Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Understanding geomorphic responses to environmental change: a 19 000‐year case study from semi‐arid central Texas,USA

Understanding the impact of past climatic changes on landscape stability is crucial in order to predict and mitigate the effects of future changes. However, in arid and semi‐arid environments, reconstructions are often hampered by a poor understanding of the relationship between sediment deposition and climate. We present here data from central Texas, a region that is sensitive to environmental change but has received relatively little attention. The study integrates a chronology of 29 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages from six sedimentary sites in a range of depositional contexts with a 19 000 a climate record derived from pollen extracted from the adjacent Boriack Bog. By comparing the two records, we aimed to assess the relationship between climate change and geomorphic activity. Data show that extensive aeolian and colluvial deposition occurred during the mid to late Holocene, with sedimentation generally increasing during more arid phases. However, a number of depositional events on slopes were associated with moister episodes, and sediment was also deposited in a summit setting immediately after phases of increased precipitation. Linkages between climate change and geomorphic response were therefore complex, being controlled by both sediment supply and transport energy. The climatic fluctuations identified in the Boriack Bog record highlight the sensitivity of central Texas to environmental change, while disparities in conditions recorded between it and other palaeoenvironmental sites in the southern USA emphasise the need for further work in order to enhance understanding of landscape sedimentary response to climate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The radio properties of the cD galaxy of Abell 2390

We present multifrequency, multi-epoch radio imaging of the complex radio source B2151+174 in the core of the cluster, Abell 2390  ( z ≃ 0.23)  . From new and literature data, we conclude that the Faranoff–Riley type II (FRII)-powerful radio source is the combination of a compact, core-dominated 'medium-sized symmetric object' (MSO) with a more extended, steeper spectrum mini-halo. B2151+174 is unusual in a number of important aspects. (i) It is one of the most compact and flat spectrum sources in a cluster core known; (ii) it shows a complex, compact twin-jet structure in a north–south orientation; (iii) the orientation of the jets is 45° misaligned with apparent structure (ionization cones and dust disc) of the host galaxy on larger scales. Since the twin-jet of the MSO has its northern half with an apparent 'twist', it might be that precession of the central supermassive black hole explains this misalignment. B2151+174 may be an example of the early stage (10³–10⁴ yr duration) of a 'bubble' being blown into the intracluster medium where the plasma has yet to expand.     

High-Resolution Observations in B1-IRS: Ammonia, Ccs and Water Masers

We present a study of the structure and dynamics of the star-forming region B1-IRS (IRAS 03301+3057) using the properties of different molecules at high angular resolution (4). We have used VLA observations of NH₃, CCS, and H₂O masers at 1 cm. CCS emission shows three clumps around the central source, with a velocity gradient from red to blue-shifted velocities towards the protostar, probably due to the interaction with outflowing material. Water maser emission is elongated in the same direction as a reflection nebula detected at 2 m by 2MASS, with the maser spots located in a structure of some hundreds of AU from the central source, possibly tracing a jet. We propose a new outflow model to explain all our observations, consisting of a molecular outflow near the plane of the sky. Ammonia emission is extended and anticorrelated with CCS. We have detected for the first time this anticorrelation at small scales (1400 AU) in a star-forming region.     

Ecosystem history of Mississippi River-influenced continental shelf revealed through preserved phytoplankton pigments

Pigments determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) provide useful information concerning water column and epibenthic plant and microbial communities in both extant communities and accumulated sediments in lakes, estuaries and the ocean. Chlorophyll and its degradation products provide an estimate of overall biomass, and carotenoid pigments provide taxonomic biomarkers of phytoplankton. We examined the pigments preserved in sediment cores from the Louisiana continental shelf adjacent to the outflow of the Mississippi River system to document changes in phytoplankton community composition, phytoplankton abundance, and conditions of hypoxia over time. Carbon accumulated in sediments from water depths of 20-60 m is primarily derived from marine phytoplankton and represents the history of phytoplankton communities in the overlying water. There is a general increase in chlorophyll a, pheopigments, zeaxanthin, fucoxanthin and most carotenoids over time, with the change gradual from 1955 to 1970, followed by a fairly steady increase to 1997. The highest chloropigment concentrations are in cores from areas more likely to be exposed to seasonal hypoxia. These indicate an increase in eutrophication in the form of greater diatom and cyanobacterial production, or a worsening of hypoxia, or both. This trend expanded westward along the Louisiana shelf in the 1990s.     

