Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.     

Analysis of Wind Roses Using Hierarchical Cluster and Multidimensional Scaling Analysis at La Plata,Argentina

Knowledge of frequency wind patterns is very important for air pollution modelling, especially in a city like La Plata (approximately 850,000 inhabitants) with high vehicular and industrial activities and no air monitoring network. An hourly wind analysis was carried out on data from two local weather stations (points A and J). An initial result was that, in spite of differences in data quality, the local weather stations observations were consistent with local and regional National Meteorological Service (NMS) monthly based observations. Two non conventional multivariate statistical methods were employed to further analyse hourly data at points A and J. Hierarchical cluster resulted in a good summarising tool to visualise prevailing hourly winds. Resultant vectors emerging from the clustering process showed good similarity between sites and seasons; this allowed a further visualization of the average diurnal wind development. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) permitted a pairwise comparison of a large number of hourly wind roses. These wind roses were more similar to each other in colder seasons and at site A (the one that is closer to the river) than in warmer seasons and at site J. Most of the observed variations regarding seasons and sites revealed by cluster and MDS analysis are explained in terms of the sea-land breeze circulations. The methodology applied proved to be of utility for simplifying the analysis of high dimensional data with numerous observations.     

Atmospheric circulation associated with extreme generalized frosts persistence in central-southern South America

Generalized frosts (GF) in central-southern South America have a strong impact due to their spatial extension, and they are especially important when they become persistent. This paper aims at identifying the atmospheric circulation features that determine the extreme GF persistence, i.e. very persistent and without persistence, and the differences between them, during the 1961–1990 winters. Since the GF without persistence group outnumbers the other one, two subgroups are composed with events selected from winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, respectively. Additionally, the individual event of July 1988 within the very persistent GF group is analyzed due to its exceptional persistence. GF persistence is mainly conditioned by two large-scale dynamic factors. One is the Rossby wave train propagation across the Pacific Ocean, and the other one is the location with respect to the continent and the magnitude of the confluence in the jet entrance region in subtropical latitudes. A predominantly meridional Rossby wave train propagation with a confluence region to the west of the continent prior to the event favors GF with intermediate (null) persistence depending on the greater (lesser) jet acceleration. This is conditioned by the magnitude of the confluence, which, in turn, depends on the disposition of the wave train propagation pattern. Instead, an essentially zonal propagation with a confluence region to the east of the continent favors the GF persistence for several days, yet if there is no confluence the event does not persist. The greatest persistence of an event combines the confluence/diffluence of the jet entrance/exit region, which depends on the disposition with respect to the continent of the zonally propagating Rossby wave trains.     

基于岩土材料层析成像的孔隙网络构建算法

孔隙网络模型是研究多孔介质和其中颗粒的关键。现有的构建孔隙网络模型的算法有许多,但人们开始越来越多地研究基于图像的算法。将讨论一种基于中轴线的孔隙网络构建算法,并且对原有算法中孔隙中心表示方法不合理及缺少中轴线上各点坐标的问题提出改进,改进后的算法提出了孔隙中心的另一种表示方法,并且中轴线上任一点的坐标都被标出。在构建孔隙网络模型后利用该模型计算孔隙体积和喉径,并且针对过度分割的问题提出基于欧氏距离及基于分水岭算法的两种融合算法对孔隙和孔喉进行融合。     

