Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology: analysis of Christchurch Public Hospital video data from the 22 February Christchurch earthquake event

Earthquake epidemiological research indicates that the behavioural response influences the nature and severity of injuries sustained. However, there is no observational evidence of the actions individuals engage in during and immediately following earthquake shaking, and the context in which earthquake injuries and deaths are caused. Closed Circuit Television Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology has been developed as a tool to classify human behaviour during and immediately following earthquake shaking using real event video data. The coding methodology was applied to security video data captured during the 22 February 2011 M_w6.3 ‘Christchurch’ earthquake event from the Christchurch Public Hospital which experienced shaking intensity of MM9 lasting approximately 12–15 s. We applied this coding methodology to determine: demography, trans-event behavioural responses, post-event behavioural responses, influence of social context on behaviour, and influence of behaviour on injuries. A total of 213 individuals from 31 different camera views were analysed. Sixty-six per cent of the individuals were adult-aged females. The primary trans-event responses were to hold (26%) onto furniture, walls, and/or other people close to them and to look around (30%). No individuals were observed to perform all ‘Drop, Cover, Hold’ actions, the recommended action during strong earthquake shaking in New Zealand. Post-event behaviour included: running, walking, providing assistance, moving towards others, visual communication, and some individuals gave instructions. Social contextual behaviour varied depending on the role of the adult. There were no serious injuries linked to behaviour. The results of this initial study indicate the coding methodology can record the distribution of and variation in human behaviours. Therefore, objective observation of earthquake video data can provide a useful quantitative measure of human behaviour. Significantly, the process will enable researchers to look more closely at behaviours, as well as the social and physical contexts associated with injury risk during and immediately following earthquake shaking.     

Estimation of groundwater recharge in a major sand and gravel aquifer in Ireland using multiple approaches

Groundwater recharge was investigated in the most extensive sand and gravel aquifer (area of approximately 200 km²) in the Republic of Ireland as part of a wider study seeking to derive recharge estimates using aquifer vulnerability mapping. The proportion of effective rainfall (total rainfall minus actual evapotranspiration) that leads to recharge is known as the recharge coefficient. The recharge investigation involved a variety of approaches, including soil moisture budgeting, well hydrograph analysis, numerical modelling and a catchment water balance. The adoption of multiple techniques provided insights on recharge and also on aquifer properties. Comparison of two soil moisture budgeting approaches (FAO Penman-Monteith with Penman-Grindley) showed how variations in the effective rainfall values from these methods influence groundwater levels simulated in a numerical groundwater model. The catchment water balance estimated the recharge coefficient to be between 81 and 85%, which is considered a reasonable range for this aquifer, where overland flow is rarely observed. The well hydrograph analysis, using a previous estimate of specific yield (0.13), gave recharge coefficients in the range of 40–80%, considered low for this aquifer: a revised specific yield of 0.19 resulted in a more reasonable range of recharge coefficients of between 70 and 100%.     

Residual drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions

This paper presents the main results of the evaluation of residual inter‐story drift demands in typical moment‐resisting steel buildings designed accordingly to the Mexican design practice when subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions. Analytical 2D‐framed models representative of the study‐case buildings were subjected to a set of 30 narrow‐band earthquake ground motions recorded on stations placed in soft‐soil sites of Mexico City, where most significant structural damage was found in buildings as a consequence of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, and scaled to reach several levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analyses. Thus, results were statistically processed to obtain hazard curves of peak (maximum) and residual drift demands for each frame model. It is shown that the study‐case frames might exhibit maximum residual inter‐story drift demands in excess of 0.5%, which is perceptible for building's occupants and could cause human discomfort, for a mean annual rate of exceedance associated to peak inter‐story drift demands of about 3%, which is the limiting drift to avoid collapse prescribed in the 2004 Mexico City Seismic Design Provisions. The influence of a member's post‐yield stiffness ratio and material overstrength in the evaluation of maximum residual inter‐story drift demands is also discussed. Finally, this study introduces response transformation factors, T_p, that allow establishing residual drift limits compatible with the same mean annual rate of exceedance of peak inter‐story drift limits for future seismic design/evaluation criteria that take into account both drift demands for assessing a building's seismic performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.     

