Recent progress of glaciological studies in China

1IntroductionIn the early 1960s, glaciers in western China were classified into maritime- and continental-types by different glacial environment and physical characteristics (Shi and Xie, 1964). With extensive glaciological investigations in the western regions (Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology of CAS, 1988), Lai and Huang (1990) suggested a new classification of temperate, subpolar and quasipolar glaciers, corresponding to the maritime-, subcontinental- and extremely contin…     

Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。     

Recent progress of glaciological studies in China

Glacier inventory compilation during the past 20 years and modifications of that for the Eastern Pamir and Banggong Lake indicate that there are 46,342 modern glaciers with a total area and volume of 59415 km2 and 5601 km3 respectively in China. These glaciers can be classified into maritime and continental (including sub-continental and extremely continental) types. Researches show that glaciers in China have been retreating since the Little Ice Age and the mass wastage was accelerated during the past 30 to 40 years. Being an important part of glaciological studies in China, ice core climatic and environmental studies on Tibetan Plateau and in the Antarctica have provided abundant, high resolution information about past climatic and environmental evolution over the Tibetan Plateau and Antarctica. Except for different parameters recorded in ice cores relating to climate and environment changes on Tibetan Plateau, records from ice cores extracted from different glaciers show that the discrepancies in climatic and environmental changes on the north and south parts of the plateau may be the consequence of different influencing effects from terrestrial and solar sources. Glaciological and meteorological phenomena imply that Lambert Glacier valley is an important boundary of climate in the east Antarctica, which is thought to be connected with cyclonic activities and Circum-polar Waves over the Antarctica.     

Geographical distribution of ecological footprint and sustainability analysis for Liaoning Province

This paper presents the detailed results and analyses on the ecological footprints and bio-capacities of the individual cities and the province as a whole for the year 2001, providing a clear picture of sustainability for the province. Results show that the ecological footprints of most cities in Liaoning exceeded their respective bio-capacities, incurring high ecological deficits. The ecological deficit of the province as a whole was 1.31 ha/cap. Those cities with resources extraction and/or primary material-making as their major industries constitute the "ecologically black band", whose ecological deficits ranged from 2.45 to 5.23 ha/cap, the highest of all cities in the province. Fossil energy consumption was the major source of footprint amounting to 1.63 ha/cap at the provincial level, taking up 67.3% of the total. For cropland, modest ecological surpluses occurred in Jinzhou, Tieling, Huludao, and Panjin while modest ecological deficits in Dalian, Benxi, Fushun, and Dandong, resulting in an overall surplus for the province. Liaoning had a certain level of surplus in fishing ground (water area), mainly distributed in the coastal cities of Dalian, Panjin, Huludao, Yingkou, Jinzhou, and Dandong. Most cities had a small ecological deficit in pasture and all had a small ecological surplus in forest. The eco-efficiency, expressed as GDP value per hectare of footprint, exhibits high variations among the cities, with the highest (Shenyang) more than 10 times the lowest (Fuxin). Cities with manufacture, high-tech, and better developed service industries had high eco-efficiency, while those with resources extraction, primary material-making, and less developed service industries had low eco-efficiency. Based on the components and geographical distribution of ecological footprint, strategic policy implications are outlined for Liaoning's development toward a sustainable future.     

中国气候与环境演变评估(I):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势

近百年来,全球气候正经历着一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,全球气候与环境的重大变化对中国的气候与环境演变也产生了重大影响。来自气候、环境、海洋和经济社会科学等领域的百余位专家和学者对中国气候与环境的演变及其对自然生态系统和社会经济部门的影响进行了评估,在此基础上,提出了适应和减缓气候变化的对策。本文主要阐述在全球气候变化背景下中国气候与环境的演变,并对未来气候变化的趋势做出了预测。     

