Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.     

Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM

Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation of the fast waves is done implicitly. After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale. Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001     

Exhumed fault-bounded Alpine blocks along the Periadriatic lineament: the Eder unit (Carnic Alps, Austria)

The Eder unit in the Carnic Alps, which is situated immediately south of the Periadriatic lineament (PL), represents a fault-bounded block consisting of a low-grade (up to 400?°C, indicated by epizonal illite “crystallinity” values, recrystallized quartz, and non-recrystallized white mica) metamorphic Paleozoic metasedimentary sequence. Until now, it has been assumed to represent a separate Variscan nappe. The rocks of the Eder unit show a strong E- to W-oriented stretching lineation on steep foliation planes (D₁) subparallel to the PL. D₁ structures originated near the temperature peak of metamorphism, and shear sense indicators show dextral ductile shear parallel to the PL. Tight mesoscale D₂ folds formed on the cooling path. K–Ar and Ar–Ar ages from newly formed white mica cluster around 32–28 and 18–13 Ma and suggest a two-stage Tertiary history of the Eder unit. We interpret the Eder unit as a fault-bounded block formed during Oligocene large-scale dextral shearing along the PL (near T_max) and exhumed in mid-Miocene times during another phase of activity along the PL. Its nature as a separate Variscan nappe is questioned.     

Stratigraphy of the upper cretaceous and lower tertiary strata in the Tethyan Himalayas of Tibet (Tingri area,China)

The 1500-m-thick marine strata of the Tethys Himalaya of the Zhepure Mountain (Tingri, Tibet) comprise the Upper Albian to Eocene and represent the sedimentary development of the passive northern continental margin of the Indian plate. Investigations of foraminifera have led to a detailed biozonation which is compared with the west Tethyan record. Five stratigraphic units can be distinguished: The Gamba group (Upper Albian - Lower Santonian) represents the development from a basin and slope to an outer-shelf environment. In the following Zhepure Shanbei formation (Lower Santonian - Middle Maastrichtian), outer-shelf deposits continue. Pebbles in the top layers point to beginning redeposition on a continental slope. Intensified redeposition continues within the Zhepure Shanpo formation (Middle Maastrichtian - Lower Paleocene). The series is capped by sandstones of the Jidula formation (Danian) deposited from a seaward prograding delta plain. The overall succession of these units represents a sea-level high at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary followed, from the Turonian to Danian, by an overall shallowing-upward megasequence. This is followed by a final transgression — regression cycle during the Paleocene and Eocene, documented in the Zhepure Shan formation (?Upper Danian - Lutetian) and by Upper Eocene continental deposits. The section represents the narrowing and closure of the Tethys as a result of the convergence between northward-drifting India and Eurasia. The plate collision started in the Lower Maastrichtian and caused rapid changes in sedimentation patterns affected by tectonic subsidence and uplift. Stronger subsidence and deposition took place from the Middle Maastrichtian to the Lower Paleocene. The final closure of remnant Tethys in the Tingri area took place in the Lutetian.     

The Silurian of Gotland (Sweden): facies interpretation based on stable isotopes in brachiopod shells

The Silurian of Gotland, Sweden, consists of 440 m of carbonate deposits. Repeatedly, uniform sequences of micritic limestones and marls are interrupted by complex-structured reefs and by adjacent platform sediments. Generally, the alteration of facies is interpreted as the result of sea-level fluctuations caused by a gradual regression with superimposed minor transgressive pulses. The purpose of this study is a facies interpretation based on both field observations and stable isotope measurements of brachiopod shells. Approximately 700 samples from stratigraphically arranged localities in different facies areas have been investigated. The carbon and oxygen isotopes show principally parallel curves and a close relationship to the stratigraphic sequence. Lower values occur in periods dominated by deposition of marly sequences. Higher values are observed in periods dominated by reefs and extended carbonate platforms. The oxygen isotope ratios are interpreted to reflect paleosalinity changes due to varying freshwater input, rather than to paleotemperature. Carbon isotope ratios are believed to have been connected to global changes in the burial of organic carbon in black shales during periods of euxinic deep water conditions. Consequently, the facies succession on Gotland results from global paleoclimatic conditions. Changes in terrigenous input due to different rates of weathering and freshwater runoff, rather than sea-level fluctuations, control the carbonate formation of the Silurian on Gotland.     

Accretion and exhumation at a Variscan active margin, recorded in the Saxothuringian flysch

The Saxothuringian flysch basin, on the north flank of the Central European Variscides, was fed and eventually overthrust by the northwestern, active margin of the Tepla-Barrandian terrane. Clast spectra, mineral composition and isotopic ages of detrital mica and zircon have been analyzed in order to constrain accretion and exhumation of rocks in the orogenic wedge. The earliest clastic sediments preserved are of early Famennian age (ca. 370?Ma). They are exposed immediately to the NW of the suture, and belong to the par-autochthon of the foreland. Besides ultramafic (?ophiolite) material, these rocks contain clasts derived from Early Paleozoic continental slope sediments, originally deposited at the NW margin of the Saxothuringian basin. These findings, together with the paleogeographic position of the Famennian clastics debris on the northwestern passive margin, indicate that the Saxothuringian narrow ocean had been closed by that time. Microprobe analyses of detrital hornblendes suggest derivation from the “Randamphibolit” unit, now present in the middle part of the Saxothuringian allochthon (Münchberg nappes). Detrital zircons of metamorphic rocks formed a little earlier (ca. 380?Ma) indicate rapid recycling at the tectonic front. The middle part of the flysch sequence (ca. early to middle Viséan), both in the par-autochthon and in the allochthon, contains abundant clasts of Paleozoic rocks derived from the northwestern slope and rise, together with debris of Cadomian basement, 500-Ma granitoids and 380?Ma (early Variscan) crystalline rocks. All of these source rocks were still available in the youngest part of the flysch (c. middle to late Viséan), but some clasts record, in addition, accretion of the northwestern shelf. Our findings permit deduction of minimum rates of tectonic shortening well in excess of 10–30?mm per year, and rates of exhumation of ca. 3?mm/a, and possibly more.     

