Airline networks and the international diffusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)

In fewer than four months in 2003, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread from China to 25 countries and Taiwan, becoming the first new, easily transmissible infectious disease of the twenty-first century. The role of air transport in the diffusion of the disease became obvious early in the crisis; to assess that role more carefully, this study relates the spatial-temporal pattern of the SARS outbreak to a measure of airline network accessibility. Specifically, the accessibility from those countries that were infected by SARS, beginning with China, to other countries was measured using airline schedules. The country-pair accessibility measure, along with other country-level factors relevant to the disease, were tested as determinants of the speed with which SARS arrived in infected countries as well as its failure to arrive in most countries. The analyses indicate that airline network accessibility was an especially influential variable but also that the importance of this variable diminished in the latter weeks of the outbreak. The latter finding is partly attributable to public health measures, particularly health screening in airports. The timing and geography of those measures are reviewed using data from media reports and interim World Health Organization (WHO) documents during the outbreak. The uneven effort to curtail the international diffusion of SARS suggests further planning is needed to develop a concerted response to contain future epidemics.     

The research front in Arctic Quaternary geology

Book reviewed in this article:
Andrews, J. T. (ed.) 1985. Quaternary Environments: Eastern Canadian Arctic, Baffin Bay and Western Greenland     

Quaternary International

Book reviewed in this article:
Quaternary International. Edited by N. Rutterin associationwith N. R. Catto     

Glacial history of interior Jameson Land, East Greenland

The plateaus between 400 and 800 m a.s.l. around the water-divides on central and eastern Janieson Land are covered by the 'Jameson Land Drift' up to 50 m thick glacial. placiotluvial and glaciolacustrine deposits. A high content of far-travelled wcsterii rocks indicates the overriding by extensive glaciers channelled from the west through the Scoresby Sund basin. The Jameson Land Drift deposits have bccn lithostratigraphically divided into two groups. each representing the sedimentary successions from one glaciation in the wider sense of the word. sediments from the lower Lollandselv glaciation are upwards delimited by a distinct periglacial surface. TL-dates suggest a prc-Saalian (approximately isotope stages 11–9) age. The following Scoreshby Sund glaciation . when most of the studied Jameson Land Drift sediments were laid down. is of Saalian age (e. isotope stages 8 6). The deposits from the Scoresby Sund glaciation are interpreted as representing a complete glaciation deglaciation succession, including proglacial sandur and glaciolacustrine sediments. followed by till deposition, with an overlying succession of glaciolacustrinc and glaciofluvial sediments. From 200–250 m to c . 400 m a.s.l. there is a driftless area, exposing Jurassic sandstones, probably a result of intensive and long-lasting periglacial erosion. Extensive occurrences of tors and of glaciofluvially (subglacially as well as subaerially) eroded canyons and channels characterize the landscape. A similar. although less well defined. upper driftless zone is found above c 500 m a.s.l. on northern Jameson Land, north of the drift-covered plateaus. During the Wcichsclian (isotope stages 5d 2). thick glacial. fluvial and marine deposits were laid down in a coastal zone below c . 200 m a.s.l., and only cold-based local ice caps seem to have existed on the interior plateaus of Jameson Land. The now driftless areas were characterized by periglacial erosion during this period.     

Glacial history and shoreline displacement on Erdmannflya and Bohemanflya, Spitsbergen, Svalbard

Traces of former glaciation were studied on Erdmannflya and Bohemanflya. Both peninsulas were probably completely covered by glaciers during the Late Weichselian and the final dcglaciation took place around years BP. Esmarkbreen readvanced shortly after 9,500 BP, probably a local and shortlasting event. Raised beaches occur to about 60 m above sea level, and date back to about 10,000 BP. Initial land emergence was rapid, about 3m/100 years. It seems to have been followed by a marine transgression between 8,500 and 7,500 BP, which resulted in a large and distinct beach bridge and marine abrasion cliffs about 10-12 m above present sea level. Mytilus edulis lived in the area between at least 9.000 and 5,000 BP. Five thousand years ago relative sea level probably stood 3-4 m higher than today. Relative sea level has remained close to present during the last centuries. Different positions of glacier fronts in this century have also been mapped.     

ATTILA: atmospheric tracer transport in a Lagrangian model

The model ATTILA has been developed to treat the global-scale transport of passive trace species in the atmosphere within the framework of a general circulation model (GCM). ATTILA runs online within the GCM ECHAM4 and advects the centroids of 80.000 to 190.000 constant mass air parcels. Each trace constituent is thereby represented by a mass mixing ratio in each parcel. ATTILA contains state-of-the-art parameterizations of convection, turbulent boundary layer mixing and inter-parcel transport, and provides an algorithm to map the tracer concentrations from the trajectories to the ECHAM model grid. The transport characteristics of ATTILA are evaluated against observations and the standard semi-Lagrangian transport scheme of ECHAM by two experiments. (1) We simulate the distribution of the short-lived tracer radon (²²²Rn) in order to examine fast vertical transport over continents, and long-range transport from the continents to remote areas. (2) We simulate the distribution of radiocarbon (¹⁴C) from nuclear weapon tests in order to examine upper tropospheric and stratospheric transport characteristics. Contrary to the semi-Lagrangian scheme, ATTILA shows a greatly reduced meridional transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and a reduced downward flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere, especially in mid-latitudes. Since ATTILA is a numerically non-diffusive scheme, it is able to maintain steep gradients, which compare better to the observations than the rather smooth gradients produced by the semi-Lagrangian scheme.     

