Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

An Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) is developed and used to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. The ACCI is defined as the difference between the means of ensembles of climate simulations with and without anthropogenic gases and aerosols. This index indicates that the bulk of the current anthropogenic warming has occurred in the past four decades, which enables improved confidence in assessing hurricane changes as it removes many of the data issues from previous eras. We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per °C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins. The observed increase in Category 4–5 hurricanes may not continue at the same rate with future global warming. The analysis suggests that following an initial climate increase in intense hurricane proportions a saturation level will be reached beyond which any further global warming will have little effect.     

Measuring Change in Place Values for Environmental and Natural Resource Planning Using Public Participation GIS (PPGIS): Results and Challenges for Longitudinal Research

Landscape values are a type of place value and are identified and mapped using public participation GIS (PPGIS). PPGIS engages nonexperts to identify important spatial information for environmental or natural resource planning. In 1998, we used PPGIS to identify landscape values for the Chugach National Forest (Alaska) plan revision process. In 2012, we conducted a longitudinal study of the same national forest using Internet PPGIS to identify changes in landscape values. The empirical results indicate stability in landscape values both in importance and spatial distribution. However, the use of different PPGIS methods (paper map vs. Internet) in the longitudinal study also introduced challenges in interpreting and explaining the spatial results. We discuss trade-offs in conducting longitudinal PPGIS research using mixed methods. PPGIS appears well suited for public lands planning, and national forest planning in particular, but barriers to use, such as regulatory approval, remain formidable.     

A Review of “Hot,Flat and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution—And How It Can Renew America”

Based on a county-level Chinese industry survey data set, this article aims to extend the agglomeration literature by applying and comparing selected combination indexes of geographical concentration that incorporate both traditional indexes of inequality and measures of spatial autocorrelation at the global level and by applying and comparing a new measure, the focal location quotient (FLQ), to the local Moran's I, a commonly used local indicator of spatial association, at the county level. At the global level, the results show that the combination indexes used are generally effective for comparing the extent of geographical concentration across industries, and they could serve as useful dependent variables in modeling agglomeration effects across industries. At the local level, specific spatial patterns of production concentrations are identified for textiles, machinery, food manufacturing, and the electronics and telecommunication industries. FLQ tends to generate more generalized patterns than does the local Moran statistic. Mapping the local statistics is useful in supplementing the global measures, and those maps tend to support the results of the global combination indexes.     

A Survey of Seasonal and Permanent Landowners in Wisconsin's Northwoods: Following Dillman and Then Some

This article demonstrates the importance of obtaining high response rates for surveys of the general population while illustrating that survey design and procedures that adopt and modify factors known to positively affect survey returns can lead to high response rates, even for a lengthy survey of the general population. Using an expanded version of Dillman's “tailored design method,” we achieved an 82.8% response rate for a general population survey of landowners. When comparing early respondents to late respondents we found significant differences on several sociodemographic variables as well as a number of attitudinal measures central to the research project. In addition, costs are compared between this methodology and a more typical four-wave mailing. Our survey further highlights the importance of improving our understanding of the social changes taking place in rural communities and the implications these changes can have on natural resources management.

This article originally published in Society & Natural Resources, Vol. 17, Issue 5, pages 431–442, 2004. DOI: 10.1080/08941920490430223     

Hydrologic functioning of the deep critical zone and contributions to streamflow in a high‐elevation catchment: Testing of multiple conceptual models

High‐elevation mountain catchments are often subject to large climatic and topographic gradients. Therefore, high‐density hydrogeochemical observations are needed to understand water sources to streamflow and the temporal and spatial behaviour of flow paths. These sources and flow paths vary seasonally, which dictates short‐term storage and the flux of water in the critical zone (CZ) and affect long‐term CZ evolution. This study utilizes multiyear observations of chemical compositions and water residence times from the Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory, Tucson, Arizona to develop and evaluate competing conceptual models of seasonal streamflow generation. These models were tested using endmember mixing analysis, baseflow recession analysis, and tritium model “ages” of various catchment water sources. A conceptual model involving four endmembers (precipitation, soil water, shallow, and deep groundwater) provided the best match to observations. On average, precipitation contributes 39–69% (55 ± 16%), soil water contributes 25–56% (41 ± 16%), shallow groundwater contributes 1–5% (3 ± 2%), and deep groundwater contributes ~0–3% (1 ± 1%) towards annual streamflow. The mixing space comprised two principal planes formed by (a) precipitation‐soil water‐deep groundwater (dry and summer monsoon season samples) and (b) precipitation‐soil water‐shallow groundwater (winter season samples). Groundwater contribution was most important during the wet winter season. During periods of high dynamic groundwater storage and increased hydrologic connectivity (i.e., spring snowmelt), stream water was more geochemically heterogeneous, that is, geochemical heterogeneity of stream water is storage‐dependent. Endmember mixing analysis and ³H model age results indicate that only 1.4 ± 0.3% of the long‐term annual precipitation becomes deep CZ groundwater flux that influences long‐term deep CZ development through both intercatchment and intracatchment deep groundwater flows.     

Whole-lake addition of coarse woody habitat: response of fish populations

Lakeshore residential development (LRD) reduces coarse woody habitat (CWH) in lakes resulting in negative effects on fishes. We tested whether the addition of CWH could reverse those effects. We added CWH to Camp Lake, a lake with CWH abundances similar to developed lakes, following 2 years of study of the fish populations in the reference and treatment basins. Both basins were monitored for 4 years following the manipulation. Specifically, we tested for changes in the population dynamics (densities, size-structure, growth), diet, and behavior (habitat use) of bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). CWH addition had no discernible effect on fish population dynamics. Diet and behavioral responses were more pronounced in the treatment basin. Prey diversity and availability increased. Piscivory increased, with decreased reliance upon terrestrial prey, for largemouth bass. Habitat use was positively correlated with CWH branching complexity and abundance. Our study suggests that negative effects observed in fish populations through CWH reductions cannot be reversed in the short-term by adding CWH. We recommend that regulations governing the LRD process be protective of CWH.