Freshwater geographies: Experimenting with knowing and doing geography differently

The fair and effective governance of freshwater is an increasingly prominent issue in New Zealand. Emerging from a complex of cultural, economic and biophysical narratives, freshwater geographies are multiple, varied and increasingly acknowledged as worthy of interdisciplinary scrutiny. In this commentary, we reflect on a series of generative spaces that we – as group of postgraduate geographers (plus supporting staff) – created to engage with the multiplicity of freshwater meanings both within and beyond the academy. Through this evolving epistemic‐political project, we significantly reframed our own understandings about what freshwater ‘is’ and how it ought to be governed. By pursuing a deeper understanding of how the world gets made, we expand our ability to know and make it differently.     

Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.     

The Ashima/MIT Mars GCM and argon in the martian atmosphere

We investigate the ability of modern general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate transport in the martian atmosphere using measurements of argon as a proxy for the transport processes. Argon provides the simplest measure of transport as it is a noble gas with no sinks or sources on seasonal timescales. Variations in argon result solely from ‘freeze distillation’, as the atmosphere condenses at the winter poles, and from atmospheric transport. Comparison of all previously published models when rescaled to a common definition of the argon enhancement factor (EF) suggest that models generally do a poor job in predicting the peak enhancement in southern winter over the winter pole – the time when the capability of the model transport approaches are most severely tested. Despite observed peak EF values of ～6, previously published model predictions peaked at EF values of only 2–3. We introduce a new GCM that provides a better treatment of mass conservation within the dynamical core, includes more sophisticated tracer transport approaches, and utilizes a cube–sphere grid structure thus avoiding the grid-point convergence problem at the pole that exists for most current Mars GCMs. We describe this model – the Ashima Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mars General Circulation Model (Ashima/MIT Mars GCM) and use it to demonstrate the significant sensitivity of peak EF to the choices of transport approach for both tracers and heat. We obtain a peak EF of 4.75 which, while over 50% higher than any prior model, remains well short of the observed value. We show that the polar EF value in winter is primarily determined by the competition between two processes: (1) mean meridional import of lower-latitude air not enriched in argon and (2) the leakage of enriched argon out of the polar column by eddies in the lowest atmospheric levels. We suggest possibilities for improving GCM representation of the CO₂ cycle and the general circulation that may further improve the simulation of the argon cycle. We conclude that current GCMs may be insufficient for detailed simulation of transport-sensitive problems like the water cycle and potentially also the dust cycle.     

Anion chemistry on Titan: A possible route to large N-bearing hydrocarbons

The reaction of CN^? with cyanoacetylene (HC₃N), has been studied as a function of the HC₃N pressure in a quadrupole tandem mass spectrometer. The mass spectra revealed the fast depletion of the CN^? parent ion and formation of larger anions of rapidly growing size. Most of the ions observed were found to belong to two series of products: (HC₃N)_x·C_2p+1N^? and (HC₃N)_x·C_2pN^? resulting from the sequential additions of HC₃N molecules and loss of HCN or HCCN molecules. The mechanism and energetics of the first two reaction steps are briefly discussed. The laboratory data are compared with those from the Cassini CAPS-ELS spectrometer. It is believed that the reactions observed could account for the growth of anions in Titan’s ionosphere.     

Contributing Areas to Domestic Wells in Dipping Sedimentary Rocks under Extreme Recharge Events

We use particle tracking to determine contributing areas (CAs) to wells for transient flow models that simulate cyclic domestic pumping and extreme recharge events in a small synthetic watershed underlain by dipping sedimentary rocks. The CAs consist of strike-oriented bands at locations where the water table intersects high-hydraulic conductivity beds, and from which groundwater flows to the pumping well. Factors that affect the size and location of the CAs include topographic flow directions, rock dip direction, cross-bed fracture density, and position of the well relative to streams. For an effective fracture porosity (n_e) of 10⁻⁴, the fastest advective travel times from CAs to wells are only a few hours. These results indicate that wells in this type of geologic setting can be highly vulnerable to contaminants or pathogens flushed into the subsurface during extreme recharge events. Increasing n_e to 10⁻³ results in modestly smaller CAs and delayed well vulnerability due to slower travel times. CAs determined for steady-state models of the same setting, but with long-term average recharge and pumping rates, are smaller than CAs in the models with extreme recharge. Also, the earliest-arriving particles arrive at the wells later in the steady-state models than in the extreme-recharge models. The results highlight the importance of characterizing geologic structure, simulating plausible effective porosities, and simulating pumping and recharge transience when determining CAs in fractured rock aquifers to assess well vulnerability under extreme precipitation events.