A theoretical relationship between probabilistic relative operating characteristic skill and deterministic correlation skill in dynamical seasonal climate prediction

Understanding the relationship between probabilistic and deterministic prediction skills is of important significance for the study of seasonal forecasting and verification. Based on the Brier skill score methodology, we have previously found a theoretical relationship between the probabilistic resolution skill and the deterministic correlation (i.e., anomaly correlation; AC) skill and a lack of necessary or consistent relationship between the probabilistic reliability skill and the deterministic skill in dynamical seasonal prediction. Here, we further theoretically investigate the relationship between the probabilistic relative operating characteristic (ROC) skill and the deterministic skill. The ROC measures the discrimination attribute of probabilistic forecast quality, another important attribute besides the resolution and reliability. With some simplified assumptions, we first derive theoretical expressions for the hit and false-alarm rates that are basic ingredients for the ROC curve, then demonstrate a sole dependence of the ROC curve on the AC, and finally analytically derive a relationship between the related ROC score and the AC. Such a theoretically derived ROC-AC relationship is further examined using dynamical models’ ensemble seasonal hindcasts, which is well verified. The finding here along with our previous findings implies that the discrimination and resolution attributes of probabilistic seasonal forecast skill are intrinsically equivalent to the corresponding deterministic skill, while the reliability appears to be the fundamental attribute of the probabilistic skill that differs from the deterministic skill, which constitutes an understanding of the fundamental similarities and difference between the two types of seasonal forecasting skills and predictability and can offer important implications for the study of seasonal forecasting and verification.

     

塔里木盆地塔中西部加里东中、晚期构造-层序结构与奥陶系碳酸盐岩储集体分布

不同级序层序界面与构造不整合面对碳酸盐岩储层发育与分布起主要控制作用。通过对塔中西部加里东中、晚期不整合面、晚奥陶世台缘结构、奥陶系碳酸盐岩Ⅲ-Ⅳ级以上层序与岩性段划分、32口区探井储层发育特征及11口探井碳酸盐岩及其少量缝洞充填物的碳氧、锶同位素的综合研究,提出了奥陶系碳酸盐岩多类型储集体发育的地质模式。其中,加里东中、晚期第一幕(T47)构造导致了台缘向台内发育顶部削截,发育高位体系和强烈的表生岩溶作用,后期为上超的海侵体系,构成了一个构造-岩性复合转换面。第二幕(T27)总体为海侵上超(角度)淹没不整合,局部高处有小规模剥蚀。中、上奥陶统台缘带向台内由垂向加积向进积作用增强,台缘带大的坡角有利于残厚较大的一间房组与良里塔格组发育与分布。塔中西北部奥陶系碳酸盐岩Ⅲ级以上高频层序和沉积旋回特征较为相似。奥陶系碳酸盐岩缝洞中方解石与其围岩的碳氧、锶同位素有较强的继承性,鹰山组灰岩或云(灰)岩及缝洞方解石中的δ13CPDB和δ18OPDB负偏变化较明显,与不同构造部位中的地层剥蚀强度或岩溶强度成正比。与良里塔格组灰岩与缝洞方解石中低锶特征不同,鹰山组中锶同位素87Sr/86Sr相对较高,受壳源锶影响相对较大,反映了其与良里塔格组沉积环境不同且其岩溶作用更广泛。鹰山组储集体发育主要受控于构造挤压断层相关褶皱控制下的地层(剥蚀)-不整合面分布,构成了继承性构造带、断层上盘等地貌高的"抬升剥蚀-潜流带残留型-强烈的多期岩溶叠加改造型"岩溶模式和构造带间或断裂下盘带等其他部位"抬升剥蚀-淋滤与潜流带分带不明显(局部充填)平缓弱改造型"的岩溶模式。     

气温的天气和气候记忆性特征分析:以济南和青岛为例

气温的天气和气候记忆性特征分析对于提高气候预测水平具有积极意义。利用济南和青岛1961—2020 年逐日、月和年平均气温资料,运用自相关性函数和标准化频率分布分析了上述时间序列的气温记忆性特征和概率分布特征,并利用结构函数法建立了月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间的分数阶导数关系。结果表明:(1)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平呈现不同程度的记忆性特征,其中年平均气温距平相比于月平均气温距平具有更好的记忆性。(2)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间存在分数阶导数关系,济南和青岛相应的月、年尺度阶数分别为0. 529、0. 665 和0. 553、0. 791,两地的月尺度阶数相近,但青岛略大,青岛的年尺度阶数大于济南,即青岛月和年平均气温距平的记忆性大于济南。(3)济南和青岛的月和年平均气温距平相比于日平均气温距平有不同程度的长尾特征,长尾特征反映了极值温度发生的概率。     

地基微波辐射计资料的等值线自动绘制方法

利用美国国家大气研究中心（National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR）中尺度模式（WRF-ARW）以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）三维变分同化系统GSI（Gridpoint StatisticalInterpolation）,对2005年6月20-21日发生在广东省中部的一场致洪暴雨进行了模拟。与雨量计观测的和卫星反演的降水混合资料相比,模式能够成功地模拟出降水的位置和强度。但数值模拟的效果很大程度上取决于3个条件：模式分辨率;物理过程方案;初始条件。在此次暴雨的模拟中,采用Eta Ferrier微物理方案、内层区域4km细分辨率与外层区域12km粗分辨率组成双层嵌套网格和卫星辐射资料同化的初始化方案是非常合适的。     

