西北地区地震综合预报探讨

本文初步总结了西北地区近十几年来地震综合预报的探索与进展。结果表明,在中长期趋势预测方面,对多数5级以上破坏性地震已具有测震学监测基础,综合预测结果基本上通过了统计检验;在短临预测方面仅对乌鲁木齐地区和兰州、银川、西安和武都范围以内发生的6 1/2级以上地震具有初步的监测基础。由19个震例获得以测震学资料为主的中长期趋势异常共73项,以地下水位、水氧、地电和地磁资料为主的短临异常共59项。本文概述了有关异常的特征和综合预报思路,讨论了有关问题和动向。     

Impacts of the Nakhodka heavy-oil spill on an intertidal ecosystem: an approach to impact evaluation using geographical information system

A major heavy-oil spill from the Russian tanker Nakhodka occurred in the Sea of Japan on 2 January 1997. We investigated the impacts of this spill on a rocky intertidal ecosystem along the southern coast of the Sea of Japan. We selected Imago-Ura Cove as our study site to observe temporal changes along the oiled shore, because minimal cleaning effort was made in this area. Field surveys were conducted every autumn and spring from 1997 to 2000. We measured coverage by macroalgae in 1 x 1-m(2) quadrats and counted the animals in 5 x 5-m(2) quadrats along the intertidal zone. Changes in the ecosystem caused by the oil spill were analyzed by applying a geographical information system (GIS) to the Sea of Japan for the first time. The GIS showed that following the accident there were heavily oiled areas in sheltered regions, but these decreased over the three years. It also showed that coverage by macroalgae and the number of animals increased, although some species of algae with microscopic sporophyte generations, and some populations of perennial shellfish, remained stable or decreased during the study period. GIS was able to trace temporal changes in intertidal communities resulting from the impacts of heavy oil on flora and fauna at a spatial scale of 10-100 m. GIS is thus a practical tool for visualizing, analyzing, and monitoring changes in an ecosystem polluted by oil, taking into account topographic differences along the coastline.     

CAN IMAGE ANALYSIS PROVIDE INFORMATION USEFUL IN CTTEMISTRY?

Images can contain chemical information and many chemical methods can generate image data. For anefficient extraction of chemical data from images, data analysis techniques are necessary, It is a greatadvantage to be able to work on multivariate images. Many imaging techniques allow the extraction ofchemical information. Inorganic analytical chemistry seems to have the longest tradition here, butorganic chemistry and biochemistry may soon be catching up. Also large data arrays from non-imagingtechniques can be combined with image analysis in a useful way, provided certain conditions are fulfilled.     

用苹果机实现24路气象电报自动转报系统

本文介绍了用两台苹果机实现的气象电报自动转报系统的硬件组成,软件组成和实现的功能。     

Seismic and geological structure of the crust in the transition from Baltica to Palaeozoic Europe in SE Poland—CELEBRATION 2000 experiment, profile CEL02

The CELEBRATION 2000 together with the earlier POLONAISE'97 deep seismic sounding experiments was aimed at the recognition of crustal structure in the border zone between the Precambrian East European Craton (Baltica) and Palaeozoic Europe. The CEL02 profile of the CELEBRATION family is a 400-km long SW–NE transect, running in Poland from the Upper Silesia Block (USB), across the Małopolska Block (MB) and the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ) to the East European Craton (EEC). The structure along CEL02 was interpreted using both 2D tomography and forward ray-tracing techniques as well as 2D gravity modelling.The crustal thickness along CEL02 varies from 32–35 km in the USB to 45–47 km beneath the TESZ and the EEC. The USB is a clearly distinctive crustal block with the characteristic high velocity lower crust (7.1–7.2 km/s), interpreted as a fragment of Gondwana. The Kraków–Lubliniec Fault is a terrane boundary produced by soft docking of the USB with the MB. The Małopolska crust fundamentally differs from the USB and has a strong connection with Baltica. It is a transitional, 150- to 200-km wide unit composed of the extended Baltican lower crust and the overlying low velocity (5.15–5.9 km/s) Neoproterozoic metasediments in the up to 18-km thick upper crust. The Łysogóry Unit has its crustal structure identical with that of Małopolska, thus it is connected with Baltica and cannot be interpreted as a Gondwana-derived terrane. Higher velocity and density bodies found below the Mazovia–Lublin Graben at a depth of 12 km and at the base of the lower crust, might be a result of mantle-derived mafic intrusions accompanying the extension of Baltica. By the preliminary 2D gravity modelling, we have reconfirmed the need for considering the increased TESZ mantle density in comparison to the EEC and USB mantle.     

三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探

以三峡库区区域地质构造、活动断裂及库区水文地质特点为基础,借鉴老一辈地震工作者对三峡地区地震地质活动的勘察与科研成果,阐述了蓄水后岩石的库水与地质相互作用对该区水文地质及构造的影响,浅释了三峡库区水库地震孕震机理;用三峡遥测台网及宜昌台定点地壳形变手段在蓄水前后的监测资料,对三峡宜昌库区水库诱发地震作了初步探讨及趋势分析。研究显示,库区地震活动的时空强频随着库区水体的变化而增强,并与活动断层空间分布呈一致性,具备水库地震的明显特征。预测认为:未来三峡宜昌库区的巴东-黔江与高桥断裂带、仙女山、九湾溪及天阳坪断裂交汇带,是诱发ML4.0～4.5水库地震的危险区。     

日本SELENE月球探测计划和卫星间多普勒跟踪的数学模型

日本月球探测计划（SELENE）定于2004年夏季利用HIIa火箭发射一组共3颗绕月人造卫星。他们是主卫星、跟踪中断卫星和空间VLBI电波源。其主要科学目标之一是利用对绕月卫星的多普勒跟踪数据精确测定月球重力场,研究月球的起源与演化。SELENE计划中实现这个科学目标的关键技术是引入中继卫星,目的在于当处于低轨道的主卫星飞行到月球背面地面观测站无法观测时,采用卫星间跟踪方法（SST）,建立地面站与主卫星之间的联系,以得到月球背面重力场的直接测量数据。介绍了几种典型的四程卫星间多普勒跟踪模式和相应的数学模型,并针对SELENE计划中采用的特殊四程多普勒跟踪模式建立了卫星相对观测站速度与跟踪信号多普勒频移之间的转换关系。提出了利用GEODYNⅡ定轨分析软件处理SELENE多普勒跟踪数据的流程。     

走出"公益性地质工作不公益"的误区——公益性地质工作定位与发展方向研究

我国地质勘查体制改革以来，地勘工作体制由计划经济体制向市场经济体制过渡，实行商业性与公益性地质工作分体运行；在改革过程中，公益性地质工作的深层次矛盾日益凸现，具体表现在以下几个方面：