Comparison of Cu and Zn cycling in eutrophic lakes with oxic and anoxic hypolimnion

Data on the cycling of Cu and Zn in two eutrophic lakes are presented: Lake Greifen that becomes seasonally anoxic in its hypolimnion and Lake Sempach that is aerated during winter and oxygenated during summer. They suggest that hypolimnetic oxygenation 1) enhances the release of copper from the sediment but 2) also accelerates the entrapment and deposition of Cu and Zn by freshly formed Mn- and Fe-oxides.     

A reexamination of the valley wind system in the Alpine Inn Valley with numerical simulations

Summary This paper presents idealized numerical simulations of the valley wind circulation in the Alpine Inn Valley, which are compared with existing data and are used to improve our dynamical understanding of the valley wind. The simulations have been performed with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. They use a high-resolution realistic topography but idealized large-scale conditions without any synoptic forcing to focus on the thermally induced valley wind system. The comparison with the available observations shows that this simplified set-up is sufficient to reproduce the essential features of the valley wind.The results show that the tributaries of the Inn Valley have a considerable impact on the along-valley mass fluxes associated with the valley wind circulation. The upvalley mass flux is found to increase where tributaries enter the Inn Valley from the north, that is, from the direction where the Alpine foreland is located. On the other hand, the upvalley mass flux is reduced at the junctions with southern tributaries because part of the upvalley flow is deflected into these tributaries. For the downvalley flow, the situation is essentially reversed, but the influence of the valley geometry on the flow structure is larger than for the upvalley flow. The most important feature is a lateral valley contraction near the valley exit into the Alpine foreland. It reduces the downvalley mass flux at low levels, so that the wind maximum in the interior of the valley is shifted to a fairly large distance from the ground. North of the valley contraction, however, the downvalley flow strongly accelerates and forms a pronounced low-level jet. A dynamical analysis indicates that this acceleration can be interpreted as a transition from subcritical to supercritical hydraulic flow. Another interesting feature is that the low-level jet maintains its structure for several tenths of kilometres into the Alpine foreland. This appears to be related to the fact that the lateral wind shear on the flanks of the jet is associated with a strong dipole of potential vorticity (PV). Due to the conservation properties of the PV, the downstream advection of the PV dipole leads to the formation of a band-like feature that decays fairly slowly.     

Climate and Water: From Climate Models to Water Resources Management and Vice Versa

This article reviews the recent developments in the functional chain from climate models to climate scenarios, through hydrology all the way to water resources management, design and policy making. Although climate models, such as Global Circulation Models (GCMs) continue to evolve, their outputs remain crude and often even inappropriate to watershed-scale hydrological analyses. The bridging techniques are evolving, though. Many families of regionalization technologies are under progress in parallel. Perhaps the most important advances are in the field of regional weather patterns, such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and many more. The gap from hydrology to water resources development is by far not that wide. The traditional and contemporary practices are well in place. In climate change studies, the bottleneck is not in this link itself but in the climatic input. The tendency seems to be towards integrated water resources assessments, where climate is only one among many changes that are expected to occur, such as demography, land cover and land use, economy, technologies, and so forth. In such a pragmatic setting a risk–analytic interpretation of those scenarios is often called for. The above-outlined continuum from climate to water is a topic where the physically based modelers, the empiricists and the pragmatists should not get restricted to their own way of thinking. The issues should develop hand in hand. Perhaps the greatest challenge is to incorporate and respect the pragmatic policy-related component to the two other branches. For this purpose, it is helpful to reverse the direction of thinking from time to time to start—instead of climate models—from practical needs and think how the climate scenarios and models help really in the difficult task of designing better water structures, outline better policies and formulate better operational rules in the water field.     

Revising macroseismic data in Switzerland: The December 20, 1720 earthquake in the region of Lake Constance

Upgrading the Earthquake Catalog of Switzerland (ECOS) included revising the earthquake of 1720. This change has major importance for history and seismology.Although that quake has been the subject of several publications, none was based on critical methods. This re-evaluation of the event is built upon a new and more reliable database established after investigating archives and libraries. Using data from such historical sources, we assigned new site intensities, adopting the criteria established by the European macroseismic scale EMS 98 (Grünthal, 1998).We discovered that the event had been assigned an overestimated intensity, due to interpretation errors in former earthquake catalogs and compilations. We recommend reducing the intensity from I₀= VIII to I₀= VI (EMS 98). The moment magnitude is given as M_W= 4.6. Since the event had been considered the largest for its respective area, downgrading it now will influence the seismic hazard assessment for this region.