Rupture progression along discontinuous oblique fault sets: implications for the Karadere rupture segment of the 1999 Izmit earthquake, and future rupture in the Sea of Marmara

Large earthquakes in strike-slip regimes commonly rupture fault segments that are oblique to each other in both strike and dip. This was the case during the 1999 Izmit earthquake, which mainly ruptured E–W-striking right-lateral faults but also ruptured the N60°E-striking Karadere fault at the eastern end of the main rupture. It will also likely be so for any future large fault rupture in the adjacent Sea of Marmara. Our aim here is to characterize the effects of regional stress direction, stress triggering due to rupture, and mechanical slip interaction on the composite rupture process. We examine the failure tendency and slip mechanism on secondary faults that are oblique in strike and dip to a vertical strike-slip fault or “master” fault. For a regional stress field well-oriented for slip on a vertical right-lateral strike-slip fault, we determine that oblique normal faulting is most favored on dipping faults with two different strikes, both of which are oriented clockwise from the strike-slip fault. The orientation closer in strike to the master fault is predicted to slip with right-lateral oblique normal slip, the other one with left-lateral oblique normal slip. The most favored secondary fault orientations depend on the effective coefficient of friction on the faults and the ratio of the vertical stress to the maximum horizontal stress. If the regional stress instead causes left-lateral slip on the vertical master fault, the most favored secondary faults would be oriented counterclockwise from the master fault. For secondary faults striking ±30° oblique to the master fault, right-lateral slip on the master fault brings both these secondary fault orientations closer to the Coulomb condition for shear failure with oblique right-lateral slip. For a secondary fault striking 30° counterclockwise, the predicted stress change and the component of reverse slip both increase for shallower-angle dips of the secondary fault. For a secondary fault striking 30° clockwise, the predicted stress change decreases but the predicted component of normal slip increases for shallower-angle dips of the secondary fault. When both the vertical master fault and the dipping secondary fault are allowed to slip, mechanical interaction produces sharp gradients or discontinuities in slip across their intersection lines. This can effectively constrain rupture to limited portions of larger faults, depending on the locations of fault intersections. Across the fault intersection line, predicted rakes can vary by >40° and the sense of lateral slip can reverse. Application of these results provides a potential explanation for why only a limited portion of the Karadere fault ruptured during the Izmit earthquake. Our results also suggest that the geometries of fault intersection within the Sea of Marmara favor composite rupture of multiple oblique fault segments.     

Modelling cyclic elastic behaviour of sands

The cyclic stress-strain behaviour of cohesionless soils is considered to be composed of elastic and inelastic components, and the cyclic elastic stress-strain relationships for one type of uniform sand are investigated by conducting isotropic and laterally constrained compression tests under low frequency cyclic loads. The effects of relative density, stress history, and stress state on the cyclic elastic behaviour are studied. Simple and practically applicable elastic stress-strain models are developed based on Hertzian contact theory. It was observed in both types of tests that elastic strains can accurately be modelled by a power function of stresses.     

Failure modes of the lineaments on Jupiter's moon, Europa: Implications for the evolution of its icy crust

Lineaments referred to as ridges, troughs, bands, and faults on the icy surface of Jupiter's moon, Europa, have long been interpreted as extensional structures due to brittle fracturing of ice and intrusion of mobile materials from the interior of the satellite. Based on detailed mapping and possibly analogous structures present on Earth, we propose that the kinematics and failure mechanisms of these structures are variable and more complex than previously thought. A dense network of structures of multiple generations, forming the background on the surface of the planet, is here interpreted as localized zones of volumetric strain, likely compaction and/or dilation bands. The next class of linear failure structures is shear bands with significant offset of pre-existing markers. A few additional phases of less pervasive but more prominent volumetric deformation bands overprint the shear zones and background network. The mode of younger features can be characterized as sharp, dilational, brittle fracturing and subsequent shearing, thereby producing comminution and fragmentation in various sizes, leading to a series of younger faults with detectable lateral, as well as vertical, offset. This rich variability in the nature of the distribution, localization, kinematics, and formation mechanisms, if true, suggests that the conditions prevailing within the crust of Europa must have changed dramatically over time. The implication of this conclusion is that structures interpreted to be compaction/dilation bands and shear bands on Europa are composed of deformed materials similar to the surrounding ice, whereas only the younger faults, developed by brittle fracturing and fragmentation, may be conduits for mobile substrate to reach the surface and thus offer the highest potential for recovering evidence for life in the satellite.     

