The 8.2-ka abrupt climate change event in Brown's Lake, northeast Ohio

Many Northern Hemisphere paleoclimatic records, including ice cores, speleothems, lake sediments, ocean cores and glacier chronologies, indicate an abrupt cooling event about 8200 cal yr BP. A new well-dated series of sediment cores taken from Brown's Lake, a kettle in Northeast Ohio, shows two closely spaced intervals of loess deposition during this time period. The source of loess is uncertain; however, it is likely from an abandoned drainage and former glacial lake basin located to the north of the stagnant ice topography that gave rise to the kettle lake. Strong visual stratigraphy, loss on ignition data and sediment grain size analyses dated with 3 AMS radiocarbon dates place the two intervals of loess deposition between 8950 and 8005 cal yr BP. The possibility of a two-phase abrupt climate change at this time is a finding that has been suggested in other research. This record adds detail to the spatial extent and timing as well as possible structure of the 8.2-ka abrupt climate change event.     

America's Changing Farmscape: A Study of Agricultural Tourism in Michigan*

Agricultural tourism incorporates visits to farms for the purposes of on‐site retail purchases, enjoyment, and education. Long popular in the European Union (EU), agritourism is gaining popularity throughout the United States. Interest has grown as a result of stagnant grain prices, rising farm costs, and growing international competition. For rural areas seeking new economic options, the potential of these operations to generate new sources of income through sales and horizontal linkages to other tourism‐based activities has sparked interest beyond the farm gate. This article, based on a survey and a statistical analysis of 300 agritourism operations in Michigan, summarizes factors associated with successful operations.     

Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models

This paper describes a data assimilation method that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states in a mountainous catchment in Colorado. The assimilation method uses SCA information as part of an ensemble Kalman filter to alter the sub-basin distribution of snow as well as the basin water balance. This method permits an optimal combination of model simulations and observations, as well as propagation of information across model states. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with a fairly simple snowpack/water-balance model to evaluate effects of the data assimilation scheme on simulations of streamflow. The assimilation of SCA information results in minor improvements in the accuracy of streamflow simulations near the end of the snowmelt season. The small effect from SCA assimilation is initially surprising. It can be explained both because a substantial portion of snowmelts before any bare ground is exposed, and because the transition from 100% to 0% snow coverage occurs fairly quickly. Both of these factors are basin-dependent. Satellite SCA information is expected to be most useful in basins where snow cover is ephemeral. The data assimilation strategy presented in this study improved the accuracy of the streamflow simulation, indicating that SCA is a useful source of independent information that can be used as part of an integrated data assimilation strategy.     

Software framework for distributed experimental–computational simulation of structural systems

Supported by the recent advancement of experimental test methods, numerical simulation, and high‐speed communication networks, it is possible to distribute geographically the testing of structural systems using hybrid experimental–computational simulation. One of the barriers for this advanced testing is the lack of flexible software for hybrid simulation using heterogeneous experimental equipment. To address this need, an object‐oriented software framework is designed, developed, implemented, and demonstrated for distributed experimental–computational simulation of structural systems. The software computes the imposed displacements for a range of test methods and co‐ordinates the control of local and distributed configurations of experimental equipment. The object‐oriented design of the software promotes the sharing of modules for experimental equipment, test set‐ups, simulation models, and test methods. The communication model for distributed hybrid testing is similar to that used for parallel computing to solve structural simulation problems. As a demonstration, a distributed pseudodynamic test was conducted using a client–server approach, in which the server program controlled the test equipment in Japan and the client program performed the computational simulation in the United States. The distributed hybrid simulation showed that the software framework is flexible and reliable. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Control of Cl production in carbonaceous shales by phosphate minerals