A geomicrobiological study of soils collected from auriferous areas of Argentina

Geomicrobial and geochemical studies were carried out in Argentina (Patagonia, Chubut Province) on four Au and polymetallic sulfide vein-type deposits. A horizon soils were analyzed for Bacillus reacting to lecithin [Bacillus L.(+)], Au and 12 additional elements. In two of the four sampling sites, exhibiting known and relatively simple mineralized structures, Bacillus L.(+) populations are clearly related to Au, As, Pb, Zn, Cu-sulfide mineralization. In areas containing more complex mineralized structures, the spatial relationship between Bacillus L.(+) and metals in the A horizon is more difficult to interpret. Results of a factor analysis performed on all analytical data (n = 130) suggest a partial relationship between Bacillus L.(+) and Au-As-Y pedochemical associations located above known Au mineralization. Bacillus L.(+) was first analyzed in Argentina in December 1994 and re-analyzed in Belgium five to seven months later. Most of the Bacillus contents (85%) of the Belgian tests are higher than those determined in Argentina. The present results and data of a previous study in Mexico (Melchior et al., 1994a; Melchior et al., 1994b) suggest that this may be the result of temperature variations during sample storage between periods of microbial analysis. From a strictly analytical point of view, the geomicrobial method is not an accurate, reproducible technique. However, Bacillus L.(+) can be used as a microbiological indicator of Au and polymetallic mineralization at a reconnaissance-level regional survey. At a local scale, this microbiological tool should be combined with classical exploration techniques such as soil geochemistry. It is recommended that the collection of all A horizon samples (for microbial study) should be accompanied by B or C horizon soils (for potential geochemical study, after prioritizing targets) so that a second field sampling program does not have to be undertaken.     

Uppermost Tortonian to Quaternary depocentre migration related with segmentation of the strike-slip Palomares Fault Zone,Vera Basin (SE Spain)

The Palomares Fault Zone (PFZ) is one of the main strike-slip brittle shear zones found in the Betics. It is segmented in several faults that have been active between the Upper Tortonian and present day. Data from drill cores in the Palomares area have permitted us to define the geometry and location of sedimentary depocentres related with the PFZ. These data show an eastward displacement between the Upper Tortonian to Messinian and the Pliocene–Quaternary sedimentary depocentres, towards the presently active Arteal fault, which bounds the western mountain front of Sierra Almagrera, showing that deformation along this fault zone has migrated towards the east, from the Palomares segment, with its main activity during the Upper Tortonian and Messinian, towards the Arteal fault, active during the Pliocene and Quaternary. To cite this article: G. Booth-Rea et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

Isotopic and fluid-inclusion constraints on the formation of polymetallic vein deposits in the central Argentinian Patagonia

The lead isotope compositions of galena and the fluid-inclusion systematics of nine barite-bearing polymetallic (Au, Ag, Pb, Zn) deposits of the central Argentinian Patagonia (Chubut and Rio Negro provinces) have been investigated to constrain the compositions and sources of the mineralizing fluids. Most of the deposits occur as veins, with less common wall-rock disseminations and/or stockworks, and are low-sulfidation epithermal deposits hosted in Jurassic volcanic rocks. Fluid-inclusion homogenization temperatures (Th) from quartz and sphalerite from the deposits fall within the range of 100-300 °C, with the highest measured average temperatures for the most eastern deposits (Mina Angela - 298 °C; Cañadón Bagual - 343 °C). The salinities of the hydrothermal fluids at all deposits were low to moderate (⢪.4 equiv. wt% NaCl). Three groups of ore deposits can be defined on the basis of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios for galena and these show a general decrease from west to east (from 18.506 to 18.000). The central Argentinian Patagonia deposits have distinctly less radiogenic lead isotope compositions than similar deposits from Peru and Chile, except for the porphyry copper deposits of central and southern Peru. Galena from the Mina Angela deposit is characterized by very low radiogenic lead isotope compositions (18.000<²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb<18.037 and 38.03<²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb<38.09) and reflects interaction with Precambrian basement. The geographic trend in lead isotope compositions of both galena and whole rocks indicates a crustal contribution which increases eastwards, also reflected in the strontium-neodymium isotope systematics of the host lavas. Finally, due to the lack of precise age determinations for the central Patagonian polymetallic deposits, a potential link with Andean porphyry copper systems remains an open question.     

