Public policy and the changing landscape

The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed.     

On the Structure of Symplectic Mappings. The Fast Lyapunov Indicator: a Very Sensitive Tool

It is already known (Froeschlé, Lega and Gonczi, 1997) that the Fast Lyapunov Indicator (FLI), that is the computation on a relatively short time of the largest Lyapunov indicator, allows to discriminate between ordered and weak chaotic motion. We have found that, under certain conditions, the FLI also discriminates between resonant and non-resonant orbits, not only for two-dimensional symplectic mappings but also for higher dimensional ones. Using this indicator, we present an example of the Arnold web detection for four and six-dimensional symplectic maps. We show that this method allows to detect the global transition of the system from an exponentially stable Nekhoroshevs like regime to the diffusive Chirikovs one.     

The composition of liquids coexisting with dense hydrous magnesium silicates at 11-13.5 GPa and the endpoints of the solidi in the MgO-SiO2-H2O system

High-pressure liquids in the MgO-SiO₂-H₂O (MSH) system have been investigated at 11 and 13.5 GPa and between 1000 and 1350 °C. A bulk composition more magnesian than the tie-line forsterite-H₂O was employed for the study. Rocking multi-anvil experiments were combined with a diamond trap set-up. After termination of the experiments, the liquid trapped in the diamond layer was analysed by laser ablation ICP-MS using the ‘freezing’ technique. At 11 GPa, liquids coexist with one or two of phase A, clinohumite, chondrodite, and forsterite. A marked discontinuity in the evolution of liquid compositions near 1100 °C is observed at 11 GPa. A step of ∼13 wt% H₂O and 13 wt% MgO is interpreted to result from overstepping the fluid-saturated solidus reaction mass balanced to 1.00(18) phase A + 1.07(4) fluid = 0.63(15) chondrodite + 1.44(2) melt. At 13.5 GPa liquids coexist with one or two of hydrous wadsleyite, clinohumite, superhydrous B, phase B, and forsterite. The discontinuity in liquid composition is no longer present, indicating that the second critical endpoint of the solidus has been overstepped. Thus, hydrous melts in the Mg-rich part of the MSH system (molar bulk Mg/Si > 2) are chemically distinct from aqueous fluids at pressure up to 11 GPa. Convergence of fluid and melt compositions along the solidus resulting in a supercritical liquid occurs between 11 and 13.5 GPa, at which pressure the entire MSH system becomes supercritical.     

3D structure of the Earth's crust beneath the northern part of the Bohemian Massif

The SUDETES 2003 wide-angle refraction/reflection experiment covered the area of the south-western Poland and the northern Bohemian Massif. The good quality data that were gathered combined with the data from previous experiments (POLONAISE'97, CELEBRATION 2000) allowed us to prepare a 3D seismic model of the crust and uppermost mantle for this area. We inverted travel times of both refracted and reflected P waves using the JIVE3D package. This allowed us to obtain a model of P-wave velocity distribution as well as the shape of major boundaries in the crust. We also present a detailed uncertainty analysis for both the boundary depths and the velocity field. In doing the uncertainty analysis we found an interesting, strong dependence between uncertainty and inversion scheme (order of used phases). We also compared the model with surface geology and found good correlation between velocity inhomogeneities in the uppermost crust (down to 2 km) and major geological units. The higher velocity lower crust (6.9–7.2 km/s) could result from remelting of the lower crust or magmatic underplating.     

Comparison of convergence towards invariant distributions for rotation angles, twist angles and local Lyapunov characteristic numbers

Using the standard map as a model problem and in the spirit of cluster analysis we have studied the invariance of the distributions of different indicators introduced to detect and measure weak chaos. We show that the problem is less straightforward than expected and that, except for very strong chaotic dynamical systems, all the complexities (islands, sticking phenomena, cantori) of mixed Hamiltonian systems are reflected into the indicators of convergence towards invariant distributions.     

Solar constant and sunspots

Summary The relationship, already found by the authors, between sunspot numbers and the solar constant, as deduced from the highest global irradiance values at noon, is here reexamined and confirmed. Some attempts at explanation and further inferences are presented.     