When using ³⁶Cl to date very old groundwater in regional aquifer systems, knowledge of the subsurface ³⁶Cl input into the aquifer system is essential. Although ³⁶Cl can be produced through nuclear reactions in the subsurface, in many situations, the input of ³⁶Cl into sedimentary aquifer systems by this avenue of production can be neglected. This is a valid assumption when investigating long-flowpath groundwater systems composed of sandstones, limestones, and shales of typical composition. These rock types are not sufficiently enriched in radioactive elements to produce significant ³⁶Cl in the deep subsurface. Carbonaceous shales, on the other hand, can concentrate the radioactive elements necessary to produce significant ³⁶Cl in the deep subsurface. Chlorine-36 ratios (³⁶Cl/Cl) for a suite of Late Devonian and Pennsylvanian carbonaceous shales were calculated from bulk-rock chemistry as well as measured using accelerator mass spectrometry. The poor agreement between calculated and measured ratios is the result of the assumption of chemical homogeneity used by the calculation algorithm, an assumption that was not satisfied by the carbonaceous shales. In these shales, organic matter, clay minerals, and accessory minerals are heterogeneously distributed and are physically distinct on a micron-order scale. Although organic matter and clay minerals constitute the overwhelming bulk of the shales, it is the phosphate minerals that are most important in enhancing, and suppressing, ³⁶Cl production. Minerals such as apatite and carbonate-apatite (francolite)—by including uranium, rare earth elements (REEs), and halogens—have an important impact on both neutron production and thermal neutron absorption. By incorporating both uranium and fluorine, phosphate minerals act as neutron production centers in the shale, increasing the probability of ³⁶Cl production. By incorporating REEs and chlorine, phosphate minerals also act to shield ³⁵Cl from the thermal neutron flux, effectively suppressing the production of ³⁶Cl. To reconcile the measured ³⁶Cl ratios with the ratios calculated assuming chemical homogeneity, the shales were artificially split into three fractions: organic, clay mineral, and phosphate mineral. Neutron production was calculated separately for each fraction, and the calculation results demonstrated that the phosphate fraction exerted much more control on the ³⁶Cl ratio than the organic or clay mineral fractions. By varying the uranium and chlorine contents in the phosphate fraction, a new, heterogeneous ³⁶Cl ratio was calculated that agreed with the measured ratio for the overwhelming majority of the carbonaceous shales. When using rock chemistry to calculate the ³⁶Cl ratio, rock types that show mineralogical heterogeneity on a micron scale can be divided into bulk fractions and accessory fractions for separate calculations of neutron production and neutron absorption. In this manner, a more accurate, heterogeneous ³⁶Cl ratio can be calculated for the rock as a whole.     

Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA

Landslides in the hilly terrain along the Kansas and Missouri rivers in northeastern Kansas have caused millions of dollars in property damage during the last decade. To address this problem, a statistical method called multiple logistic regression has been used to create a landslide-hazard map for Atchison, Kansas, and surrounding areas. Data included digitized geology, slopes, and landslides, manipulated using ArcView GIS. Logistic regression relates predictor variables to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of landslides within geographic cells and uses the relationship to produce a map showing the probability of future landslides, given local slopes and geologic units. Results indicated that slope is the most important variable for estimating landslide hazard in the study area. Geologic units consisting mostly of shale, siltstone, and sandstone were most susceptible to landslides. Soil type and aspect ratio were considered but excluded from the final analysis because these variables did not significantly add to the predictive power of the logistic regression. Soil types were highly correlated with the geologic units, and no significant relationships existed between landslides and slope aspect.     

Reserve Growth in Oil Fields of West Siberian Basin, Russia

Although reserve (or field) growth has proved to be an important contributing factor in adding new reserves in mature petroleum basins, it is a poorly understood phenomenon. Although several papers have been published on the U.S. fields, there are only a few publications on fields in other petroleum provinces. This paper explores the reserve growth in the 42 largest West Siberian oil fields that contain about 55% of the basin's total oil reserves.The West Siberian oil fields show 13-fold reserve growth 20 years after the discovery year and only about 2-fold growth after the first production year. This difference in growth is attributed to extensive exploration and field delineation activities between discovery and the first production year. Because of the uncertainty in the length of evaluation time and in reported reserves during this initial period, reserve growth based on the first production year is more reliable for model development. However, reserve growth models based both on discovery year and first production year show rapid growth in the first few years and slower growth in the following years. In contrast, the reserve growth patterns for the conterminous United States and offshore Gulf of Mexico show a steady reserve increase throughout the productive lives of the fields. The different reserve booking requirements and the lack of capital investment for improved reservoir management and production technologies in West Siberia are the probable causes for the difference in the growth patterns.The models based on the first production year predict that the reserve growth potential in the 42 largest oil fields of West Siberia for a five-year period (1998–2003) ranges from 270–330 million barrels or 0.34–0.42% per year. For a similar five-year period (1996–2001), models for the conterminous United States predict a growth of 0.54–0.75% per year.     

