Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy

Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1% of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.     

Abundance and distribution of ichthyoplankton in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, 1989–1990

An ichthyoplankton survey (18 stations in seven sampling sectors) was conducted in Narragansett Bay in 1990 to provide information on abundance, distribution, and seasonal occurrence of eggs and larvae of estuarine fishes, including seasonal migrants. An additional goal was to examine changes in species composition, abundance, and distribution occurring since the last baywide survey in 1972–73. The taxonomic composition of eggs and larvae in 1990 (41 species in 25 families from 684 plankton samples) and in 1972–73 (43 species in 28 families from 6900 samples) was similar. Maximum abundance of fish eggs occurred in June and larvae in July, minimum abundance in September to February. Species diversity was greatest in May–July and lowest during January in both surveys. However, egg and larval densities in 1990 were considerably lower than in 1972–73. Bay anchovy, tautog, and cunner accounted for 86% of the eggs and 87% of the larvae in the bay in 1990. These three species accounted for only 55% of the eggs and 51% of the larvae in 1972–73, with menhaden accounting for another 18% of the eggs and 34% of the larvae. Searobins, scup, and butterfish eggs were common in 1973 (19%) but rare in 1990 (2%). Ichthyoplankton abundance for several of the most abundant species was significantly lower (p<0.05) in the Providence River, upper bay, and Greenwich Bay in 1990 than in 1972–73. Density of fish eggs and larvae in the lower portions of the bay was lower in 1990 for some species but not others. Distribution data suggested a general down-bay shift in density in 1990. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY085 00015     

A New Rapid Method for Measuring the Vertical Head Profile

This study describes a new technique for measuring the head profile in a geologic formation. The technique provides rapid, low cost information on the depth of water‐producing zones and aquitards in heterogeneous aquifers, yielding estimates of hydraulic heads in each zone while identifying any potential for cross contamination between zones. The measurements can be performed in a typical borehole in just a few hours. The procedure uses both the continuous transmissivity profile obtained by the installation (eversion) of a flexible borehole liner into an open borehole and the subsequent removal (inversion) of the same liner from the borehole. The method is possible because of the continuous transmissivity profile (T profile described by Keller et al. 2014) obtained by measuring the rate of liner eversion under a constant driving head. The hydraulic heads of producing zones are measured using the reverse head profile (RHP) method (patent no. 9,008,971) based on a stepwise inversion of the borehole liner. As each interval of the borehole is uncovered by inversion of the liner, the head beneath the liner is allowed to equilibrate to a steady‐state value. The individual hydraulic heads contributing to each measurement are calculated using the measured transmissivity for each zone. Application of the RHP method to a sedimentary bedrock borehole in New Jersey verified that it reproduced the head distribution obtained the same day in the same borehole instrumented with a multilevel sampling system.     

Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics

Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.     

Long-term (105) or short-term (103) δ13C excursion near the Palaeocene-Eocene transition: evidence from the Tethys

Expanded sedimentary records from the Tethys reveal unique faunal and isotopic changes across the Palaeocene-Eocene (P-E) transition. Unlike in the open oceans, the Tethys exhibits a gradual decrease of 1.5% in δ¹³C values prior to the rapid δ¹³C excursion. Associated with the 6¹³C excursion is a decrease in calcite burial, increase in detrital content and appearance of a unique opportunistic planktic foraminifera1 assemblage (e.g. compressed acarininids). The existence of a prelude decrease in δ¹³C values in the Tethys suggests that the P-E δ¹³C excursion may have occurred in two steps and over a few hundred thousand years, rather than as one step over a few thousand years as previously suggested. This slower excursion rate is readily explained by changing organic carbon weathering or burial rates and avoids the need of invoking ad hoc scenarios.     

Recent progress in imaging polarimetry

Recent instrumental developments in imaging polarimetry allow array detectors to reach a polarimetric sensitivity of 1 × 10^–4 of the intensity. New instrumental effects appear at these levels of sensitivity and generate spurious polarization signals with amplitudes of up to 5 × 10^–4. Here I discuss these effects and present methods to avoid them. Polarized spectra with an rms noise of 6 × 10^–6 may then be obtained. Furthermore a method is brought to the reader's attention that allows polarization measurements at the 1 × 10^–4 level with regular array detectors, e.g. in the near-infrared.     

Interpolation for geochemical surface reconstruction incorporating topographic catchment definitions

Geochemical surfaces are reconstructed by interpolating geochemical measurements obtained from stream-water and stream-sediment samples. The geographical region that influences (and therefore is represented by) the value of a geochemial sample is its topographic catchment area. However, standard convention is to treat and to record the stream sample in the database as a point location, and to reconstruct geochemical surfaces utilizing conventional point interpolation procedures. These interpolation procedures assume, generally, that a data point exerts geographical influence away from itself in all directions, and that influence declines with distance away from that data point. Conventional interpolation procedures are poorly suited for reconstructing geochemical surfaces from stream samples; they do not take into account the true geographic area that geochemical sample points represent (topographic catchments). In this paper we propose a method of interpolation which assumes that data points are representative of their topographic catchment areas. Experimental data indicates that a surface reconstruction procedure which preserves the areal character of geochemical samples provides results more meaningful than surfaces reconstructed using more conventional interpolation techniques.     

Near-K/T age of clastic deposits from Texas to Brazil: impact,volcanism and/or sea-level lowstand?

Near-K/T boundary clastic deposits from Texas, Mexico, Haiti, Guatemala and Brazil, often described as impact-generated tsunami deposits, are stratigraphically below well-defined K/T boundary horizons and appear not to be causally related to the K/T boundary event. Stratigraphic evidence indicates that their deposition began during the last 170–200 kyr of the Maastrichtian, coincident with a major eustatic sea-level lowstand that lowered sea level by as much as 70–100 m. Clastic deposition ended a few tens of thousands of years before the K/T boundary during a rapidly rising sea level. The presence of glass in clastic deposits in Haiti, northeastern Mexico and Yucatan suggests that the sea-level lowstand coincided with a time of major volcanism or pre-K/T boundary bolide impact.