Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment

We provide an overall assessment of the surface air temperature and precipitation present day (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) ensemble climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. This consists of simulations performed with different configurations (physics schemes) of the ICTP regional model RegCM4 over five CORDEX domains (Africa, Mediterranean, Central America, South America, South Asia), driven by different combinations of three global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The biases (1976–2005) in the driving and nested model ensembles compared to observations show a high degree of spatial variability and, when comparing GCMs and RegCM4, similar magnitudes and more similarity for precipitation than for temperature. The large scale patterns of change (2070–2099 minus 1976–2005) are broadly consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles and with previous analyses of GCM projections, indicating that the GCMs selected in the CREMA experiment are representative of the more general behavior of current GCMs. The RegCM4, however, shows a lower climate sensitivity (reduced warming) than the driving GCMs, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. While the broad patterns of precipitation change are consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles, greater differences are found at sub-regional scales over the various domains, evidently tied to the representation of local processes. This paper serves to provide a reference view of the behavior of the CREMA ensemble, while more detailed and process-based analysis of individual domains is left to companion papers of this special issue.     

运用生物地理学理论与遥感影像寻找本·拉登

本·拉登到底在哪里？这是我们这个时代最重要的政治问题之一。在这篇文章中,我们依据反映生物分布和灭绝规律的生物地理学理论(距离衰减理论、岛屿生物地理理论、本·拉登个人数据),结合遥感数据(陆地卫星 ETM+、航天雷达地形测图、QuickBird),从全球、区域、局部三个空间尺度分析并最终指出本·拉登当前最可能的所在地。这是第一次运用科学手段来确定本·拉登居所。该方法具有可重复性：一旦美国情报部门提供新的信息,便可通过该方法重新定位本·拉登当前最有可能的藏身场所。     

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped.     

Transgressive dunefield landforms and vegetation associations,Doña Juana,Veracruz, Mexico

Transgressive dune fields often comprise a multiplicity of landforms where vegetation processes largely affect landform dynamics, which in turn, also affect vegetation processes. These associations have seldom been studied in detail. This paper examines four separate landform types in a complex coastal transgressive dunefield located in the central Gulf of Mexico, in order to assess the relationships between dunefield habitat, local environmental factors, vegetation associations and landform evolution. Topographic surveys using tape and clinometer were conducted in conjunction with vegetation survey transects at four locations across the Doña Juana dunefield. Vegetation surveys allowed the estimation of relative plant cover of each plant species found along the transects. A large variety of landforms were found at the Doña Juana Dunefield: deflation plains, gegenwalle (counter) ridges, transverse dune trailing ridges, blowouts and parabolic dunes, aklé (fish‐scale shaped) dunefields and precipitation ridges, with plant species associations developing on these different landforms equally variable. Flood tolerant species were located in the lower parts (deflation plain and gegenwalle ridges) whereas the older and dryer parts were covered by coastal matorral shrubs. Burial‐tolerant species were dominant in the most mobile areas (blowouts and aklé dunefield and margin). The dune trailing ridge, with relatively milder conditions, showed the highest richness, with no dominant species. A dual interaction was found such that colonizing species both create and affect topography, and in turn, topography determines vegetation association and succession patterns. In coastal dunes, the vegetation and abiotic environment (namely the different landforms and the inherent micronevironmental variability) interact tightly and generate a complex and highly dynamic biogeomorphic system where substrate mobility and colonization processes reinforce one another in positive feedback. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future projections of temperature-related climate change impacts on the railway network of Great Britain

Great Britain’s main line railway network is known to experience various temperature-related impacts, e.g. track buckling and overhead power line sag at high ambient temperatures. Climate change could alter the frequency of occurrence of these impacts. We have therefore investigated the climate change impact on various temperature-related issues, identified during workshops with rail industry specialists, using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of the Met Office’s regional climate model (RCM), HadRM3. We have developed novel approaches to combine RCM data with railway industry knowledge, typically by identifying key meteorological thresholds of interest and analysing exceedance of these out to the 2040s. We performed a statistical analysis of the projected changes for each issue, via bootstrapping of the unperturbed PPE member. Although neither the PPE nor the bootstrapping analysis samples the full range of uncertainty in the projections, they nonetheless provide complementary perspectives on the suitability of the projections for use in decision-making. Our main findings include projected increases in the summertime occurrence of temperature conditions associated with (i) track buckling, (ii) overhead power line sag, (iii) exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress, and (iv) heat-related delays to track maintenance; and (v) projected decreases in the wintertime occurrence of temperatures conditions associated with freight train failure owing to brake problems. For (i), the statistical significance varied with track condition and location; for (ii) and (iii), with location; and for (iv) and (v), projected changes were significant across Great Britain. As well as assessing the changes in climate-related hazard, information about the vulnerability of the network to past temperature-related incidents has been summarised. Combining the hazard and vulnerability elements will eventually support a climate risk assessment for the industry.     

