Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis

This paper uses the OECD’s global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENVLinkages to examine the mid-term economic consequences and the optimal energy supply mix adjustments of a simultaneous implementation of i) a progressive fossil fuel subsidy reform in emerging and developing economies and ii) a progressive phase out of nuclear energy, mostly affecting OECD countries, China and Russia. The analysis is then transposed in the context of climate change mitigation to depict the corresponding implications for CO2 emissions, to assess the interactions between the two energy policies, and to derive how the associated costs are affected by the different policies. The phase-out scenario projects a nuclear capacity halved by 2035 as compared to the Baseline, corresponding to $120 billion losses in value-added of the nuclear industry for that year. The nuclear phase-out leaves GDP and real household consumption marginally affected in energy importing countries. A multilateral subsidy reform is more likely to affect international fossil fuel prices and alter patterns of global energy use. The fossil fuel subsidy reform, when implemented together with nuclear phase-out, more than offsets negative consequences on household consumption but still leads to a decrease in global CO2 emissions. The combined policies help save the equivalent of current energy consumption in the Middle East. Combining a climate policy, an effective fossil fuel subsidy reform, even with a lower nuclear share in the power mix, brings about multiple benefits to OECD countries which reduce their energy bill and achieve large climate change mitigation at lower cost.     

Changes in sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in two Northern Patagonian lake systems associated with the occurrence of historical fires

Patagonia is commonly seen as an exceptionally pristine area because of its wildlife and practically unpolluted waters. However, during the twentieth century the burning of natural forests was one of the most important human activities in Northern Chilean Patagonia. Some estimations indicate that three million hectares were burned during the first three decades of the century. Hence the objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of the historical fires in Lake Burgos (45º42′S) and Lake Thompson (45º38′S) in Chilean Patagonia. The impact was measured by evaluating chironomid assemblage since they are sensitive enough to be used as an indicator of aquatic ecosystem health. Fires have a direct and drastic effect on a lake watershed but also indirectly affect a lake ecosystem, changing sedimentation patterns or increasing nutrient inputs. In the studied lakes the periods with higher prevalence of fires were identified by charcoal analysis, while organic matter and magnetic susceptibility allowed the confirmation of pre-fire and post-fire periods. The chironomid composition was evaluated through a PCA and an analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) to test the significance among periods while a Detrended Correspondence Analysis was applied to the chironomid assemblage downcore to assess compositional structure and taxa turnover. In Lake Burgos the ANOSIM test indicated significant differences between the pre-fire and fire periods (p < 0.05), while in Lake Thompson differences were not significant. However, in Lake Thompson the PCA clearly separated the pre-fire from the fire period but not the fire from the post-fire periods. In both lakes chironomid composition changed in relation to the period of higher prevalence of fires, which in turn implies catchment changes, pollution, and other anthropogenic impacts. Particularly a marked change in mesotrophic/eutrophic taxa was detected, reflecting an increase in nutrient input due to deforestation. Our findings point out that the lacustrine ecosystems are still affected by the impact of fires and the subsequent increase in nutrient supply that occurred almost 50 years ago. No sign of reverting to pre-disturbance conditions was observed, which makes these lakes highly sensitive to current human-induced impacts.     

Influence of the Earth on the background and the sensitivity of the GRM and ECLAIRs instruments aboard the Chinese-French mission SVOM

SVOM (Space-based multi-band astronomical Variable Object Monitor) is a future Chinese-French satellite mission which is dedicated to Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) studies. Its anti-solar pointing strategy makes the Earth cross the field of view of its payload every orbit. In this paper, we present the variations of the gamma-ray background of the two high energy instruments aboard SVOM, the Gamma-Ray Monitor (GRM) and ECLAIRs, as a function of the Earth position. We conclude with an estimate of the Earth influence on their sensitivity and their GRB detection capability.     

A Mw 6.3 earthquake scenario in the city of Nice (southeast France): ground motion simulations

The southern Alps–Ligurian basin junction is one of the most seismically active zone of the western Europe. A constant microseismicity and moderate size events (3.5 < M < 5) are regularly recorded. The last reported historical event took place in February 1887 and reached an estimated magnitude between 6 and 6.5, causing human losses and extensive damages (intensity X, Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik). Such an event, occurring nowadays, could have critical consequences given the high density of population living on the French and Italian Riviera. We study the case of an offshore Mw 6.3 earthquake located at the place where two moderate size events (Mw 4.5) occurred recently and where a morphotectonic feature has been detected by a bathymetric survey. We used a stochastic empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) summation method to produce a population of realistic accelerograms on rock and soil sites in the city of Nice. The ground motion simulations are calibrated on a rock site with a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in order to estimate a reasonable stress-drop ratio between the February 25th, 2001, Mw 4.5, event taken as an EGF and the target earthquake. Our results show that the combination of the GMPEs and EGF techniques is an interesting tool for site-specific strong ground motion estimation.     