内蒙古中西部地区震源参数和场地响应反演

采用Atkinson方法，基于遗传算法，利用呼和浩特数字地震台网7个子台记录的9次质量较高的地震事件资料，计算了内蒙古中西部地区的品质因子Q值和非弹性衰减系数c（f）。在所研究的频率范围内，前者和频率．厂有很好的线形关系：Q（f）=116．8f^1.000后者与频率．厂的变化关系不明显。在此基础上采用Moya方法反演了7个地震台的场地响应和地震的震源参数，并对它们之间的相互关系进行了讨论。结果显示在所研究的频率域内7个基岩台站的场地均不同程度的存在放大作用，其次震源参数间具有较好的线性关系。本文还详细介绍了Atkinson方法和Moya方法的原理和计算步骤。     

大地形变监测预报在中国西部防震减灾事业中的基础作用

本文以巩固和发挥大地形变地震监测预报基础地位和作用、积极推进中国西部防震减灾事业可持续性和协调性发展为主旨,回顾了西部地区20世纪70年代初至“九五”前期大地形变监测与地震预测研究工作基础,介绍了“九五”后期至今大地形变监测与地震预测研究的主要进展,并对该领域发展中所面临的一些问题进行了初步探讨。     

山西临汾盆地及邻区地震时空分布特征初探

临汾盆地是山西断陷带中地壳结构最复杂、地震活动最强烈的地区.有史料记载以来,发生过M≥4 3/4地震16次,其中8级地震1次,7 3/4级地震1次,6 3/4级与6 1/2级地震各1次,5级～5 1/2级地震11次,4 3/4 级地震1次.     

Vertical structures of PM10 and PM 2.5 and their dynamical character in low atmosphere in Beijing urban areas

The vertical structures and their dynamical character of PM2.5 and PM10 over Beijing urban areas are revealed using the 1 min mean continuous mass concentration data of PM2.5 and PM10 at 8, 100, and 320 m heights of the meteorological observation tower of 325 m at Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP CAS tower hereafter) on 10―26 August, 2003, as well as the daily mean mass concentration data of PM2.5 and PM10 and the continuous data of CO and NO2 at 8, 100 (low layer), 200 (middle layer), and 320 m (high layer) heights, in combination with the same period meteorological field observation data of the meteorological tower. The vertical distributions of aerosols observed on IAP CAS tower in Beijing can be roughly divided into two patterns: gradually and rapidly decreasing patterns, I.e. The vertical distribution of aerosols in calm weather or on pollution day belongs to the gradually decreasing pattern, while one on clean day or weak cold air day belongs to the rapidly decreasing pattern. The vertical distributive characters of aerosols were closely related with the dynamical/thermal structure and turbulence character of the atmosphere boundary layer. On the clean day, the low layer PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were close to those at 8 m height, while the concentrations rapidly decreased at the high layer, and their values were only one half of those at 8 m, especially, the concentration of PM2.5 dropped even more. On the clean day, there existed stronger turbulence below 150 m, aerosols were well mixed, but blocked by the more stronger inversion layer aloft, and meanwhile, at various heights, especially in the high layer, the horizontal wind speed was larger, resulting in the rapid decrease of aerosol concentration, I.e. Resulting in the obvious vertical difference of aerosol concentrations between the low and high layers. On the pollution day, the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at the low, middle, and high layers dropped successively by, on average, about 10% for each layer in comparison with those at 8 m height. On pollution days, in company with the low wind speed, there existed two shallow inversion layers in the boundary layer, but aerosols might be, to some extent, mixed below the inversion layer, therefore, on the pollution day the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 dropped with height slowly; and the observational results also show that the concentrations at 320 m height were obviously high under SW and SE winds, but at other heights, the concentrations were not correlated with wind directions. The computational results of footprint analysis suggest that this was due to the fact that the 320 m height was impacted by the pollutants transfer of southerly flow from the southern peripheral heavier polluted areas, such as Baoding, and Shijiazhuang of Hebei Province, Tianjin, and Shandong Province, etc., while the low layer was only affected by Beijing's local pollution source. The computational results of power spectra and periods preliminarily reveal that under the condition of calm weather, the periods of PM10 concentration at various heights of the tower were on the order of minutes, while in cases of larger wind speed, the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at 320 m height not only had the short periods of minute-order, but also the longer periods of hour order. Consistent with the conclusion previously drawn by Ding et al., that air pollutants at different heights and at different sites in Beijing had the character of "in-phase" variation, was also observed for the diurnal variation and mean diurnal variation of PM2.5 and PM10 at various heights of the tower in this experiment, again confirming the "in-phase" temporal/spatial distributive character of air pollutants in the urban canopy of Beijing. The gentle double-peak character of the mean diurnal variation of PM2.5 and PM10 was closely related with the evident/similar diurnal variation of turbulent momentum fluxes, sensible heat fluxes, and turbulent kinetic energy at various heights in the urban canopy. Besides, under the condition of calm weather, the concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 declined with height slowly, it was 90% of 8 m concentration at the low layer, a little lesser than 90% at the middle layer, and 80% at the high layer, respectively. Under the condition of weak cold air weather, the concentration remarkably dropped with height, it was 70% of 8 m concentration at the low layer, and 20%―30% at the middle and high layers, especially the concentration of PM2.5 was even lower.     