Methane, ethane, and mixed clouds in Titan's atmosphere: Properties derived from microphysical modeling

Theoretical arguments point to and recent observations confirm the existence of clouds in Titan's atmosphere, yet we possess very little data on their particle size, composition and formation mechanism. A time-dependent microphysical model is used to study the evolution of ice clouds in Titan's atmosphere. The model simulates nucleation, condensational growth, evaporation, coagulation, and transport of particles in a column of atmosphere. A variety of cloud compositions are studied, including pure ethane clouds, pure methane clouds, and mixed methane-ethane clouds (all with tholin cores). The abundance of methane cloud particles may be limited by the number of ethane coated tholin nuclei rather than the number of tholins with hydrocarbon coatings. However, even the condensation of methane onto these relatively sparse ethane/tholin cloud particles is sufficient to keep the methane close to saturation. Typical methane supersaturations are of order 0.06 on the average. For simulations which take into account recent lab measurements indicating it is relatively easy for methane to nucleate onto tholin particles without an ethane-layer present, the three types of clouds (methane, ethane, and mixed) exist simultaneously. Pure methane clouds are the most abundant cloud type and serve to lower the supersaturation to about 0.04. Cloud production does not require a continuous surface source of methane. However, clouds produced by mean motions are not the visible methane clouds seen in recent Cassini and ground-based observations. Ethane clouds in the troposphere almost instantaneously nucleate methane to form mixed clouds. However, a thin ethane ‘haze’ remains just above the tropopause for some scenarios and the mixed clouds at the tropopause remain ?50% ethane by mass. Also, evaporation of methane from the mixed cloud particles near the surface leaves a thicker layer of ethane cloud particles at ∼10 km. Nevertheless, the precipitation rate of methane to Titan's surface is between 0.001 and 0.5 cm/terrestrial-year, depending on various initial conditions such as critical saturation, size and abundance of cloud condensation nuclei, surface sources and eddy diffusion.     

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Ecosystem Condition

Tools for assessing and communicating salt marsh condition are essential to guide decisions aimed at maintaining or restoring ecosystem integrity and services. Multimetric indices (MMIs) are increasingly used to provide integrated assessments of ecosystem condition. We employed a theory-based approach that considers the multivariate relationship of metrics with human disturbance to construct a salt marsh MMI for five National Parks in the northeastern USA. We quantified the degree of human disturbance for each marsh using the first principal component score from a principal components analysis of physical, chemical, and land use stressors. We then applied a metric selection algorithm to different combinations of about 45 vegetation and nekton metrics (e.g., species abundance, species richness, and ecological and functional classifications) derived from multi-year monitoring data. While MMIs derived from nekton or vegetation metrics alone were strongly correlated with human disturbance (r values from ?0.80 to ?0.93), an MMI derived from both vegetation and nekton metrics yielded an exceptionally strong correlation with disturbance (r = ?0.96). Individual MMIs included from one to five metrics. The metric-assembly algorithm yielded parsimonious MMIs that exhibit the greatest possible correlations with disturbance in a way that is objective, efficient, and reproducible.     

Exploring aberrant bivalve shell ultrastructure and geochemistry as proxies for past sea water acidification

Throughout much of Earth's history, marine carbonates have represented one of the most important geological archives of environmental change. Several pivotal events during the Phanerozoic, such as mass extinctions or hyperthermal events have recently been associated with ocean acidification. Nevertheless, well‐defined geological proxies for past ocean acidification events are, at best, scarce. Here, experimental work explores the response of bivalve shell ultrastructure and isotope geochemistry (δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O and δ²⁶Mg) to stressful environments, in particular to sea water acidification. In this study, the common blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, was cultured (from early juvenile stages to one year of age) at four pH regimes (pH_NBS 7·2 to pH 8·0). Shell growth rate and ultrastructure of mainly the calcitic portion of the shells were compared between experimental treatments. Specimens exposed to low‐pH environments show patches of disordered calcitic fibre orientation in otherwise well‐structured shells. Furthermore, the electron backscattered diffraction analyses reveal that, under acidified conditions, the c‐axis of the calcite prisms exhibits a bimodal or multi‐modal distribution pattern. Similar shell disorder patterns have been reported from mytilids kept under naturally acidified sea water conditions. In contrast, this study found no evidence that different pH regimes affect shell carbon, oxygen or magnesium isotope ratios. Based on these observations, it is proposed that: (i) stressful environments, in this case low sea water pH, predictably affect bivalve biomineralization patterns; and (ii) these findings bear potential as a novel (petrographic) proxy for ancient sea water acidification. An assessment of the applicability of these data to well‐preserved fossil shell material from selected time intervals requires additional work.