Predicting Aquifer Response Time for Application in Catchment Modeling

It is well established that changes in catchment land use can lead to significant impacts on water resources. Where land‐use changes increase evapotranspiration there is a resultant decrease in groundwater recharge, which in turn decreases groundwater discharge to streams. The response time of changes in groundwater discharge to a change in recharge is a key aspect of predicting impacts of land‐use change on catchment water yield. Predicting these impacts across the large catchments relevant to water resource planning can require the estimation of groundwater response times from hundreds of aquifers. At this scale, detailed site‐specific measured data are often absent, and available spatial data are limited. While numerical models can be applied, there is little advantage if there are no detailed data to parameterize them. Simple analytical methods are useful in this situation, as they allow the variability in groundwater response to be incorporated into catchment hydrological models, with minimal modeling overhead. This paper describes an analytical model which has been developed to capture some of the features of real, sloping aquifer systems. The derived groundwater response timescale can be used to parameterize a groundwater discharge function, allowing groundwater response to be predicted in relation to different broad catchment characteristics at a level of complexity which matches the available data. The results from the analytical model are compared to published field data and numerical model results, and provide an approach with broad application to inform water resource planning in other large, data‐scarce catchments.     

A desktop image processing and photogrammetric method for rapid volcanic hazard mapping: application to air-photo interpretation of Mount Pelée,Martinique

 A desktop image processing and photogrammetric method was developed for digitizing black-and-white aerial photographs. The technique was applied to airborne optical images of Mt. Pelée, Martinique, a historically active volcano in the tropical Lesser Antilles island arc, to evaluate its utility for rapid geologic mapping and hazard assessment in vegetated areas. The digital approach provides several advantages over traditional air-photo interpretation by allowing for change detection in time-series images, morphologic characterization, development of digital elevation models from stereopairs, and geo-referencing with other digital data sets. A digital mosaic of Mt. Pelée was created from air photos acquired in 1951, which covered the region affected by the 1902 eruption. Severe mismatches occurred along edges of adjacent photographs prior to correction, which precluded quantitative morphologic analysis of the volcanic edifice. Geometric corrections and histogram equalization of digitized air photos allowed creation of a continuous mosaic. Comparison of the mosaic and a map based on differences in gray scale and texture to a volcanostratigraphic map revealed that not only the various deposits produced during the 1902 event were easily differentiated, but that older eruptive products were identified, suggesting that this approach may be used for rapid hazard evaluation of historically active tropical volcanoes. Received: 22 January 1996 / Accepted: 26 July 1996     

Basin inversion by distributed deformation: the southern margin of the Bristol Channel Basin, England

Several models of basin inversion described in the literature are tested in a study of Triassic and Early Jurassic strata exposed along the southern margin of the Bristol Channel Basin in Somerset, England that has been exhumed by <3 km. Two key features of the superbly exposed normal faults are that they formed at several times during basin evolution—not during Triassic to Early Jurassic growth, but during Late Jurassic rifting, and during and after inversion; and that >95% of them are still in net extension, despite widespread kinematic evidence for reverse reactivation. When coupled with the general absence of thin-skinned thrusts and the widespread occurrence of regional contractional folds, it appears that none of three main inversion models—the fault-reactivation model, the thin-skinned model and the buttress model—are by themselves applicable. We erect a new model of basin inversion, the distributed deformation model, which consists of three stages of basin inversion. Stage one involved early partial reactivation of large-displacement steep normal faults. Stage two was dominated by folding, wherein fault blocks underwent oblique (non-coaxial) shortening by map scale folding, accompanied by formation of outer arc normal faults, minor cleavage and neoformed thrusts. Stage three involved reverse reactivation of outer arc normal faults and activation of oblique and strike-slip faults that partitioned deformation into compartments.     

Particle breakage of uniformly graded carbonate sands in dry/wet condition subjected to compression/shear tests

The behaviour of a granular material is primarily affected by its particle size distribution (PSD), which is not necessarily a soil constant as assumed in traditional soil mechanics. The PSD may change over time due to mechanical as well as environmental actions. In this study, a series of ring shear tests and one-dimensional compression tests were completed on carbonate sand, in both dry and saturated conditions. Samples were prepared with different initial uniform gradings, to investigate: (1) the influence of the saturation state and initial grading on mechanical and deformational behaviour of carbonate sands and (2) the evolution of the PSD as a result of breakage. The ring shear tests show that the residual friction angle remains almost constant, but dilatancy reduces with increasing saturation degree. In the one-dimensional compression test, the yield stress decreases with increasing saturation degree, but the compressibility (as defined by C_c) remains almost constant, irrespective of the saturation state. Moreover, saturated samples suffer more breakage than dry samples during ring shear tests, while there is no obvious effect of saturation state on particle breakage in one-dimensional compression. A recently proposed PSD model with only two parameters (λ_p and κ_p) is employed to model the evolution of PSD, as it can more broadly capture the whole PSD throughout the breakage process than existing breakage indices. Test results demonstrate that parameter λ_p is linearly related to Einav’s breakage index \( B_{\text{r}}^{*} \) and is dependent on initial grading, but independent of test mode. Parameter κ_p is in power relationship with \( B_{\text{r}}^{*} \) and is independent of initial grading or test mode. The evolution of parameters λ_p and κ_p is related to the input work for both ring shear and compression tests, with λ_p being hyperbolically related to input work and κ_p in power relationship with input work. Using such an evolution law provides an alternative approach to capture the effects of particle breakage in constitutive models.

     

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than ?1.7 W m^?2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC.     

Affluence drives the global displacement of land use

Increasing affluence is often postulated as a main driver for the human footprint on biologically productive areas, identified among the main causes of biodiversity loss, but causal relationships are obscured by international trade. Here, we trace the use of land and ocean area through international supply chains to final consumption, modeling agricultural, food, and forestry products on a high level of resolution while also including the land requirements of manufactured goods and services. In 2004, high-income countries required more biologically productive land per capita than low-income countries, but this connection could only be identified when land used to produce internationally traded products was taken into account, because higher-income countries tend to displace a larger fraction of land use. The equivalent land and ocean area footprint of nations increased by a third for each doubling of income, with all variables analyzed on a per capita basis. This increase came largely from imports, which increased proportionally to income. Export depended mostly on the capacity of countries to produce useful biomass, the biocapacity. Our analysis clearly shows that countries with a high biocapacity per capita tend to spare more land for nature. Biocapacity per capita can be increased through more intensive production or by reducing population density. The net displacement of land use from high-income to low-income countries amounted to 6% of the global land demand, even though high-income countries had more land available per capita than low-income countries. In particular, Europe and Japan placed high pressure on ecosystems in lower-income countries.     

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.