山东省采暖与降温度日数时空分布规律研究

本文采用山东省日平均气温资料,基于Mann-Kendall检验方法,分析了山东省采暖与降温度日数的空间分布和时间变化趋势.同时,采用度日数序列对度日数等值线最密集的济南进行了关于城市热岛效应特征的初步探讨.结果表明,山东省采暖度日数空间分布具有纬向分布和地形影响特征,多年均值在2279～2945℃·d之间;降温度日数除受地形影响外,还具有海陆分布特征,多年平均值分布在1～155℃·d之间.采暖度日数的长期变化呈现显著下降趋势,在44.6～162.3℃·d·(10 a)-1之间;降温度日数趋势大部分站点不显著,仅18个站点有上升趋势,在4.5～17.3℃·d· (10a)-1之间.济南在1965-2010年,郊区采暖度日数始终高于城市,在大部分年份降温度日数都是城市高于郊区.采暖与降温度日数城郊差值都在20世纪70年代末至80年代初达到高值段,近年最小.     

威海市区沿岸潮间带海藻季节变化的观察研究

经过在威海市区沿岸潮间带连续四年的采集和观察,共采集到了８０种海藻,包括绿藻门１０属１４种,红藻门２９属４４种,褐藻门１７属２２种,它们大多数是温带种类,少数是亚寒带和亚热带种类。本文还记录了这一区域各种定生海藻生长随季节变化的情况。     

Characterization of defensin gene from abalone Haliotis discus hannai and its deduced protein

Defensin is one of preserved ancient host defensive materials formed in biological evolution. As a regulator and effector molecule, it is very important in animals' acquired immune system. This paper reports the defensin gene from the mixed liver and kidney cDNA library of abalone Haliotis discus hannai Ino. Sequence analysis shows that the gene sequence of full-length cDNA encodes 42 mature peptides (including six Cys), molecular weight of 4 323 Da, and pI of 8.02. Amino acid sequence homology analysis shows that the peptides are highly similar (70% in common) to other insects defensin. Because of a typical insect-defensin structural character of mature peptide in the secondary structure, the polypeptide named Haliotis discus defensin (hd-def), a novel of antimicrobial peptides, belongs to insects defensin subfamily. The RT-PCR result of Haliotis discus defensin shows that the gene can be expressed only in the hepatopancreas by Gram-negative and positive bacteria stimulation, which is ascribed to inducible expression. Therefore, it is revealed that the Haliotis discus defensin gene expression was related to the antibacterial infection of Haliotis discus hannai Ino.     

CO2倍增对我国东部极端降水的影响

 利用GFDL-CM2.1耦合模式控制试验和CO₂增长试验逐日降水输出结果,评估了CO₂浓度加倍对我国极端降水变化的影响。结果表明：CO₂浓度加倍导致我国东部地区年极端降水的强度增强、降水量显著增多及降水频次显著增加（除华北南部外）; CO₂浓度加倍对我国春夏季极端降水影响较大,导致东部多数地区春夏季极端降水频次增加,强度增强;而CO₂浓度加倍导致华北南部和长江中下游春夏季雨日减少以及小雨、中雨减少,从而导致年总降水量减少。     

塔里木盆地北部上震旦统葡萄状白云岩的发现及成因探讨*

“皮壳—葡萄状”白云岩是一种非常特殊结构的白云岩。文中报道了塔里木盆地西北缘东二沟及塔北星火101井上震旦统奇格布拉克组中皮壳—葡萄状白云岩特征,并对其成因进行了探讨。皮壳状—葡萄状白云石中发育明、暗纤状白云石或纹层条带的含少量细晶的纤状—细粒状白云石以及肾状和葡萄状粉细晶白云石;由球形、杆形、孢子形等蓝细菌构成泡沫状结构;明暗、环带状橙红色光或中等橙红色光、核部发光较暗或不发光;与基质白云石相比,葡萄—皮壳状白云石δ13CPDB相似;但δ18OPDB正偏, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr 相对高(0.70887~0.70939)、但与震旦纪海水(0.7087~0.7094)相似,从皮壳边缘、暗色(蓝细菌)至核部,微区δ18OPDB、δ13CPDB显示了环带内变化较小、环带外的强烈负漂移;云化程度的增加,δ18OPDB、δ13CPDB负偏明显, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr 增加。皮壳—葡萄状白云岩中Al₂O₃ 、Fe₂O₃ 、MnO、LREE/HREE值均低于基质泥粉晶云岩对应值、稀土总量介于基质与粉细晶云岩之间,而Na₂O+K₂O、P₂O₅、 Sr、Hg、Cu、Sr/Ba、Sr/Mn、δCe值均高于基质泥粉晶云岩对应值;且随着云化程度的提高,总体呈现出Mn含量增加,Al₂O₃ 、Fe₂O₃ 、Na₂O+K₂O、P₂O₅、Sr/Ba、Fe/Mn等值递减的趋势;由此判断皮壳状—葡萄状白云石可能是弱还原、保存较好的海水中形成,或在成岩早期或浅埋藏孔隙海水为主的流体中形成、部分经历了较强的大气水作用改造。