Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than ?1.7 W m^?2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC.     

Affluence drives the global displacement of land use

Increasing affluence is often postulated as a main driver for the human footprint on biologically productive areas, identified among the main causes of biodiversity loss, but causal relationships are obscured by international trade. Here, we trace the use of land and ocean area through international supply chains to final consumption, modeling agricultural, food, and forestry products on a high level of resolution while also including the land requirements of manufactured goods and services. In 2004, high-income countries required more biologically productive land per capita than low-income countries, but this connection could only be identified when land used to produce internationally traded products was taken into account, because higher-income countries tend to displace a larger fraction of land use. The equivalent land and ocean area footprint of nations increased by a third for each doubling of income, with all variables analyzed on a per capita basis. This increase came largely from imports, which increased proportionally to income. Export depended mostly on the capacity of countries to produce useful biomass, the biocapacity. Our analysis clearly shows that countries with a high biocapacity per capita tend to spare more land for nature. Biocapacity per capita can be increased through more intensive production or by reducing population density. The net displacement of land use from high-income to low-income countries amounted to 6% of the global land demand, even though high-income countries had more land available per capita than low-income countries. In particular, Europe and Japan placed high pressure on ecosystems in lower-income countries.     

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.     

The effects of ionic strength and organic matter on virus inactivation at low temperatures: general likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) as an alternative to least-squares parameter optimization for the fitting of virus inactivation models

This study examined how the inactivation of bacteriophage MS2 in water was affected by ionic strength (IS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using static batch inactivation experiments at 4 °C conducted over a period of 2 months. Experimental conditions were characteristic of an operational managed aquifer recharge (MAR) scheme in Uppsala, Sweden. Experimental data were fit with constant and time-dependent inactivation models using two methods: (1) traditional linear and nonlinear least-squares techniques; and (2) a Monte-Carlo based parameter estimation technique called generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The least-squares and GLUE methodologies gave very similar estimates of the model parameters and their uncertainty. This demonstrates that GLUE can be used as a viable alternative to traditional least-squares parameter estimation techniques for fitting of virus inactivation models. Results showed a slight increase in constant inactivation rates following an increase in the DOC concentrations, suggesting that the presence of organic carbon enhanced the inactivation of MS2. The experiment with a high IS and a low DOC was the only experiment which showed that MS2 inactivation may have been time-dependent. However, results from the GLUE methodology indicated that models of constant inactivation were able to describe all of the experiments. This suggested that inactivation time-series longer than 2 months were needed in order to provide concrete conclusions regarding the time-dependency of MS2 inactivation at 4 °C under these experimental conditions.     

Geometallurgical Approach for Implications of Ore Blending on Cyanide Leaching and Adsorption Behavior of Witwatersrand Gold Ores,South Africa

Gold production in South Africa is projected to continue its decline in future, and prospects for discovery of new high-grade deposits are limited. Many of the mining companies have resorted to mining and processing low-grade and complex gold ores. Such ores are technically challenging to process, which results in low recovery rates, excessive reagent consumption and high operating costs when compared to free-milling gold ores. In the Witwatersrand mines, options of blending low-grade gold ores with high-grade ores exist. Although it is well known that most of the Witwatersrand gold ores are highly amenable to gold cyanidation, not much is known on the leachability of blended ores, especially the effects of mineralogical and metallurgical variability between different gold ores. In this study, we apply a geometallurgical approach to investigate mineralogical and metallurgical factors that influence the leaching of blended ores in a set of bottle shaker and reactor column tests. Three gold-bearing conglomerate units, so-called reefs, i.e., Carbon Leader Reef, Ventersdorp Contact Reef and the Black Reef, all in the Carletonville goldfield, were sampled. The ores were prepared using a terminator jaw crusher followed by vertical spindle pulverizer (20 kg aliquot) and high-pressure grinding rolls (80 kg aliquot). Mineralogical analysis was conducted using a range of complementary tools such as optical microscopy, QEMSCAN and micro–XCT. The results show that Witwatersrand gold ores are amenable to the process of ore blending. Some of the ores, however, contain impervious inert gangue and reactive ore minerals. Leach solution can only access gold locked in impervious gangue minerals through HPGR-induced pores and/or cracks. The optimum ore blending ratio of the bottle shaker experiments (p80?=???75 μm) comprises 60% Carbon Leader Reef, 20% Ventersdorp Contact Reef and 20% Black Reef and yields 92% recovered Au over a leach period of 40 h. Blended ores with high carbonaceous material (>?1 wt% carbonaceous material, (Black Reef?=?36–60%) yield lower recoveries of 60–69% Au). Ore leaching at the mixed-bed reactor column (??75 μm and ??5.6/+?4 mm) yields about 70% over a leach period of two weeks. We therefore suggest that the feasibility of ore blending is strongly controlled by the mineralogy of the constituent ores and that a mixed-bed reactor may be a viable alternative method for leaching of the low-grade Witwatersrand gold ores. Material from certain reefs, such as the Black Reef, has synergistic/antagonistic (nonadditive) blending effects. The overall implication of this study is that ore blending ratios, effects of comminution on mineral liberation, an association of gold with other minerals, and gold adsorption behavior will greatly inform future technology choices in the area of geometallurgy.

     

Distribution and retention of Petrolisthes armatus in a coastal plain estuary: The role of vertical movement in larval transport

Since transport of planktonic larvae is essential to the maintenance and expansion of many marine species, we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of green porcelain crab Petrolisthes armatus (Gibbes, 1850) larvae and the possible underlying physical and behavioral mechanisms using a combination of field observations and numerical modeling. The field study consisted of observations of larval abundance and distribution as well as hydrographic surveys of the Satilla River estuary on the east coast of the USA in August 2006. Larvae were found throughout the water column within the tributaries but primarily at depth in the main river. A numerical model was used to examine the effect of flow and possible larval behavior responsible for the observed distribution and the consequences for larval retention in the estuary. Model results that included downward larval movement are consistent with the field observations, supporting the hypothesis that P. armatus larvae vertically migrate within the water column, which aids in their retention within the estuary.     

A 3.5 ka record of paleoenvironments and human occupation at Angkor Borei,Mekong Delta,southern Cambodia

Microfossil and sedimentological data from a 3.1 m core extracted from a reservoir (baray) at the ancient Cambodian settlement of Angkor Borei in the Mekong Delta have provided a continuous record of sedimentation and paleoenvironments dating from about 2000 cal yr B.C. Palynological data indicate that for much of the cal. 1st and 2nd millennia B.C. mangroves dominated the regional vegetation, while extensively and regularly burnt grasslands dominated the local vegetation. Turbid, nutrient‐rich standing water characterized the core locality, perhaps suggesting a connection with rivers in the area. An abrupt change during the cal. 5th to 6th centuries A.D. involved a dramatic reduction in grasslands and the expansion of secondary forest or re‐growth taxa. These changes are synchronous with an abrupt decline in the concentration of microscopic charcoal particles in the sediments, and the colonization of the core locality by swamp forest plants. These changes are taken to indicate a shift in land‐use strategies or, possibly, a period of land abandonment. The age for the construction of the baray is interpreted to be in the 17th–19th centuries, but this dating remains speculative. Construction of the Angkor Borei baray exploited a preexisting body of standing water, so its construction was fundamentally different from the methods used at the Angkorian capital in northern Cambodia. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.