Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis

The Joint-Probability Method (JPM) was adopted by federal agencies for critical post-Katrina determinations of hurricane surge frequencies. In standard JPM implementations, it is necessary to consider a very large number of combinations of storm parameters, and each such combination (or synthetic storm) requires the simulation of wind, waves, and surge. The tools used to model the wave and surge phenomena have improved greatly in recent years, but this improvement and the use of very large high-resolution grids have made the computations both time-consuming and expensive. In order to ease the computational burden, two independent approaches have been developed to reduce the number of storm surge simulations that are required. Both of these so-called JPM-OS (JPM-Optimal Sampling) methods seek to accurately cover the entire storm parameter space through optimum selection of a small number of parameter values so as to minimize the number of required storm simulations. Tests done for the Mississippi coast showed that the accuracy of the two methods is comparable to that of a full JPM analysis, with a reduction of an order of magnitude or more in the computational effort.     

Vertical deformation partitioning across a collapsing large and hot orogen

Featuring 3 000-km-long large and hot orogen, the Mantiqueira Province provides a rare opportunity to study the process of gravitational collapse at mid to deep crustal levels. Distinct but contemporary (~500 Ma) post-collisional intrusions show structures and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) fabrics related to their emplacements, recording different flow patterns. In southern deep-seated intrusions, ellipsoidal-shaped roots with gabbroic-to-hybrid cores surrounded by granitic rocks show concentric patterns of AMS fabrics that cut across the NE-trending regional foliation. In contrast, northern intrusions, exposed as the upper sections of batholith-size bodies of coarse-grained granite emplaced at the shallow to mid-crust, show general NS-trending magnetic fabrics roughly parallel to strike of the orogen and the regional foliation of host rocks. These contrasting magnetic patterns from shallow to deeper crust suggest vertical magma migration from the overthickened orogenic core to be emplaced across its thinner stretched flanks during the gravitational collapse of the orogenic edifice.