Spatial character of the gaseous and particulate state compound correlation of urban atmospheric pollution in winter and summer

The spatial/temporal variation information of atmospheric dynamic-chemical processes at observation site points of the "canopy" boundary of Beijing urban building ensemble and over urban area "surface", as well as the seasonal correlation structure of the gaseous and particulate states of urban atmospheric pollution (UAP) and its seasonal conversion feature at observation points are investigated, using the comprehensive observation data of the Beijing City Air Pollution Observation Experiment (BECAPEX) in winter and summer 2003 with a "point-surface" combined research approach. By using "one dimension spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF)" principal component analysis (PCA) mode, the seasonal change of gaseous and particulate states of atmospheric aerosols and the association feature of pollutant species under the background of the complicated structure of urban boundary layer (UBL) are analyzed. The comprehensive analyses of the principal components of particle concentrations,gaseous pollutant species, and meteorological conditions reveal the seasonal changes of the complex constituent and structure features of the gaseous and particulate states of UAP to further trace the impact feature of urban aerosol pollution surface sources and the seasonal difference of the component structure of UAP. Research results suggest that in the temporal evolution of the gaseous and particulate states of winter/summer UAP, NOx, CO, and SO2 showed an "in-phase" evolution feature, however, O3 showed an "inverse-phase" relation with other species,all possessing distinctive dependent feature. On the whole, summer concentrations of gaseous pollutants CO, SO2, and NOx were obviously lower than winter ones, especially, the reduction in CO concentration was most distinctive, and ones in SO2 and NOx were next. However, the summer O3 concentration was more than twice winter one. Winter/summer differences in PM10and PM2.5 particle concentrations were relatively not obvious, which indicates that responses of PM10 and PM2.5 particle concentrations to the difference of winter/summer heating period emission sources are far less distinctive than those of NOx, SO2, and CO. The correlation feature of winter/summer gaseous and particulate states depicts that both PM10 and PM2.5 particles were significantly correlated with NOx, and their correlations with NOx are more significant than those with other pollutants. Through PCA, it is found that there was a distinctive difference in the principal component combination structure of winter/summer PM10 and PM2.5 particles: SO2 and NOx dominated in the principal component of winter PM10 and PM2.5 particles; while CO and NOx played the major role in the principal component of summer PM10 and PM2.5 particles. For winter/summer PM10 and PM2.5 particles, there might exist the gaseous and particulate states correlation structures of different "combinations" of such dependent pollutant species. Research results also uncover that the interaction processes of gaseous and particulate states were also related with the vertical structure of UBL, that is to say, the low value layer of UBL O3 concentration was associated with the collocation of atmospheric vertical structures of the low level inversion,inverse humidity, and small wind, which depicts summer boundary layer atmospheric character, i.e.the compound impact of the dependent factor "combination" of wind, temperature, and humidity elements and their collocation structure on the variations of different gaseous pollutant concentrations. Such a depth structure of the extremely low value of O3 concentration in the UBL accords with its "inverse-phase" relation with other gaseous pollutant species. The PCA of meteorological factors associated with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations also reveals the sensitivity of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration to the combinatory feature of local meteorological conditions.