System dynamics approach for simulating water resources of an urban water system with emphasis on sustainability of groundwater

Water resources management is an important driver in social and economic development. Water shortage is one of the most critical issues threatening human welfare, public health, and ecosystems. This issue has turned into a major challenge in many river basins all around the world due to the imbalance in water supply and demand. Use of simulation models can be effective tools in providing water managers with scientifically supported decisions in dealing with complex and uncertain water resource systems. System dynamics approach serves as a management tool and may play an important role in understanding the cause–effect in water resources systems. In the present study, system dynamics approach was applied to simulate management strategies dealing with Tehran metropolitan water resources systems. In the developed model, the trend of water storage in the next 30-year period and the effectiveness of water supply strategies were simulated. The results showed that, despite the growing shortage of the water resources, optimal use of existing resources under appropriate strategies could reduce water deficit within the next 30 years.     

Monthly stream flow forecasting via dynamic spatio-temporal models

In this research, a dynamic linear spatio-temporal model (DLSTM) was developed and evaluated for monthly streamflow forecasting. For parameter estimation, coupled expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm and Kalman filter was adopted. This combination enables the model to estimate the state vector and parameters concurrently. Different forecast scenarios including various combinations of upstream stations were considered for downstream station streamflow forecasting. Several statistical criteria, nonparametric and visual tests were used for model evaluation. Results indicated that the spatio-temporal model performed acceptably in almost all scenarios. The dynamic model was able to capitalize on coupled spatial and temporal information provided that there is spatial connectivity in the studied hydrometric stations network. Moreover, threshold level method was used for model evaluation in drought and wet periods. Results indicated that, in validation phase, the model was able to forecast the drought duration and volume deficit/over threshold, although volume deficit/over threshold could not be accurately simulated.     

The discovery of a giant debris arc in the Coma cluster

We present the discovery of a giant low-surface-brightness arc, of length ∼80 kpc, in the Coma cluster. The arc consists of a diffuse luminous matrix with surface brightness μ_B<26.5 mag arcsec⁻² and a number of embedded condensations. It is not associated with any giant galaxy in Coma in particular; neither does it have the properties of a gravitational arc. We argue that a fast interaction between the nearby barred S0 galaxy IC 4026 and either IC 4041 or RB 110 is the most natural explanation for the origin of the arc.     

Skill Assessment of Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts over Iran

Medium to long-term precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in water resource management and development of warning systems.Recently,the Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)database has been releasing monthly forecasts for lead times of up to three months for public use.This study evaluated the ensemble forecasts of three C3S models over the period 1993-2017 in Iran’s eight classified precipitation clusters for one-to three-month lead times.Probabilistic and non-probabilistic criteria were used for evaluation.Furthermore,the skill of selected models was analyzed in dry and wet periods in different precipitation clusters.The results indicated that the models performed best in western precipitation clusters,while in the northern humid cluster the models had negative skill scores.All models were better at forecasting upper-tercile events in dry seasons and lower-tercile events in wet seasons.Moreover,with increasing lead time,the forecast skill of the models worsened.In terms of forecasting in dry and wet years,the forecasts of the models were generally close to observations,albeit they underestimated several severe dry periods and overestimated a few wet periods.Moreover,the multi-model forecasts generated via multivariate regression of the forecasts of the three models yielded better results compared with those of individual models.In general,the ECMWF and UKMO models were found to be appropriate for one-month-ahead precipitation forecasting in most clusters of Iran.For the clusters considered in Iran and for the long-range system versions considered,the Météo France model had lower skill than the other models.     

Application of the WEPP model to determine sources of run‐off and sediment in a forested watershed

This study investigates critical run‐off and sediment production sources in a forested Kasilian watershed located in northern Iran. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model was set up to simulate the run‐off and sediment yields. WEPP was calibrated and validated against measured rainfall–run‐off–sediment data. Results showed that simulated run‐off and sediment yields of the watershed were in agreement with the measured data for the calibration and validation periods. While low and medium values of run‐off and sediment yields were adequately simulated by the WEPP model, high run‐off and sediment yield values were underestimated. Performance of the model was evaluated as very good and satisfactory during the calibration and validation stages, respectively. Total soil erosion and sediment load of the study watershed during the study period were determined to be 10 108 t yr^?1 and 8735 t yr^?1, respectively. The northern areas of the watershed with dry farming were identified as the critical erosion prone zones. To prioritize the subwatersheds based on their contribution to the run‐off and sediment production at the watershed's main outlet, unit response approach (URA) was applied. In this regard, subwatersheds close to the main outlet were found to have the highest contribution to sediment yield of the whole watershed. Results indicated that depending on the objective of land and water conservation practices, particularly, for controlling sediment yield at the main outlet, critical areas for implementing the best management practices may be identified through conjunctive application of WEPP and URA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recognition of shallow karst water resources and cave potentials using thermal infrared image and terrain characteristics in semi-arid regions of Iran

Shallow karst water resources and caves may influence land surface temperatures due to cold transfer property of rocks and evaporation from buried karst. The objective of this research was to develop a method for recognition of karst areas based on evaluating the surface characteristics that manifest itself by low land surface temperature in the satellite images. Investigation of thermal ETM⁺ image of the study region in Iran showed that parts of carbonate rocks that bear karst water are relatively cooler compared to areas with similar terrain conditions. Relational modeling provided useful information on spatial distribution of areas that have the potential to hold karst water resources and/or caves. Further inspection of ASTER images, along with geotechnical, geophysical and geological field surveys verified the approach. Significant correlation was found between electrical resistivity and thermal band values. The method may be used as a primary exploratory tool for shallow karst water explorations in similar areas.     

Application of Fuzzy Set Theory to Rock Engineering Classification Systems: An Illustration of the Rock Mass Excavability Index

The characterization of rock masses is one of the integral aspects of rock engineering. Over the years, many classification systems have been developed for characterization and design purposes in mining and civil engineering practices. However, the strength and weak points of such rating-based classifications have always been questionable. Such classification systems assign quantifiable values to predefined classified geotechnical parameters of rock mass. This results in subjective uncertainties, leading to the misuse of such classifications in practical applications. Fuzzy set theory is an effective tool to overcome such uncertainties by using membership functions and an inference system. This study illustrates the potential application of fuzzy set theory in assisting engineers in the rock engineering decision processes for which subjectivity plays an important role. So, the basic principles of fuzzy set theory are described and then it was applied to rock mass excavability (RME) classification to verify the applicability of fuzzy rock engineering classifications. It was concluded that fuzzy set theory has an acceptable reliability to be employed for all rock engineering classification systems.     

Iso-flood severity mapping: a new tool for distributed flood source identification

Flood hazard increasingly threatens human communities that occupy floodplains. Economic planning of control measures relies on identification and prioritization of the flood source areas in the watershed draining to the threatened reach. Distribution of flood control activities in proportion to the priority of flood source areas can reduce excessive costs and increase flood control efficiency. In this research, a distributed Clark-based rainfall-runoff model in conjunction with a hydrologic routing model was calibrated and validated in the watershed of interest. Then, a 2 * 2 km² discretization scheme was implemented to represent some 200 pixels for flood source identification. The unit flood response (UFR) approach was then carried out at pixel scale. This step resulted in, for the first time, a distributed flood index map, which identifies and ranks pixels with high impact on the flood regime of the flood-threatened reach. The iso-flood severity map can be also extracted in a contour format.