西南地区极端降水变化趋势

利用西南地区90个气象台站1970-2010年逐日降水量资料,依据世界气象组织(WMO)定义的连续5d最大降水量、总降水量、强降水比等6种极端降水指数,采用F检验、11a滑动平均等统计方法,研究了西南地区极端强降水变化趋势的时空变化特征。在时间上,西南地区近41年来冬、春、夏季连续5d最大降水量缓慢波动上升,秋季连续5d最大降水量呈下降趋势;强降水、降水强度及强降水比呈上升趋势,但总降水量和最长持续无降水日数呈减少趋势;另外,各极端降水指数还存在明显的年际、年代际变化。在空间上,西南地区极端降水变化趋势具有显著的地域差异,呈东西或西北东南向梯度变化特征。其中冬季连续5d最大降水量、降水强度、强降水比及最长持续无降水日数,在西南大部分地区呈增加趋势。秋季连续5d最大降水量与总降水量在西南大部分地区呈减少趋势。而春、夏季连续5d最大降水量和强降水的增减区域大致相当。     

A Storm Surge Intensity Classification Based on Extreme Water Level and Concomitant Wave Height

Storm surge is one of the predominant natural threats to coastal communities. Qingdao is located on the southern coast of the Shandong Peninsula in China. The storm surge disaster in Qingdao depends on various influencing factors such as the intensity, duration, and route of the passing typhoon, and thus a comprehensive understanding of natural coastal hazards is essential. In order to make up the defects of merely using the warning water level, this paper presents two statistical distribution models(Poisson Bi- variable Gumbel Logistic Distribution and Poisson Bi-variable Log-normal Distribution) to classify the intensity of storm surge. We emphasize the joint return period of typhoon-induced water levels and wave heights measured in the coastal area of Qingdao since 1949. The present study establishes a new criterion to classify the intensity grade of catastrophic storms using the typhoon surge estimated by the two models. A case study demonstrates that the new criterion is well defined in terms of probability concept, is easy to implement, and fits well the calculation of storm surge intensity. The procedures with the proposed statistical models would be useful for the disaster mitigation in other coastal areas influenced by typhoons.     

扬子陆核与陆缘新元古代岩浆事件对比及其构造意义——来自黄陵和汉南侵入杂岩ELA-ICPMS锆石U-Pb同位素年代学的约束

本文报道分别位于扬子克拉通核部和北缘的黄陵及汉南新元古代侵入杂岩体的惰性气体激光剥蚀-等离子体质谱(ELA-ICPMS)锆石U-Pb年代学研究及其构造意义分析.定年数据显示,黄陵地区的三斗坪、大老岭岩套分别形成于794±7和795±8Ma;晓峰浅成岩岩套形成于744±22Ma,不仅与震旦系莲沱组底部火山岩年龄相同,且同期热事件普遍记录于杂岩体内其它岩套.汉南杂岩体中五堵门岩体形成于789±10Ma,在分析误差范围内与三斗坪、大老岭岩套相同;天平河岩形成于863±10Ma,这是在扬子北缘首次识别出这期岩浆作用.在扬子陆核和北缘侵入杂岩中还分别发现了≈860Ma和945～931Ma的捕获锆石.此外,740Ma的后期热事件同样记录于汉南杂岩体,表明扬子陆块内部和北缘共同经历了790Ma的峰期中酸性岩浆作用和≈740Ma的后期强烈热改造事件,即事件具有克拉通范围的性质.与天平河岩体岩性相似、年龄相同的侵入岩体已在攀西多处地区发现,说明空间上860Ma岩浆作用在扬子北缘和西缘可能具延续性.作者认为,"晋宁期"具造山性质的构造运动开始的时间应以830Ma为限,于≈790Ma达到了以壳内物质重熔为主的大规模岩浆侵入事件的峰期,并在≈740Ma以短期内地壳运动由剧烈抬升向快速沉降的构造转换为造山作用结束的标志.本次研究成果为探讨扬子克拉通新元古代大规模岩浆作用与同期全球构造事件的相互关系提供了重要的同位素年代学约束.     

