frost heaving displacing soil not only upward, as previously assumed, but also laterally. This lateral displacement is consistent with diverse observations and inferences, which include (1) the simple rounded outline, either circular or oval, typical of both active and relic lithalsas; (2) evidence of local lateral extension inferred from exposures of the relic forms; (3) the relative inefficiency of solifluction in accumulating surface material to form the peripheral ramparts of remnant lithalsas due to the very gentle slopes of the mounds; and (4) the dip of ice lenses within a lithalsa in the Hudson Bay region, perhaps indicating that the freezing front dipped outward along its periphery. The growth of segregation ice is the primary driver for the vertical growth and lateral enlargement of a lithalsa.