Crystallization Pressure and Cooling History of the Giles Layered Igneous Complex, Central Australia

The Giles Complex, central Australia, consists of a series oflarge layered gabbroic/ultramafic intrusions emplaced in acidicand intermediate granulites of the Middle Proterozoic Musgraveblock. Lithologies range from well-layered dunite, wehrlite,and pyroxenite in the lower primitive series, to massive olivinegabbro, gabbronorite, and anorthosite in the main units, andferrodiorites, vanadife-rous magnetite layers, and granophyresin the upper, most fractionated parts. Unlike many layered intrusions,the Giles Complex is tectonically dismembered to an extent thata reconstruction of the original morphology is difficult. The Complex is believed to be a type example for medium- tohigh-pressure differentiation. (1) Chilled margin samples (wherepreserved) are orthopyroxene-phyric, and liquidus olivine isreplaced by liquidus orthopyroxene at an mg-number of 0.77,suggesting a pressure-related expansion of the orthopyroxenestability field (Goode & Moore, 1975). (2) Tschermaks substitutioninto pyroxene and plagioclase-orthoclase solid solution areextensive, indicating unusually high crystallization temperaturerelated to high pressure; antiperthites in the Giles Complexare amongst the most calcic reported for terrestrial rocks.(3) The lower primitive cumulate units of the Complex are coroniticand feature a variety of subsolidus high-pressure reaction textures;olivine and cumulus chromite have reacted with calcic plagioclaseto orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene-spinel, olivine-spinel, and clinopyroxene-spinelsymplectites. The principal reaction mechanism for the symplectites was continuousmass transfer of alumina from plagioclase toward spinel, asthe Complex passed from the olivine-plagioclase stability fieldinto the pyroxene-spinel field during cooling. Geothermometersapplicable to the cumulates record a wide range of equilibrationtemperatures from late-magmatic to granulite-metamorphic conditions.FeMg₁ exchange gives closure temperatures around 600–700?C,whereas Al₂Mg₁Si₁ net-transfer equilibria have preserved highertemperatures around 750–900 ?C. Defocused beam bulk analysesof exsolved cumulus clinopyroxenes and intercumulus plagioclasesrecover magmatic compositions; i. e., two-pyroxene solvus CaMg_-1temperatures plot around 1120?50?C, whereas two-feldspar thermometersgive 1200?C. Pressures are calculated from thermochemical data with the heterogeneousequilibria 2 fo + an = en + di + sp, fo + an = di + Mg-Ts, andfo + an = en + Ca-Ts, after correcting spinel activities forselective retrograde FeMg_-1 exchange during cooling. These equilibria,combined with orthopyroxene-spinel Al₂Mg_-1Si_-1 temperaturesfor metamorphic assemblages and two-pyroxene temperatures forcumulus phases define a medium-pressure cooling path extendingfrom 1150 ?C (at 6?5 kb) to 750 ?C (at 6?2 kb). The resultssuggest an isobaric cooling path for the Giles Complex, withno evidence for a post-intrusive metamorphic overprint. Themagmas intruded at lower to middle crustal levels after thepervasive deformation in the Musgrave block, and probably afterthe peak metamorphic event.     

A glacial chronology for northern East Greenland

In East Greenland between 75 and 76N three different glacial episodes can be identified: (1) An early period with more or less total ice cover and in which the ice reached out onto the continental shelf - the Kap Mackenzie stadial; (2) a period with glaciation of intermediate extent, when nunataks and a few ice-free lowland areas existed - the Muschelbjerg stadial; and (3) a final period with glacial advance, when the glaciers were mainly restricted to fjords and larger valleys - the Nanok stadial. Each of these stadials was followed by a period with general deglaciation, from which marine shell-bearing sediments have been found; the Hochstetter Forland interstadial, the Peters Bugt interstadial and the Flandrian interglacial, respectively. The marine limit sank with each of these ice-free periods; probably an isostatic effect of the decreasing amplitude of the glacial advances. The deglaciation after the Nanok stadial began about 9500 B.P. It is not known for certain when this glacial advance started, but 13,000 B.P. or earlier is suggested. According to ¹⁴C datings the Peters Bugt interstadial dates from at least 45,000 B.P. and the Hochstetter Forland interstadial from at least 49,000 B.P. However, amino acid analyses indicate a distinct age difference between these two interstadial, and Th/U datings give age estimates of 70,000–115,000 B.P. for the Hochstetter Forland interstadial, which therefore seems to be of Early Weichselian age although a pre-Weichselian age cannot be excluded. The same applies to the preceding Kap Mackenzie stadial. The correspondence between the present glacial chronology and similar tripartite ones on Bafffin Island, Ellesmere Island and Svalbard seems reasonably good