The leeway of shipping containers at different immersion levels

The leeway of 20-ft containers in typical distress conditions is established through field experiments in a Norwegian fjord and in open-ocean conditions off the coast of France with a wind speed ranging from calm to 14 m s⁻¹. The experimental setup is described in detail, and certain recommendations were given for experiments on objects of this size. The results are compared with the leeway of a scaled-down container before the full set of measured leeway characteristics are compared with a semianalytical model of immersed containers. Our results are broadly consistent with the semianalytical model, but the model is found to be sensitive to choice of drag coefficient and makes no estimate of the crosswind leeway of containers. We extend the results from the semianalytical immersion model by extrapolating the observed leeway divergence and estimates of the experimental uncertainty to various realistic immersion levels. The sensitivity of these leeway estimates at different immersion levels are tested using a stochastic trajectory model. Search areas are found to be sensitive to the exact immersion levels, the choice of drag coefficient, and somewhat less sensitive to the inclusion of leeway divergence. We further compare the search areas, thus, found with a range of trajectories estimated using the semianalytical model with only perturbations to the immersion level. We find that the search areas calculated without estimates of crosswind leeway and its uncertainty will grossly underestimate the rate of expansion of the search areas. We recommend that stochastic trajectory models of container drift should account for these uncertainties by generating search areas for different immersion levels and with the uncertainties in crosswind and downwind leeway reported from our field experiments.     

Sea Surface Salinity Observations from Space with the SMOS Satellite: A New Means to Monitor the Marine Branch of the Water Cycle

While it is well known that the ocean is one of the most important component of the climate system, with a heat capacity 1,100 times greater than the atmosphere, the ocean is also the primary reservoir for freshwater transport to the atmosphere and largest component of the global water cycle. Two new satellite sensors, the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the NASA Aquarius SAC-D missions, are now providing the first space-borne measurements of the sea surface salinity (SSS). In this paper, we present examples demonstrating how SMOS-derived SSS data are being used to better characterize key land–ocean and atmosphere–ocean interaction processes that occur within the marine hydrological cycle. In particular, SMOS with its ocean mapping capability provides observations across the world’s largest tropical ocean fresh pool regions, and we discuss from intraseasonal to interannual precipitation impacts as well as large-scale river runoff from the Amazon–Orinoco and Congo rivers and its offshore advection. Synergistic multi-satellite analyses of these new surface salinity data sets combined with sea surface temperature, dynamical height and currents from altimetry, surface wind, ocean color, rainfall estimates, and in situ observations are shown to yield new freshwater budget insight. Finally, SSS observations from the SMOS and Aquarius/SAC-D sensors are combined to examine the response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone passage including the potential role that a freshwater-induced upper ocean barrier layer may play in modulating surface cooling and enthalpy flux in tropical cyclone track regions.     

A Case Study of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, CO and Particles Content Evolution in the Suburban Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using a 2-μm Doppler DIAL,a 1-μm Backscatter Lidar and an Array of In-situ Sensors

A network of remote and in-situ sensors was deployed in a Paris suburb in order to evaluate the mesoscale evolution of the daily cycle of CO₂ and related tracers in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and its relation to ABL dynamics and nearby natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks. A 2-μm heterodyne Doppler differential absorption lidar, which combines measurements of, (1) structure of the atmosphere, (2) radial velocity, and (3) CO₂ differential absorption was a particularly unique element of the observational array. We analyse the differences in the diurnal cycle of CO, CO₂, lidar reflectivity (a proxy for aerosol content) and H₂O using the lidar, airborne measurements in the free troposphere and ground-based measurements made at two sites located few kilometres apart. We demonstrate that vertical mixing dominates the early morning drawdown of CO and aerosol content trapped in the former nocturnal layer but not the H₂O and CO₂ mixing ratio variations. Surface fluxes, vertical mixing and advection all contribute to the ABL CO₂ mixing ratio decrease during the morning transition, with the relative importance depending on the rate and timing of ABL rise. We also show evidence that when the ABL is stable, small-scale (0.1-km vertical and 1-km horizontal) gradients of CO₂ and CO are large. The results illustrate the complexity of inferring surface fluxes of CO₂ from atmospheric budgets in the stable boundary layer.     