S, C, O, H Isotope Data and Noble Gas Studies of the Maoniuping LREE Deposit, Sichuan Province, China： A Mantle Connection for Mineralization

The Maoniuping REE deposit, located about 22 km to the southwest of Mianning, Sichuan Province, is the second largest light REE deposit in China, subsequent to the Bayan Obo Fe-Nb-REE deposit in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Tectonically, it is located in the transitional zone between the Panxi rift and the Longmenshan-Jinpingshan orogenic zone. It is a carbonatite vein-type deposit hosted in alkaline complex rocks. The bastnaesite-barite, bastnaesite-calcite, and bastnaesite-microcline lodes are the main three types of REE ore lodes. Among these, the first lode is distributed most extensively and its REE mineralization is the strongest. Theδ34Sv-CDT values of the barites in the ore of the deposit vary in a narrow range of +5.0 to +5.1‰in the bastnaesite-calcite lode and +3.3 to +5.9‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, showing the isotopic characteristics of magma-derived sulfur. Theδ13Cv-PDB values and theδ518OV-SMOW values in the bastnaesite-calcite lode range from -3.9 to -6.9‰and from +7.3 to +9.7‰, respectively, which fall into the range of "primary carbonatites", showing that carbon and oxygen in the ores of the Maoniuping deposit were derived mainly from a deep source. Theδ13Cv-PDB values of fluid inclusions vary from -3.0 to -5.6‰, with -3.0 to -4.0‰in the bastnaesite-calcite lode and -3.0 to -5.6‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, which show characteristics of mantle-derived carbon. TheδDv-SMOW values of fluid inclusions range from -57 to -88‰, with -63 to -86‰in the bastnaesite-calcite lode and -57 to -88‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, which show characteristics of mantle-derived hydrogen. Theδ18OH2OV-SMOW values vary from +7.4 to +8.6‰in the bastnaesite calcite lode, and +6.7 to +7.8‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, almost overlapping the range of +5.5 to +9.5‰for magmatic water. The 4He content, R/Ra ratios are (13.95 to 119.58×10-6 (cm3/g)STP and 0.02 to 0.11, respectively, and 40Ar/36Ar is 313±1 to 437±2. Considering the 4He increase caused by high contents of radioactive elements, a mantle-derived fluid probably exists in the inclusions in the fluorite, calcite and bastnaesite samples. The Maoniuping deposit and its associated carbonatite-alkaline complex were formed in 40.3 to 12.2 Ma according to K-Ar and U-Pb data. All these data suggest that large quantities of mantle fluids were involved in the metallogenic process of the Maoniuping REE deposit through a fault system.     

西南地区近40a气温变化的时空特征分析

利用西南地区96个测站近40 a的月平均、月平均最高、月平均最低气温资料,采用主成分分析、旋转主成分分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall等方法对西南地区气温变化的时空特征进行了分析.结果表明:西南地区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低气温的空间变化均具有很好的整体一致性,反映了年平均和年平均最高气温在1960s到1980s中期经历了一个由暖变冷的过程后,1980s后期开始呈现明显上升趋势,而年平均最低气温从1970s就开始呈单调上升趋势.青藏高原东侧山脉走向对气温变化的东西差异具有十分明显的影响.气温的主要空间异常可分为4个敏感区.小波分析表明,西南地区气温整体变化在近40 a主要存在准8 a的周期,其中四川盆地东部的气温在整个时段存在准20 a和准8～9 a的周期.     