Sulfur biogeochemical cycling and novel Fe-S mineralization pathways in a tidally re-flooded wetland

Sulfur biogeochemical cycling and associated Fe-S mineralization processes exert a major influence over acidity dynamics, electron flow and contaminant mobility in wetlands, benthic sediments and groundwater systems. While S biogeochemical cycling has been studied intensively in many environmental settings, relatively little direct information exists on S cycling in formerly drained wetlands that have been remediated via tidal re-flooding. This study focuses on a tidal wetland that was drained in the 1970s (causing severe soil and water acidification), and subsequently remediated by controlled re-flooding in 2002. We examine reduction rates and Fe-S mineralization at the tidal fringe, 7 years after the commencement of re-flooding. The initial drainage of the wetland examined here caused in-situ pyrite (FeS₂) oxidation, resulting in the drained soil layers being highly acidic and rich in -bearing Fe(III) minerals, including jarosite (KFe₃(SO₄)₂(OH)₆). Tidal re-flooding has neutralized much of the previous acidity, with the pore-water pH now mostly spanning pH 5-7. The fastest rates of in-situ reduction (up to ∼300 nmol cm⁻³ day⁻¹) occur within the inter-tidal zone in the near-surface soil layers (to ∼60 cm below ground surface). The reduction rates correlate with pore-water dissolved organic C concentrations, thereby suggesting that electron donor supply was the predominant rate determining factor. Elemental S was a major short-term product of reduction, comprising up to 69% of reduced inorganic S in the near-surface soil layers. This enrichment in elemental S can be partly attributed to interactions between biogenic H₂S and jarosite - a process that also contributed to enrichment in pore-water Fe²⁺ (up to 55 mM) and (up to 50 mM). The iron sulfide thiospinel, greigite (Fe₃S₄), was abundant in near-surface soil layers within the inter- to sub-tidal zone where tidal water level fluctuations created oscillatory redox conditions. There was evidence for relatively rapid pyrite re-formation within the re-flooded soil layers. However, the results indicate that pyrite re-formation has occurred mainly in the lower formerly drained soil layers, whereas the accumulation of elemental S and greigite has been confined towards the soil surface. The discovery that pyrite formation was spatially decoupled from that of elemental S and greigite challenges the concept that greigite is an essential precursor required for sedimentary pyrite formation. In fact, the results suggest that greigite and pyrite may represent distinct end-points of divergent Fe-S mineralization pathways. Overall, this study highlights novel aspects of Fe-S mineralization within tidal wetlands that have been drained and re-flooded, in contrast to normal, undisturbed tidal wetlands. As such, the long-term biogeochemical trajectory of drained and acidified wetlands that are remediated by tidal re-flooding cannot be predicted from the well-studied behaviour of normal tidal wetlands.     

Contamination of marine biogenic habitats and effects upon associated epifauna

Habitat-forming organisms are frequently used as biomonitors in marine environments due to a widespread ability to accumulate toxic contaminants. Few studies, however, have considered the consequences of these accumulated contaminants on the abundant and diverse fauna associated with these habitats. In this review, we summarize research which has investigated the contamination of biogenic habitats (including seagrasses, macroalgae, ascidians, sponges and bivalve reefs) and the impact of this contamination on the habitat use, feeding behaviour and survival of associated epifauna. In many cases, ecological impacts upon epifauna are not simply predicted by levels of contamination in their habitat, but are determined by the foraging, feeding and reproductive behaviours of the inhabiting organisms. Thus, a thorough understanding of these ecological processes is essential in order to understand the effects of contaminants upon epifaunal communities. The scope of biomonitoring studies which assess the contamination of biogenic habitats should be expanded to include an assessment of potential effects upon associated epifauna. When combined with manipulative field experiments such an approach would greatly assist in our understanding of indirect effects of contaminants in these important benthic habitats.     

An observational program for a unified optical-radio reference frame

An observational pilot program is described which provides a first step towards the construction of an inertial extragalactic reference frame from optical and radio measurements. Candidate objects will be selected from extragalactic compact radio sources which display optical counterparts. Galactic radio stars will be secondary reference objects. The reference frame will be defined by the radio positions of the extragalactic objects. Based on a coordinated effort in both hemispheres, a global homogeneous net of about 400 quasars and 100 radio stars is expected to result from a five year campaign.