Channel network morphology and sediment dynamics under alternating periglacial and temperate regimes: a numerical simulation study

The occurrence of permafrost in a highly permeable catchment has a profound effect on runoff generation. The presence of permafrost effectively makes the subsoil impermeable. Therefore, overland flow can be the dominant runoff-generating process during periglacial conditions. The absence of permafrost will promote subsurface drainage and, therefore, saturation excess overland flow can become the dominant runoff-generating process during temperate conditions. In this paper, we present a numerical modelling study in which the effect of alternating climate-related phases of permafrost and nonpermafrost on catchment hydrology and geomorphology is investigated. Special attention is given to the characteristics of the channel network being formed, and the sediment yield from these catchments. We find that channel networks expand under permafrost conditions and contract under nonpermafrost conditions. A change from permafrost to nonpermafrost conditions is characterised by a decrease in sediment yield, while a change towards permafrost conditions is marked by a peak in sediment yield. This peak is explained by the build-up of a reservoir of erodible sediment during the nonpermafrost phase. The driving force behind this reservoir build-up may be local base-level change due to tectonic uplift or eustacy. We present a number of experiments, which show the details of this process. The results are in line with existing reconstructions of climate and fluvial dynamics during the Pleistocene in Europe and offer a new explanation to these observations.     

Phylogeny, diet, and habitat of an extinct ground sloth from Cuchillo Curá, Neuquén Province, southwest Argentina

Advancements in ancient DNA analyses now permit comparative molecular and morphological studies of extinct animal dung commonly preserved in caves of semiarid regions. These new techniques are showcased using a unique dung deposit preserved in a late glacial vizcacha (Lagidium sp.) midden from a limestone cave in southwestern Argentina (38.5° S). Phylogenetic analyses of the mitochondrial DNA show that the dung originated from a small ground sloth species not yet represented by skeletal material in the region, and not closely related to any of the four previously sequenced extinct and extant sloth species. Analyses of pollen and plant cuticles, as well as analyses of the chloroplast DNA, show that the Cuchillo Curá ground sloth browsed on many of the same herb, grass, and shrub genera common at the site today, and that its habitat was treeless Patagonian scrub-steppe. We envision a day when molecular analyses are used routinely to supplement morphological identifications and possibly to provide a time-lapse view of molecular diversification.     

Multiple Sources for Sea-Rafted Loisels Pumice, New Zealand

Sea-rafted Loisels Pumice is one of the few stratigraphic markers used to correlate late Holocene coastal deposits in New Zealand. Along with underlying sea-rafted products of the local Taupo eruption of ca. 1800 yr B.P., these events have been used to bracket the first arrival of humans at New Zealand. Loisels Pumice is dacitic to rhyolitic (SiO₂63–78 wt%) in composition, but individual clasts are homogeneous (SiO₂range ± 1 wt%). Characteristics include very low K₂O (0.5–1.75 wt%) and Rb (<25 ppm) and a mineralogy dominated by calcic and mafic xenocrysts. Similar features are shared by pumices of the Tonga–Kermadec arc, suggesting a common tholeiitic oceanic source. Interclast diversity of Loisels Pumice suggests that it is the product of several eruptive events from different volcanoes. The differences in glass and mineral compositions found at various sites can be explained if the deposits are from different events. A multisource origin can also partially explain the discrepancy in reported¹⁴C ages (ca. 1500–600 yr B.P.) from different localities. Therefore, the value of Loisels Pumice as a stratigraphic marker is questionable, and it does not constrain the arrival of humans. The predominant westward drift of historic Tonga–Kermadec arc pumices and prevailing ocean currents suggest a long anticlockwise semicircular transport route into the Tasman Sea before sea-rafted pumice arrival in New Zealand. The diversity of the pumices indicates that silicic eruptions frequently occur from the predominantly basic oceanic volcanoes.