Little variability of methane on Mars induced by adsorption in the regolith

The mechanisms that can induce short term variations of methane in the Martian atmosphere, and thus explain the observations currently available, are yet to be discovered. Seasonal exchange with the regolith, caused by reversible adsorption, is expected to induce both spatial and time variabilities without the need for additional sources and sinks, thus avoiding difficulties raised by other scenarios. However, a comprehensive view of the role of reversible exchanges with the subsurface was still lacking. We have investigated the efficiency of such a process by implementing a coupled subsurface–atmosphere transport module in a Global Climate Model, taking into account both the thermodynamics and the kinetics of the adsorption process. It is based on recent experimental data on the adsorption of methane. We show that even with an optimistic set of parameters, and although the regolith can potentially take up a large fraction of the atmospheric reservoir, the seasonal variability induced by an exchange with the subsurface is very limited. If a local plume is detected, however, the apparent decay rate of methane in the atmosphere can be affected by the regolith uptake. This study could be extended to any trace gas reacting with the regolith, to help interpret future in situ or orbital measurements.     

Explaining the redox imbalance between the H and O escape fluxes at Mars by the oxidation of methane

From a comparison between the different observations of Martian methane existing today, including the new TES methane maps (Fonti and Marzo, 2010), we show that all sets of data are globally consistent with each other, and that a well definite seasonal cycle of methane has been at work for at least 10 yr. With a simple model of the balance between the loss fluxes of H and O, using up-to-date values of the escape fluxes, we show that the long-standing enigma of the imbalance between H and O escape fluxes may be solved by assuming that the missing sink of oxygen is the oxidation of methane. If no H₂ is released together with CH₄, a good agreement is found between the present CH₄ flux and the value imposed by the balance between H and O escape fluxes, an average over the last ≈10³ yr. If H₂ is released together with CH₄, as expected if CH₄ originates in serpentinization, the average level of CH₄ during the last 10³ yr should have been at least ten times lower than the present one. The lack of present H₂ release could suggest a long-term storage of methane in the subsurface under the form of clathrates, whereas H₂ has been lost to the atmosphere shortly after being produced. We suggest that the thin layer of CO₂ ice covering the permanent southern polar cap could result from the release of methane since the end of the last obliquity transition (time scale: 1 Myr), at an average rate of 0.1 Mt yr^?1, consistent with the values derived from: (i) the present observations of methane (time scale: 10 yr), (ii) the estimate from the observed imbalance between the H and O escape fluxes (time scale: 1 kyr). If so, the present release of methane from subsurface clathrates would have acted at a similar rate since at least 3 Myr.     

Morphology, dynamics and plasma parameters of plumes and inter-plume regions in solar coronal holes

Coronal plumes, which extend from solar coronal holes (CH) into the high corona and??possibly??into the solar wind (SW), can now continuously be studied with modern telescopes and spectrometers on spacecraft, in addition to investigations from the ground, in particular, during total eclipses. Despite the large amount of data available on these prominent features and related phenomena, many questions remained unanswered as to their generation and relative contributions to the high-speed streams emanating from CHs. An understanding of the processes of plume formation and evolution requires a better knowledge of the physical conditions at the base of CHs, in plumes and in the surrounding inter-plume regions. More specifically, information is needed on the magnetic field configuration, the electron densities and temperatures, effective ion temperatures, non-thermal motions, plume cross sections relative to the size of a CH, the plasma bulk speeds, as well as any plume signatures in the SW. In spring 2007, the authors proposed a study on ??Structure and dynamics of coronal plumes and inter-plume regions in solar coronal holes?? to the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Bern to clarify some of these aspects by considering relevant observations and the extensive literature. This review summarizes the results and conclusions of the study. Stereoscopic observations allowed us to include three-dimensional reconstructions of plumes. Multi-instrument investigations carried out during several campaigns led to progress in some areas, such as plasma densities, temperatures, plume structure and the relation to other solar phenomena, but not all questions could be answered concerning the details of plume generation process(es) and interaction with the SW.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in the Brazilian Sertão

