Public response to earthquake disaster: a case study in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture

By considering an area affected by a Ms 7.1 earthquake in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, in 2010 as an example, this paper analyzed the public response level after an earthquake disaster and discussed the principal factors influencing public response behaviors using a questionnaire survey. The results showed that the local public’s response level is low in the studied area. The average response scoring rate is only 0.50. Gender, family income, experience and religion are the most significant factors influencing the public response level. Females or individuals with low family income and little education tend to have lower response capability and are more vulnerable during an earthquake disaster. Furthermore, on the whole, participants who had experience coping with unexpected safety events appear to adopt more reasonable response behavior during an earthquake disaster. The relatively undeveloped economy and low education level are the basic limiting factors for improving the public response capability in the studied area. Certain policies and suggestions to improve the response capability and disaster reduction were discussed.     

中国碳排放对国际贸易影响的经验分析(英文)

International trade is an important impact factor to the carbon emissions of a country.As the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade since its entry into the WTO in 2002,the effects of international trade on carbon emissions of China are more and more significant.Using the recent available input-output tables of China and energy consumption data,this study estimated the effects of Chinese foreign trade on carbon emissions and the changes of the effects by analyzing the emissions embodied in trade between 2002 and 2007.The re-sults showed a more and more significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese international trade.From 2002 to 2007,the proportion of net exported emissions and domestic exported emissions in domestic emissions increased from 18.32% to 29.79% and from 23.97% to 34.76%,respectively.In addition,about 22.10% and 32.29% of the total imported emissions were generated in processing trade in 2002 and 2007,respectively,which were imported and later exported emissions.Although,most of the sectors showed a growth trend in imported and exported emissions,sectors of electrical machinery and communication electronic equipment,chemical industry,and textile were still the biggest emission exporters,the net exported emissions of which were also the largest.For China and other developing countries,technology improvement may be the most favorable and acceptable ways to re-duce carbon emissions at present stage.In the future negotiations on emissions reduction,it would be more fair and reasonable to include the carbon emissions embodied in international trade when accounting the total emissions of an economy.     

北京市民众地震灾害认知特点的初步分析

借助问卷调查的方法,对北京市民众的地震灾害认知水平进行了初步调查分析。结果表明,目前北京民众对于地震灾害知识的掌握水平非常有限,部分民众辨识地震谣言的能力不足; 在防震减灾技能方面,民众的掌握程度相对较好,基本上都能够正确认识和掌握紧急避震的注意事项及震后的救人技巧等; 北京民众整体的防震减灾意识较强,都希望多了解掌握一些防震减灾知识和技能,且绝大部分民众都能认识到邻里、社区或单位的自救互救在应急救灾方面的重要性。北京民众对地震灾害知识的认知水平具有群体差异性,男性整体认知水平要稍好于女性; 受教育程度、年龄均对民众的认知水平有着显著的正影响。除继续加强传统传媒渠道对防震减灾知识和技能的宣传外,加强学校正规教育中的灾害教育渗透和通过互联网及手机等现代通信方式进行宣传教育也应得到进一步的重视。     

中等跨径斜拉桥塔梁弹性约束装置的减震效应研究

对于高烈度设防区的中等跨径斜拉桥,往往采用漂浮或半漂浮体系结构,为防止梁端位移过大,需在桥塔和主梁之间设置合理的弹性索约束。为了得到合理的弹性索刚度值,以一座中等跨径混凝土斜拉桥为例,首先推导了塔、梁之间弹性约束刚度值的估算公式,并建立桥梁的动力分析模型,利用反应谱方法分析了弹性约束装置刚度参数变化对桥梁动力特性、索塔内力和塔顶、梁端位移的影响规律,通过参数分析得到了与公式计算值相吻合的最优解。分析结果表明:本文的弹性索刚度估算公式可以较准确估算弹性索的刚度初始值;弹性索能有效地控制漂浮、半漂浮体系斜拉桥过大的梁端位移,并改善斜拉桥索塔的受力状况。     

基于高分辨率遥感的建筑群在地震灾害中的脆弱性和风险分析方法及其应用

近年来高分辨率遥感技术快速发展,其在灾害研究领域的应用也越来越广。将遥感技术用于建筑群在地震灾害中的脆弱性和损失风险分析,不仅能保证建筑物类型和数量调查更新的时效性,而且有利于进行不同时期损失风险的对比分析,以便揭示震灾损失风险的变化规律。通过分析高分辨率建筑群的遥感影像特征,设计了一套提取建筑物属性信息(高度和面积)的方法,并通过实地调查验证了其可行性;将提取的建筑群属性信息与传统的震灾风险分析模型相结合,即可实现对研究区建筑群在地震灾害中的脆弱性和损失风险分析。以唐山市区和9个乡镇2009年的建筑物为研究对象,提取了它们的属性信息,在设定地震烈度情景下,分析了这些建筑物在地震灾害中的脆弱性和损失风险。     

基于L曲线法的抗差岭估计模型

介绍了基于L曲线法的抗差岭估计模型及其在抵御系数阵病态和观测粗差影响中的作用,给出了抗差岭估计模型的推导公式及L曲线法确定岭参数的基本原理。最后结合实际算例作出五种方案的计算比较,结果表明：基于L曲线法的抗差岭估计模型能够有效地改善和抵御系数阵病态和粗差观测值带来的影响。     

基于避难场所容量限制的地震应急疏散路径分析

针对地震灾害应急疏散策略,构建了一种基于避难场所容量限制的灾民应急疏散分配与路径选择算法模型。该模型综合考虑了避难场所的容量受限性和人口分布的不均匀性,在兼顾避难场所容量限制的同时,使灾民的总疏散距离成本最小化。以北京市东西城为例,对给定情景下的灾民应急疏散路径进行了实证研究。研究发现,在考虑避难容量限制的情形下,无论是地震初期,还是地震中后期,研究区域内现有应急避难场所的容量都不足以满足区域居民的避难需求。基于实际道路疏散成本和避难容量限制的灾区应急疏散路径评估模型,不仅能够给出各疏散需求点最佳的疏散目的地和具体路径,还能给出避难容量限制下各需求点疏散到不同目的地的人数,以及无法满足避难需求的居民数量。