Rainfall chemistry: long range transport versus below cloud scavenging. A two-year study at an inland station (Opme, France)

The present study investigates the chemical composition of wet atmospheric precipitation samples on a daily and an intra-event timescales in Opme, an experimental meteorological station located near Clermont-Ferrand, France. The samples have been collected from November 2005 to October 2007. A total of 217 rainwater samples, integrated for 24 h, were collected and analyzed for pH, conductivity, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, NH₄⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, NO₃⁻ , SO₄²⁻ , PO₄³⁻ and HCO₃⁻. The composition of the rainwater collected appeared to be controlled by the following potential sources: neutralisation process (association among calcium, ammonium with nitrate and sulphate), marine and terrestrial sources. In order to determine the role of long-range transport, the integrated events were classified according to four origins of air-masses: (1) West, (2) North and East, (3) South including Iberian and Italian Peninsulae and (4) local. This analysis allows identifying the source areas of the different association of elements defined. Although calcium is always dominant, total content of rainfall is variable and neutralisation process can be more or less efficient and specific. Rainout (long-range transport) and washout (below-cloud scavenging) were investigated through intra-event measurements of chemical species. Four rain-events have been selected according to the four classes of origins of air-masses. It appears that the first fractions are responsible for an important part of the chemical content of the whole event. Terrestrial species, locally emitted, induce the neutralisation process of acid species. Local meteorological conditions, such as wind’s speed and direction, play an important role as they could provoke recharges of the below cloud air column during the event.     

Global warming of the mantle beneath continents back to the Archaean

Throughout its history, the Earth has experienced global magmatic events that correlate with the formation of supercontinents. This suggests that the distribution of continents at the Earth's surface is fundamental in regulating mantle temperature. Nevertheless, most large igneous provinces (LIPs) are explained in terms of the interaction of a hot plume with the lithosphere, even though some do not show evidence for such a mechanism. The aggregation of continents impacts on the temperature and flow of the underlying mantle through thermal insulation and enlargement of the convection wavelength. Both processes tend to increase the temperature below the continental lithosphere, eventually triggering melting events without the involvement of hot plumes. This model, called mantle global warming, has been tested using 3D numerical simulations of mantle convection [Coltice, N., Phillips, B.R., Bertrand, H., Ricard, Y., Rey, P. (2007) Global warming of the mantle at the origin of flood basalts over supercontinents. Geology 35, 391–394.]. Here, we apply this model to several continental flood basalts (CFBs) ranging in age from the Mesozoic to the Archaean. Our numerical simulations show that the mantle global warming model could account for the peculiarities of magmatic provinces that developed during the formation of Pangea and Rodinia, as well as putative Archaean supercontinents such as Kenorland and Zimvaalbara.     

Origin of Salts and Brine Evolution of Bolivian and Chilean Salars

Central Andes in Bolivia and northern Chile contain numerous internal drainage basins occupied by saline lakes and salt crusts (salars). Salts in inflow waters stem from two origins: alteration of volcanic rocks, which produces dilute waters, and brine recycling, which leads to brackish waters. Chilean alteration waters are three times more concentrated in average than Bolivian waters, which is related to a higher sulfur content in Chilean volcanoes. Brackish inflows stem from brines which leak out from present salars and mix with dilute groundwater. Most of the incoming salts are recycled salts. The cycling process is likely to have begun when ancient salars were buried by volcanic eruptions. Three major brine groups are found in Andean salars: alkaline, sulfate-rich, and calcium-rich brines. Evaporation modeling of inflows shows good agreement between predicted and observed brines in Chile. Alkaline salars are completely lacking in Chile, which is accounted for by higher sulfate and lower alkalinity of inflow waters, in turn related to the suspected higher sulfur content in Chilean volcanic rocks. Six Bolivian salars are alkaline, a lower number than that predicted by evaporative modeling. Deposition on the drainage basin of eolian sulfur eroded from native deposits shifts the initial alkaline evolution to sulfate brines. The occurrence of calcium-rich brines in Andean salars is not compatible with volcanic drainage basins, which can only produce alkaline or sulfate-rich weathering waters. The discrepancy is likely due to recycled calcic brines from ancient salars in sedimentary basins, now buried below volcanic formations. Calcic salars are not in equilibrium with their volcanic environment and may slowly change with time to sulfate-rich salars.