Climate models agree that semi-arid regions around the world are likely to experience increased rainfall variability and longer droughts in the coming decades. In regions dependent on agriculture, such changes threaten to aggravate existing food insecurity and economic underdevelopment, and to push migration to urban areas. In the Brazilian semi-arid region, the Sertão, farmers’ vulnerability to climate—past, present, and future—stems from several factors, including low yielding production practices and reliance on scarce and seasonally variable water resources. Using interpolated local climate data, we show that, since 1962, in the Bacia do Jacuípe—one of the poorest regions in the Sertão of Bahía state—average temperatures have increased?~?2 °C and rainfall has decreased?~?350 mm. Over the same time period, average milk productivity—the main rural economic activity in the county—has fallen while in Brazil and in Bahía as a whole milk productivity has increased dramatically. This paper teases apart the drivers of climate vulnerability of the Bacia do Jacuípe in relation to the rest of Bahía. We then present the results of a suite of pilot projects by Adapta Sertão, a coalition of organizations working to improve the adaptive capacity of farmers living in the semi-arid region. By testing a number of different technologies and arrangements at the farm level, Adapta Sertão has shown that interventions focused on balanced animal diets and efficient irrigation systems can help reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of production systems from climate. They are thus viable adaptation strategies that should be tested at a larger scale, with implications for semi-arid regions worldwide.     

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.     

Bias corrections of global models for regional climate simulations of high-impact weather

All global circulation models (GCMs) suffer from some form of bias, which when used as boundary conditions for regional climate models may impact the simulations, perhaps severely. Here we present a bias correction method that corrects the mean error in the GCM, but retains the six-hourly weather, longer-period climate-variability and climate change from the GCM. We utilize six different bias correction experiments; each correcting different bias components. The impact of the full bias correction and the individual components are examined in relation to tropical cyclones, precipitation and temperature. We show that correcting of all boundary data provides the greatest improvement.     

Analytical wavefront curvature correction to plane‐wave reflection coefficients for a weak‐contrast interface

Most amplitude versus offset (AVO) analysis and inversion techniques are based on the Zoeppritz equations for plane‐wave reflection coefficients or their approximations. Real seismic surveys use localized sources that produce spherical waves, rather than plane waves. In the far‐field, the AVO response for a spherical wave reflected from a plane interface can be well approximated by a plane‐wave response. However this approximation breaks down in the vicinity of the critical angle. Conventional AVO analysis ignores this problem and always utilizes the plane‐wave response. This approach is sufficiently accurate as long as the angles of incidence are much smaller than the critical angle. Such moderate angles are more than sufficient for the standard estimation of the AVO intercept and gradient. However, when independent estimation of the formation density is required, it may be important to use large incidence angles close to the critical angle, where spherical wave effects become important. For the amplitude of a spherical wave reflected from a plane fluid‐fluid interface, an analytical approximation is known, which provides a correction to the plane‐wave reflection coefficients for all angles. For the amplitude of a spherical wave reflected from a solid/solid interface, we propose a formula that combines this analytical approximation with the linearized plane‐wave AVO equation. The proposed approximation shows reasonable agreement with numerical simulations for a range of frequencies. Using this solution, we constructed a two‐layer three‐parameter least‐squares inversion algorithm. Application of this algorithm to synthetic data for a single plane interface shows an improvement compared to the use of plane‐wave reflection coefficients.     

Twin Tsunamis Triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake

On 12 January 2010, a magnitude M _w 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west–southwest of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 fatalities, thereby exceeding any previous loss of life from a similar size earthquake. In addition, tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least three fatalities at Petit Paradis due to a complete lack of tsunami awareness. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) was deployed within weeks of the event and covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s southern coastline. The collected survey data include more than 21 tsunami heights along with observations of coastal land level change. Maximum tsunami heights of 3 m have been measured for two independently triggered tsunamis.     

Biotic controls on shallow translational landslides

In undisturbed tropical montane rainforests massive organic layers accommodate the majority of roots and only a small fraction of roots penetrate the mineral soil. We investigated the contribution of vegetation to slope stability in such environments by modifying a standard model for slope stability to include an organic layer with distinct mechanical properties. The importance of individual model parameters was evaluated using detailed measurements of soil and vegetation properties to reproduce the observed depth of 11 shallow landslides in the Andes of southern Ecuador. By distinguishing mineral soil, organic layer and above‐ground biomass, it is shown that in this environment vegetation provides a destabilizing effect mainly due to its contribution to the mass of the organic layer (up to 973 t ha^{? 1} under wet conditions). Sensitivity analysis shows that the destabilizing effect of the mass of soil and vegetation can only be effective on slopes steeper than 37.9°. This situation applies to 36% of the study area. Thus, on the steep slopes of this megadiverse ecosystem, the mass of the growing forest promotes landsliding, which in turn promotes a new cycle of succession. This feedback mechanism is worth consideration in further investigations of the impact of landslides on plant diversity in similar environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.