This study examines the roles of the multi-physics approach in accounting for model errors for typhoon forecasts with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Experiments with forecasts of Typhoon Conson (2010) using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model show that use of the WRF’s multiple physical parameterization schemes to represent the model uncertainties can help the LETKF provide better forecasts of Typhoon Conson in terms of the forecast errors, the ensemble spread, the root mean square errors, the cross-correlation between mass and wind field as well as the coherent structure of the ensemble spread along the storm center. Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model show that the optimum number of the multi-physics ensemble is roughly equal to the number of combinations of different physics schemes assigned in the multi-physics ensemble. Additional idealized experiments with the Lorenz 40-variable model to isolate the dual roles of the multi-physics ensemble in correcting model errors and expanding the local ensemble space show that the multi-physics approach appears to be more essential in augmenting the local rank representation of the LETKF algorithm rather than directly accounting for model errors during the early cycles. The results in this study suggest that the multi-physics approach is a good option for short-range forecast applications with full physics models in which the spinup of the ensemble Kalman filter may take too long for the ensemble spread to capture efficiently model errors and cross-correlations among model variables. 相似文献
With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.
In this study, we have evaluated and compared prediction capability of Bagging Ensemble Based Alternating Decision Trees (BADT), Logistic Regression (LR), and J48 Decision Trees (J48DT) for landslide susceptibility mapping at part of the Uttarakhand State (India). The BADT method has been proposed in the present study which is a novel hybrid machine learning ensemble approach of bagging ensemble and alternating decision trees. The J48DT is a relative new machine learning technique which has been applied only in few landslide studies, and the LR is known as a popular landslide susceptibility model. For the model studies, a spatial database of 930 historical landslide events and 15 landslide affecting factors have been collected and analyzed. This database has been used to build and validate the landslide models namely BADT, LR and J48DT Predictive capability of these models has been validated and compared using statistical analyzing methods and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results show that these three landslide models (BADT, LR and J48DT) performed well with the training dataset. However, using the validation dataset the BADT model has the highest prediction capability, followed by the LR model, and the J48DT model, respectively. This indicates that the BADT is a promising method which can be used for landslide susceptibility assessment also for other landslide prone areas. 相似文献
The application of high resolution seismic data using boomer sound source has revealed a wide distribution of large-scale
bedforms (sandwaves) on the Southeast Vietnam continental shelf. Bedforms that are a few meters high in wave height and hundreds
of meters long in wavelength are primarily developed in the inner shelf (20–40 m) and considered to be formed under the present-day
marine hydrodynamic conditions. Those bedforms developed in the deeper water (120 m) of the northernmost part of the continent
can be interpreted as the relict morphological features formed during the latest sea-level lowstand of the late Pleistocene
period. Two sediment transport paths have been identified on the basis of the bedform’s leeward orientation: northeast-southwest
(along-shore) and north-south (cross-shore). A quantitative bottom current map is constructed from sandwave dimensions, surface
sediments and measurement data. The strongest current velocities that gradually decrease toward the southwest are indicated
by large sandwaves in the north (field B). Water depth, surficial sediment composition and bottom current are three factors
that control the development of bedforms. 相似文献
The common mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis was selected as unique biomonitor species to implement a regional monitoring programme, the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch (MMW), in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. As of today, and upon standardization of the methodological approach, the MMW Network has been able to quantify (137)Cs levels in mussels from 60 coastal stations and to produce the first distribution map of this artificial radionuclide at the scale of the entire Mediterranean and Black Seas. While measured (137)Cs levels were found to be very low (usually < 1 Bq kg(-1) wet wt) (137)Cs activity concentrations in the Black Sea and North Aegean Sea were up to two orders of magnitude higher than those in the western Mediterranean Basin. Such effects, far from representing a threat to human populations or the environment, reflect a persistent signature of the Chernobyl fallout in this area. 相似文献
Abstract— We have recovered 18 kg of layered tektites from 10 tektite-bearing localities in Laos and central Vietnam, including 5 localities around the town of Muong Nong (Laos). Several of these deposits originally contained several hundred kilograms of layered tektite fragments, and one fragmented mass may have been as large as 1000 kg. This is the largest single deposit of tektites yet reported. In this region, layered tektite fragments are found in isolated clusters usually associated with a pebbly laterite horizon that is 0–1 m below the surface. Near Khe Sanh, Vietnam, we estimate the abundance of layered tektite fragments to be ~100 g/m2. This is greater than five times the abundance estimated for northeast Thailand (Fiske et al., 1996). In a region that extends from northeast Thailand, through central Laos, and into central Vietnam, we found only layered tektites, which confirmed the existence of a large (>50 000 km2) subfield of the Australasian strewn field with only layered tektites. The east-west extent of the “layered-only” subfield is well constrained, but little field data exist to constrain its north-south extent. 相似文献
The Indosinian Orogeny plays a significant role in tectonic background and magmatic evolution in Indochina and surrounding regions. Being a part product of the Indosinian magmatism in northwest Vietnam during late Permian–middle Triassic period, Muong Luan granitoid pluton dominantly consists of granodiorite, less diorite and granite. This pluton is located in the Song Ma suture and assigned to the Dien Bien complex. Geochemically, the Muong Luan granitoid rocks are characterized by a wide range of SiO2 contents (59.9–75.1 wt%) and high K2O contents. They display typical features of I‐type granites. The presence of hornblende and no muscovite and cordierite in the rocks further supports for I‐type character of granitoids. The emplacement age of the Muong Luan pluton obtained by LA–ICP–MS U–Pb zircon is at 242–235 Ma, corresponding to Indosinian time. Zircon εHf values of –5.6 to –10.4, in combination with moderate Mg values of 34–45 suggested that the Muong Luan granitoid was derived from partial melting of mafic crustal source rocks, which are probably Paleoproterozoic in age as revealed by Hf model ages (TDM2 = 1624–1923 Ma). 相似文献