东亚夏季风的自然变率——NCAR Cam3模拟结果分析

利用季节循环的全球观测海表温度及海冰驱动NCAR Cam3全球大气环流模式的100a模拟结果,通过定义东亚夏季风指数,分析了模拟的大气内部变化中东亚夏季风的变化特征。结果表明:模拟的东亚夏季风自然变率主要表现为3~7a较显著的年际周期,并具有较明显的年代际变化特征。在弱夏季风年代,亚洲大陆海平面气压增强,日本附近及东亚沿海地区海平面气压降低;500hPa位势高度上,欧洲地区为负高度距平,里海附近地区为正高度距平,日本及其以东太平洋为负高度距平,易形成类似欧亚(EU)型的遥相关波列。在强夏季风年代,其环流异常分布基本与弱夏季风年代相反。模拟的东亚夏季风变化与夏季大气内部500hPa高度场上EU型遥相关波列的关系密切。     

Single-Doppler Radar Observations of a High Precipitation Supercell Accompanying the 12 April 2003 Severe Squall Line in Fujian Province

In this study,single Doppler radar data were used to examine the structure and evolution of a high precipitation(HP) supercell embedded in a cold front near Jianyang,Fujian Province on 12 April 2003.The synoptic environment was characterized by high humidity at low levels,moderate CAPE(convective available potential energy;1601 J kg~(-1)),moderate wind shear(22 m s~(-1) in 0-5 km),and veering of the horizontal winds with height,similar to those HP supercells previously observed in midlatitudes.In additio...     

我国夏季降水与青藏高原春季NDVI的关系

利用1982年1月-2001年12月NDVI资料、台站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 通过相关分析和合成分析方法, 初步分析了我国夏季降水与青藏高原春季植被的关系及可能机理。结果发现:青藏高原春季NDVI与我国夏季降水相关系数从南到北呈西北-东南向“ + - +”带状分布。合成分析也表明:青藏高原春季NDVI大、小值年降水年内分布也存在明显差异。降水的上述差异, 可能是由于青藏高原春季NDVI变化导致热源效应改变, 引起大气环流变化造成的。对环流分析也发现:大气环流的变化特征与降水变化表现出很好的一致性。     

西南地区植被变化与气温及降水关系的初步分析

利用卫星遥感植被归一化指数（NDVI）资料和西南地区96个实测台站的月平均气温以及降水资料,初步分析了西南地区植被变化与气温及降水的关系。结果表明：近20年来西南地区植被覆盖状况较好,其中夏季植被覆盖最好,冬季植被分布空间差异最大;西南地区植被整体呈增加趋势,同时也存在较明显的季节和区域差异：春季西南大部分地区植被以增加为主,夏季、秋季全区以减少为主,冬季则以增加为主且存在明显的东西反向特征,东部减少西部增加。时滞互相关分析表明：西南地区11～2月份的植被对超前其1～2个月的气温以及夏季的植被对春季气温的敏感性比较大,3～4月的植被生长对上年夏季的降水敏感性比较大;同期时,1～3月植被和气温为正相关关系,6～9月的植被生长和降水为明显的负相关关系;在植被超前气候的条件下,1～2月的植被和滞后1～2个月的气温呈正相关关系,与滞后1个月的降水有明显的负相关关系。     

广州夏季雨水硝酸盐δ15N变化特征

通过对广州2007年夏季雨水硝酸盐δ15的研究,讨论了广州地区雨水硝酸盐的主要来源及与之有关的大气化学演变过程。雨水硝酸盐占δ15N的变化趋势与N2O5含量的相似。暗示雨水硝酸盐δ15N与氮氧化合物的大气化学过程之间存在某种联系。白天雨水硝酸盐δ15N值偏低,与OH自由基氧化NOx生成硝酸盐的“白天反应”为主要反应相一致;18：00以后硝酸盐δ15N值呈升高趋势,则与N2O5累积的“夜间反应”成为主导反应相一致。因“白天反应”生成的HNO3的δ15N值受同位素分馏影响较小,白天雨水硝酸盐占δ15N值更能准确反映大气NOx的来源。白天雨水硝酸盐占δ15N平均值为2．5‰±2．1‰,表明除火力发电厂和机动车尾气排放来源外,雷电以及海源对大气NOx可能也有潜在贡献。