Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)

The determination of strong earthquakes’ recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with M_w ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, M_w ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson–Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of M_w ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results.     

Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Mediterranean lake–wetland systems are threatened by climate change and intensive human impacts. Individual lake responses to these threats are poorly known but urgently required to steer preservation strategies. The dramatic water-level fall (~8 m since 1987) of Lake Megali Prespa endangers this global biodiversity hotspot and the wider catchment’s water resources. Annual lake fluctuations are found to be strongly related to wet-season (Oct.–Apr.) precipitation variability, which is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The lake primarily adjusts to sustained inflow changes through amending surface evaporation. Cumulative water abstraction since 1951 (~19 × 10⁶ m³/year: ~0.006% of lake volume) explains ~70% of the long-term decrease in surface evaporation; climate variability explains the remainder. Persistent low lake levels after 1995 are caused by water abstraction. Compared to 1952/53–1977/78, the period 1978/79–2003/04 experienced significant decreases in wet-season precipitation, snowfall and discharge; the number of very dry years increased.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten     

The Boussinesq problem for soils with bounded non-homogeneity

The response of a compressible continuously non-homogeneous elastic soil to a static vertical point load on its surface is analytically investigated by using classical integral transform techniques and the extended power series method for obtaining the solution in the transform domain. The non-homogeneity is described by means of a depth-function which is non-zero at the surface and bounded at infinity and is capable in modelling both increasing and decreasing soil stiffness with depth. The influence of non-homogeneity on the displacements and stresses at the surface and in the interior is examined over a wide range on the governing parameters. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A cervelleite-like mineral and other Ag-Cu-Te-S minerals [Ag2CuTeS and (Ag,Cu)2TeS] in gold-bearing veins in metamorphic rocks of the Cycladic Blueschist Unit, Kallianou, Evia Island, Greece

A cervelleite-like mineral, two unnamed silver sulfotellurides in the system Ag-Cu-Te-S [Ag₂CuTeS, (Ag,Cu)₂TeS], Te-rich polybasite and cadmian tetrahedrite occur in gold-bearing quartz veins in metapelites and faults within brecciated marbles of the Cycladic Blueschist Unit in the Kallianou area (southern Evia Island, Greece). The quartz veins and faults are discordant to syn-metamorphic structures and formed during ductile to brittle deformation in the final stages of exhumation of the Styra Nappe extrusion wedge (~21?Ma). Te-rich polybasite (up to 7.4 wt. % Te), cadmian tetrahedrite (up to 12.4 wt. % Cd), together with electrum (23?C54 wt. % Ag) and the sulfotellurides, are the main silver carriers in the mineralization. The two unnamed sulfotellurides, Ag₂CuTeS and (Ag,Cu)₂TeS are believed to be new quaternary minerals in the system Ag-Cu-Te-S. These minerals and the cervelleite-like phase could have exsolved from galena during cooling (below 200°C). Initial temperatures for the formation of the sulfotellurides, in the form of hessite-intermediate solid solution, at Kallianou may be up to 300°C under logfS₂ values between?~ ?11.5 to ?8.3, and logfTe₂ from?~ ?14.8 to ?7.8. The values of logfTe₂ and logfS₂ during re-equilibration (at ~200°C) were constrained to ?19.5 to ?15.2 and to ?15.8 to ?11.5 respectively.     

Macrobenthic community changes due to dystrophic events and freshwater inflow: Changes in space and time in a Mediterranean lagoon (Gialova lagoon, SW Greece)

This paper considers the hypothesis that changes in community structure through the control of the larvae maintenance and of the biological traits of the species mostly contribute to the spatio-temporal community pattern. This is supported by the results of the study, the changes to the macrobenthic community pattern deriving from two sampling periods in Gialova lagoon (SW Greece), carried out on a seasonal basis for two yearly periods: 1994-95 and 1998-99. Cognetti’s hypothesis that populations of the tolerant species occupying coastal marine habitats may belong to different species is another alternative hypothesis still to be tested. The importance of alternative management plans aiming at the amelioration of the hydrodynamic conditions of the lagoons and supported by continuous scientific monitoring is highlighted. Two canals bringing fresh water were opened at the beginning of the second sampling period, an intervention among others, suggested by the management plan proposed after the end of the first sampling period. The results show considerable variations in the values of the key environmental variables, for instance long periods with negative Redox potential values, decreased salinity and increased concentrations of the particulate organic matter and of the nutrients. The variables were correlated with the spatio-temporal community pattern, characterized during the second sampling period by: (i) greater dissimilarities among stations/seasons; (ii) disruption of the periodic trend observed on the seasonal scale; (iii) larger relative dissimilarities among the patterns stemming from the macrobenthos and the most abundant groups (polychaetes, molluscs, crustaceans); (iv) significant decrease in abundance or even the disappearance of several marine origin species, along with increased abundance in a few brackish-water species. All of the above changes in the community pattern are considered as early warning signals leading towards degradation, which has not yet been registered in the phylogenetic/taxonomic structure of the macrobenthic community.     