Contrasting patterns of precipitation seasonality during the Holocene in the south‐ and north‐central Mediterranean

Pollen‐based quantitative estimates of seasonal precipitation from Lake Pergusa and lake‐level data from Lake Preola in Sicily (southern Italy) allow three successive periods to be distinguished within the Holocene: an early Holocene period before ca. 9800 cal a BP with rather dry climate conditions in winter and summer, a mid‐Holocene period between ca. 9800 and 4500 cal a BP with maximum winter and summer wetness, and a late Holocene period after 4500 cal a BP with declining winter and summer wetness. This evolution observed in the south‐central Mediterranean shows strong similarities to that recognized in the eastern Mediterranean. But, it contrasts with that reconstructed in north‐central Italy, where the mid‐Holocene appears to be characterized by a winter (summer) precipitation maximum (minimum), while the late Holocene coincided with a decrease (increase) in winter (summer) precipitation. Maximum precipitation at ca. 10 000–4500 cal a BP may have resulted from (i) increased local convection in response to a Holocene insolation maximum at 10 000 cal a BP and then (ii) the gradual weakening of the Hadley cell activity, which allowed the winter rainy westerlies to reach the Mediterranean area more frequently. After 4500 cal a BP, changes in precipitation seasonality may reflect non‐linear responses to orbitally driven insolation decrease in addition to seasonal and inter‐hemispheric changes of insolation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does salinity change determine zooplankton variability in the saline Qarun Lake(Egypt)?

Zooplankton and 14 abiotic variables were studied during August 2011 at 10 stations in Lake Qarun,Egypt.Stations with the lowest salinity and highest nutrient concentrations and turbidity were close to the discharge of waters from the El-Bats and El-Wadi drainage systems.A total of 15 holozooplankton species were identified.The salinity in Lake Qarun increased and fluctuated since 1901:12 g/L in 1901;8.5 g/L in 1905;12.0 g/L in 1922;30.0 g/L in 1985;38.7 g/L in 1994;35.3 g/L in 2006,and 33.4 g/L in 2011.The mean concentration of nutrients(nitrate,nitrite and orthophosphate) gradually increased from 35,0.16 and 0.38 ? g/L,respectively,in 1953–1955 to 113,16.4,and 30.26 ? g/L in 2011.From 1999–2003 some decrease of species diversity occurred.Average total zooplankton density was 30 000 ind./m 3 in 1974–1977;356 125 ind./m 3 in 1989;534 000 ind./m 3 in 1994–1995;from 965 000 to 1 452 000 ind./m 3 in 2006,and 595 000 ind./m 3 in 2011.A range of long-term summer salinity variability during the last decades was very similar to a range of salinity spatial variability in summer 2011.There is no significant correlation between zooplankton abundance and salinity in spatial and long-term changes.We conclude that salinity fluctuations since at least 1955 did not directly drive the changes of composition and abundance of zooplankton in the lake.A marine community had formed in the lake,and it continues to change.One of the main drivers of this change is a regular introduction and a pressure of alien species on the existent community.Eutrophication also plays an important role.The introduction of Mnemiopsis leidyi,first reported in 2014,may lead to a start of a new stage of the biotic changes in Lake Qarun,when eutrophication and the population dynamics of this ctenophore will be main drivers of the ecosystem change.     

Do copepods inhabit hypersaline waters worldwide?A short review and discussion

A small number of copepod species have adapted to an existence in the extreme habitat of hypersaline water.13 copepod species have been recorded in the hypersaline waters of Crimea(the largest peninsula in the Black Sea with over 50 hypersaline lakes).Summarizing our own and literature data,the author concludes that the Crimean extreme environment is not an exception:copepod species dwell in hypersaline waters worldwide.There are at least 26 copepod species around the world living at salinity above 100;among them 12 species are found at salinity higher than 200.In the Crimea Cletocamptus retrogressus is found at salinity 360×10-3(with a density of 1 320 individuals/m 3) and Arctodiaptomus salinus at salinity 300×10-3(with a density of 343 individuals/m 3).Those species are probably the most halotolerant copepod species in the world.High halotolerance of osmoconforming copepods may be explained by exoosmolyte consumption,mainly with food.High tolerance to many factors in adults,availability of resting stages,and an opportunity of long-distance transportation of resting stages by birds and/or winds are responsible for the wide geographic distribution of these halophilic copepods.