Middle Miocene to present plate tectonic history of the southern Central American Volcanic Arc

New mid Miocene to present plate tectonic reconstructions of the southern Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) reveal that the inception of Cocos Ridge subduction began no earlier than 3 Ma, and possibly as late as 2 Ma. The Cocos Ridge has been displaced from the Malpelo Ridge to the southeast since 9 Ma along the Panama Fracture Zone (PFZ) system. Ambiguous PFZ and Coiba Fracture Zone (CFZ) interaction since 9 Ma precludes conclusively establishing the age of initial Cocos Ridge subduction. Detailed reconstructions based on magnetic anomalies offshore reveal several other variations in subduction parameters beneath southern Central America that preceded subduction of the Cocos Ridge, including southeastward migration of the Nazca–Cocos–Caribbean triple junction along the Middle America Trench (MAT) from 12 Ma to present, and subduction of ≤2 km high scarps both parallel and perpendicular to the trench from 6 to 1 Ma.The timing of changes in subduction processes has commonly been determined by (and correlated with) geologic changes in the upper plate. However, reliable ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of these events has become available only recently [Abstr. Programs-Geol. Soc. Am. (2002)]. These new dates better constrain the magmatic and structural history of southern Costa Rica. Observations from this data set include: a gap in the volcanic record from 11 to 6 Ma, which coincides temporally with emplacement of most plutons in southern Costa Rica, normal arc volcanism ceased after 3.5 Ma in southern Costa Rica, and Pliocene (mostly 1.5 Ma) adakite volcanism was widely distributed from central Panama to southern Costa Rica (though volumetrically insignificant).This new data reveals that many geologic phenomena, commonly attributed to subduction and underplating of the buoyant Cocos Ridge, in fact precede inception of Cocos Ridge subduction and seem to correlate more favorably in time with earlier tectonic events. Adakite volcanic activity corresponds in space and time with the subduction of a large scarp associated with a tectonic boundary off southern Panama. Regional unconformities and an 11–6 Ma gap in arc volcanism match temporally with oblique subduction of the Nazca plate beneath central and southern Costa Rica. Cessation of volcanic activity, low-temperature cooling of plutons in the Cordillera de Talamanca (CT), and rapid increases in sedimentation in the fore-arc and back-arc basins coincide with passage of the Nazca–Cocos–Caribbean triple junction and initiation of subduction of “rough” crust associated with Cocos–Nazca rifting 3.5 Ma, closely followed by initial subduction of the Cocos Ridge 2–3 Ma. None of the aforementioned geologic events occurred at a time that would allow for underplating by the Cocos Ridge. Rather they are probably related to complex interactions with subduction of complicated plates offshore. All of the aforementioned events indicate that the southern Central American subduction system has been in flux since at least 12 Ma.     

Subsidence and strike-slip tectonism of the upper continental slope off Manzanillo, Mexico

The direction of convergence between the Rivera and North American plates becomes progressively more oblique (in a counter-clockwise sense as measured relative to the trench-normal direction) northwestward along the Jalisco subduction zone. By analogy to other subduction zones, the forces resulting from this distribution of convergence directions are expected to produce a NW moving, fore-arc sliver and a NW–SE stretching of the fore-arc area. Also, a series of roughly arc parallel strike-slip faults may form in the fore-arc area, both onshore and offshore, as is observed in the Aleutian arc.In the Jalisco subduction zone, the Jalisco block has been proposed to represent such a fore-arc sliver. However, this proposal has encountered one major problem. Namely, right-lateral strike-slip faulting within the fore-arc sliver, and between the fore-arc sliver and the North American plate, should be observed. However, evidence for the expected right-lateral strike-slip faulting is sparse. Some evidence for right-lateral strike-slip faulting along the Jalisco block–North American plate boundary (the Tepic–Zacoalco rift system) has been reported, although some disagreement exists. Right-lateral strike-slip faulting has also been reported within the interior of the Jalisco block and in the southern Colima rift, which forms the SE boundary of the Jalisco block.Threefold, multi-channel seismic reflection data were collected in the offshore area of the Jalisco subduction zone off Manzanillo in April 2002 during the FAMEX campaign of the N/O L'Atalante. These data provide additional evidence for recent strike-slip motion within the fore-arc region of the Jalisco subduction zone. This faulting offsets right-laterally a prominent horst block within the southern Colima rift, from which we conclude that the sense of motion along the faulting is dextral. These data also provide additional evidence for recent subsidence within the area offshore of Manzanillo, as has been proposed.