An integrated approach of flash flood analysis in ungauged Mediterranean watersheds using post-flood surveys and unmanned aerial vehicles

This study analyzes the flash flood event of two ungauged ephemeral streams in Olympiada region (Chalkidiki, North Greece), which occurred at the 21–22 of November 2019. Aim of the study is to reconstruct the specific flash flood event, investigate the causes of flood generation mechanisms, evaluate the performance of SCS-CN hydrological and HEC-RAS hydraulic models, investigate the relation between extreme flash floods and human intervention, using the combination of ground and aerial observations obtained from the field survey and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), respectively. The results of the specific discharge ranged between 9 and 11 m³ s⁻¹ km², values that are typical for flash flood events in Mediterranean region. The comparison between the observed and simulated values of flood extent showed sufficiently good performance of the hydraulic model (CSI = 82%). However, the statistical analysis of the observed and simulated flood depths displayed a flood depth overestimation by the applied model, despite that the values of the used statistic indexes are acceptable (RMSE = 0.35 m, SD = 0.53, NSE = 0.56, PBIAS = 11.26%). The model overestimation of flood depth was attributed to the DEM low resolution and quality. Ground and aerial observations depicted the alluvial fan activation, the alternation of flow paths and the huge sediment transport. Human intervention in main streams, urban sprawl, wet AMC and sediment transport were among the main factors that contributed to the flash flood generation. This integrated approach revealed the necessity of the constant evaluation and validation of hydrological and hydraulic models in small ungauged Mediterranean watersheds and ephemeral streams. The use of UAVs in combination with ground observations and hydraulic simulation could significantly contribute to the enhanced understanding of flash flood mechanisms, in the direction of flood risk mitigation, improvement of the planning efficiency of flood prevent measures, flood hazard estimation, evolution of flood warning systems and floodplain geomorphology analysis.     

The Structure and the Partial Opacity of the Spiral Shocks on the Novalike Cataclysmic Variables

V347 Pup is the first novalike system with clear spiral arms in its accretion disc, as evidenced from its HeI Doppler maps. Combining the Doppler maps of the various lines of the system V347 Pup a more complex structure is revealed on the first arm. On the Doppler maps of HeI λ5875 emission line the first arm splits to two smaller and thinner structures. The Doppler map of HeI λ6678 emission line shows that this line dominates the region of thin structure with higher velocities that we met on the Doppler map of HeI λ5875 emission line. On the contrary the Hα emission line dominates the region of thin structure with lower velocities. We therefore observe, that the Hα emission line dominates on the exterior of the first arm, and the emission line of HeI on the interior. Most of NaI is probably emanated from the white dwarf or from the interior of the disc, and then being absorbed by the spiral shocks.     

Structural identification of Egnatia Odos bridges based on ambient and earthquake induced vibrations

The dynamic characteristics of two representative R/C bridges on Egnatia Odos motorway in Greece are estimated based on low amplitude ambient and earthquake-induced vibrations. The present work outlines the instrumentation details, algorithms for computing modal characteristics (modal frequencies, damping ratios and modeshapes), modal-based finite element model (FEM) updating methods for estimating structural parameters, and numerical results for the modal and structural dynamic characteristics of the two bridges based on ambient and earthquake induced vibrations. Transverse, bending and longitudinal modes are reliably identified and stiffness-related properties of the piers, deck and elastomeric bearings of the FEMs of the two bridges are estimated. Results provide qualitative and quantitative information on the dynamic behavior of the bridge systems and their components under low-amplitude vibrations. Modeling assumptions are discussed based on the differences in the characteristics identified from ambient and earthquake vibration measurements. The sources of the differences observed between the identified modal and structural characteristics of the bridges and those predicted by FEMs used for design are investigated and properly justified.     

Spatial patterns of biodiversity in the Black Sea: An assessment using benthic polychaetes

The current study broadens the biodiversity information available for the Black Sea and neighbouring regions and improves our knowledge about the polychaete biogeographic patterns to be discerned in them. There appears to be a well-defined zoogeocline from the Marmara Sea and Bosphorus Strait to the inner parts of the region (Azov Sea), depicted both as a multivariate pattern and in terms of species (or taxa) numbers. The emergent multivariate pattern complies, to a certain extent, with Jakubova’s (1935) views: three main sectors can be defined in the basin: (a) Prebosphoric, (b) the Black Sea and, (c) the Azov Sea, whereas the Bosphorus Strait and Marmara Sea show less faunal affinities with the afore-mentioned sectors. Patterns derived both from the cosmopolitan and Atlanto-Mediterranean species closely follow the one coming from the polychaete species and genera inventories. As a general trend, species numbers decrease along with the decrease in salinity towards the inner parts of the region. The trend is homologous to that seen in the benthic invertebrate inventories of all the major European semi-enclosed regional seas. Salinity and food availability appear to be the dominant abiotic factors correlated, though weakly, with the various patterns deriving from the taxonomic/zoogeographic categories. With the exception of the Anatolia, polychaete inventories from all sectors appear to be random samples of the total inventory of the region, in terms of taxonomic distinctness values. Therefore, these sectoral inventories can be used for future biodiversity/environmental impact assessment studies. A massive invasion of Mediterranean species after the opening of the Black Sea, in the lower Quaternary period, appears to be the likely biogeographic mechanism through which the old Sarmatic fauna was almost completely replaced by species of marine origin.