Occurrence of winter air temperature extremes in Central Spitsbergen

The occurrence of daily air temperature extremes in winter in Central Spitsbergen in the period 1975–2008 was analysed. The mean winter temperature was found to be increasing by approximately 1.65°C per decade. Negative extremes were becoming less frequent, decreasing at a rate of approximately 5 days per decade, whereas the frequency of positive extremes showed a small (2 days per decade) but insignificant positive trend. Furthermore, circulation patterns responsible for positive and negative temperature extremes were analysed. Composite maps of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500-hPa geopotential heights (z500 hPa) means and anomalies were constructed for the days with positive and negative extremes. Circulation patterns causing extremely warm winter days are characterised by a cyclonic centre or a low pressure trough over the Fram Strait. Cyclones located west of Spitsbergen with a warm sector over the archipelago bring warm air masses from the southern quadrant. On extremely cold days, the cyclone centres are usually located over the Barents Sea. This SLP pattern implies airflow from the north and northeast that brings cold Arctic air to the North Atlantic. Another factor in the occurrence of the temperature extremes in Central Spitsbergen is the sea-ice cover. Negative temperature extremes usually occur together with a high concentration of sea ice, particularly in the middle and end of winter.     

Episodes of extreme rainwater pollution and its relationship with synoptic situation (Wielkopolski National Park,Poland)

Synoptic conditions of extreme rainwater pollution episodes, evidenced by maximum values of parameters measured in the protected area of Wielkopolski National Park (western-central Poland), were analysed in this study. Precipitation samples were tested for the following parameters: pH, electrical conductivity and the concentration of the following elements: F^-, Cl^-, NO₂^-, NO₃^-, PO₄^3-, SO₄^2- and Na⁺, NH₄⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺. It was assumed, that in winter, western advection of Atlantic air masses was the most frequent aerosol and pollution transport scenario for the investigated area. In summer the most heavily pollution occur at the intensified meridional flow over the central Europe, indicating advection of cooler air from northern Europe and the North Sea. In most of cases, the weather conditions causing extreme concentration of examined pollutants, were determined by the movement of weather fronts over considerable parts of Poland and by precipitation caused by those fronts.     

Chaotic three-dimensional distribution of Ba,Rb, and Sr in feldspar megacrysts grown in an open magmatic system

As has been demonstrated in recent years, the heterogeneities of coeval magmas can be more successfully revealed by zoned megacrysts rather than by analysis of the whole rocks hosting them. Here, the geochemical heterogeneities of feldspar megacrysts from the Karkonosze granite, Poland, are investigated by LA-ICP-MS. The crystals are the product of migration and growth in regions of poorly mixed magmas. 3D-modeling of the Ba, Sr, and Rb distributions emphasizes the importance of micro-domain growth morphologies. Two models of element behavior—a relative concentration model and a composition gradient model—provide a potentially effective tool for tracking the mixing process on a microscale. Measured concentrations of elements of different mobilities do not agree with what might be expected from the mixing of two end-member magmas. If mixing was the only process occurring, linear correlations between the concentrations of any two elements should be observed; this, however, is not the case. For combinations of any two of the three elements, modeling reveals differing non-linear correlations between concentrations. The megacryst heterogeneities provide an insight into how mixing magmas are chaotically advected to growing crystals and the degree of inter-magma element exchange between the magmas.     

Airborne Microorganisms Emitted from Wastewater Treatment Plant Treating Domestic Wastewater and Meat Processing Industry Wastes

Experiments were conducted to study the airborne microbial contamination generated by a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Aerosol samples were collected simultaneously, by sedimentation and impact methods, from the area and the surroundings of the WWTP. Total colony forming units (CFUs) of heterotrophic bacteria (HPC), as well as members of the Enterobacteriaceae, staphylococci, enterococci, actinomycetes, and microscopic fungi were determined. Bacterial (HPC) concentrations ranged between 10¹ and 10⁴ CFU/m³, fungi 0 and 10⁴ CFU/m³. Higher numbers of HPC bacteria in air samples were observed in summer, fungi in autumn. The main emission of microorganisms to atmospheric air was from the mechanical sewage treatment devices of the WWTP. The facilities of the biological sewage treatment of the plant did not generate large amounts of bioaerosols. In the air obtained from the premises of the WWTP, 25 species of the Enterobacteriaceae were isolated (Salmonella spp., Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli). At the fence and in the surroundings only Pantoea spp. were identified. This suggests that the sewage bacteria were mainly discharged in the area of the WWTP. The presence of enteric bacteria, especially Enterobacteriaceae reflects the level of air pollution with bioaerosols from sewage and is an important factor during monitoring the quality of the air around WWTPs.     

Revisiting the Borrobol Tephra

The Borrobol Tephra has been identified as one of the key tephra horizons for the Lateglacial time period but it also exemplifies many of the promises and problems of tephrochronology. Additional horizons with similar major element composition and approximately the same age have been identified around the North Atlantic region. Here, we revisit the Borrobol Tephra identified at two Swedish sites, Hässeldala port and Skallahult, and also the Borrobol type‐site in Scotland. We present the first set of minor element data (trace and rare earth analyses) along with new analyses of major elements from these three sites. The analysed minor and the trace elements have a similar signature; however, the glass from the Scottish type‐site seems to imply two populations. To answer if this truly represents two populations, or if it reflects magmatic differentiation additional and larger data sets of minor elements are needed. The new major elements are compared to other Borrobol‐type tephras identified in the North Atlantic region. Our results are in line with earlier investigations, which showed no differences in major elements. Further, comparison of minor elements from glass analyses from our sites with those for eruptions associated with Icelandic central volcanoes implies an Icelandic origin for the Borrobol‐type tephras.     

Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application,Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela

In order to analyze observed seismicity in central Japan and Venezuela, we applied a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any sequence in the time series. We also explored a scheme for diminishing the effects of a sharp cutoff magnitude threshold in selecting the events to analyze. A main four-event sequence with probability P _c  = 0.991 of not having occurred by chance was identified for earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0 in central Japan. Venezuela is divided, from West to East, into four regions; for each of these, the magnitude ranges and identified sequences are as follows. Region 1: M ≥ 6.0, a six-event sequence with P _c  = 0.923, and a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.706. Region 2: M ≥ 5.6, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.942. Region 3: M ≥ 5.6, a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.882. Region 4: M ≥ 6.0, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.891. Forecasts are made and evaluated for all identified sequences having four or more events and probabilities ≥0.5. The last event of all these sequences was satisfactorily aftcast by previous events. Whether the identified sequences do, in fact, correspond to physical processes resulting in semi-periodic seismicity is, of course, an open question; but the forecasts, properly used, may be useful as a factor in seismic hazard estimation.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting: I. Theory and Method,Parkfield Application

We present a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple semi-periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any identifiable sequence in the time series. The method, based on the analytic Fourier transform, yields estimates of the departure from periodicity of an observed sequence, and of the probability that the sequence is not due to chance. These estimates are used to make and to evaluate forecasts of future events belonging to each sequence. Numerous tests with synthetic catalogs show that the method is surprisingly capable of correctly identifying sequences, unidentifiable by eye, in complicated time series. Correct identification of a given sequence depends on the number of events it contains, on the sequence’s departure from periodicity, and, in some cases, on the choice of starting and ending times of the analyzed time window; as well as on the total number of events in the time series. Some particular data combinations may result in spectra where significant periods are obscured by large amplitudes artifacts of the transform, but artifacts can be usually recognized because they lack harmonics; thus, in most of these cases, true semi-periodic sequences may not be identified, but no false identifications will be made. A first example of an application of the method to real seismicity data is the analysis of the Parkfield event series. The analysis correctly aftcasts the September 2004 earthquake. Further applications to real data from Japan and Venezuela are shown in a companion paper.