The effect of spatially varying earthquake ground motions on the stochastic response of bridges isolated with friction pendulum systems

In this paper, a comprehensive investigation of the effect of spatially varying earthquake ground motions on the stochastic response of bridges isolated with friction pendulum systems is performed. The spatially varying earthquake ground motions are considered with incoherence, wave-passage and site-response effects. The importance of the site-response effect, which arises from the difference in the local soil conditions at different support points of the isolated bridge, is investigated particularly. Mean of maximum and variance response values obtained from the spatially varying earthquake ground motions are compared with those of the specialised cases of the ground motion model. It is shown that site-response component of the spatially varying earthquake ground motion model has important effects on the stochastic response of the isolated bridges. Therefore, to be more realistic in calculating the isolated bridge responses, the spatially varying earthquake ground motions should be incorporated in the analysis.     

First-level liquefaction hazard mapping of Laoag City,Northern Philippines

During the 1990 Luzon earthquake (M_s 7.8), the central part of Luzon Island, Philippines suffered much from liquefaction-related processes. Examination of inventories shows that the affected areas lie on certain geological environments that are characteristically vulnerable to liquefaction. Based on this local experience and the findings of earlier workers correlating geological setting with liquefaction susceptibility, a first-level map of liquefaction hazard for Laoag City, Northern Philippines, was produced. Distinct micro-geomorphological units were identified within the mainly fluvio-deltaic setting of the study area. The liquefaction susceptibility of each unit was then ranked as high, moderate, low or non-liquefiable, taking also the geomorphological evolution of the area into account. The geomorphological model of the fluvio-deltaic basin was tested against the results of the georesistivity survey carried out in this study. Moreover, compatibility of the liquefaction susceptibility map with historical liquefaction records supported the validity of the proposed ranking. The study showed that microzonation based on geomorphological criteria is indeed very useful in less-developed countries like the Philippines, where funds for a more rigorous determination of liquefaction potential are limited and not always available.     

Regional Geothermal Characterisation of East Anatolia from Aeromagnetic,Heat Flow and Gravity Data

East Anatolia is a region of high topography made up of a 2-km high plateau and Neogene and Quaternary volcanics overlying the subduction-accretion complex formed by the process of collision. The aeromagnetic and gravity data surveyed by the Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) of Turkey have been used to interpret qualitatively the characteristics of the near-surface geology of the region. The residual aeromagnetic data were low-pass filtered and analyzed to produce the estimates of magnetic bottom using the centroid method and by forward modelling of spectra to evaluate the uncertainties in such estimates. The magnetic bottom estimates can be indicative of temperatures in the crust because magnetic minerals lose their spontaneous magnetization at the Curie temperature of the dominant magnetic minerals in the rocks and, thus, also are called Curie point depths (CPDs). The Curie point depths over the region of Eastern Anatolia vary from 12.9 to 22.6 km. Depths computed from forward modelling of spectra with 200–600 km window sizes suggest that the bottom depths from East Anatolia from the magnetic data may have errors exceeding 5 km; however, most of the obtained depths appear to lie in the above range and indicate that the lower crust is either demagnetized or non-magnetic. In the interpretation of the magnetic map, we also used reduction-to-pole (RTP) and amplitude of total gradient of high-pass filtered anomalies, which reduced dipolar orientation effects of induced aeromagnetic anomalies. However, the features of the RTP and the total gradient of the high-pass filtered aeromagnetic anomalies are not highly correlated to the hot spring water locations. On the other hand, many high-amplitude features seen on the total gradient map can be correlated with the ophiolitic rocks observed on the surface. This interpretation is supported by Bouguer gravity data. In this paper, we recommend that the sources of the widespread thermal activity seen in East Anatolia must be investigated individually by means of detailed mapping and modelling of high resolution geophysical data to assess further the geothermal potential of the region.     

Top-down modeling and bottom-up dynamics: Linking a fisheries-based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

In this paper we present results from dynamic simulations of the Northern California Current ecosystem, based on historical estimates of fishing mortality, relative fishing effort, and climate forcing. Climate can affect ecosystem productivity and dynamics both from the bottom-up (through short- and long-term variability in primary and secondary production) as well as from the top-down (through variability in the abundance and spatial distribution of key predators). We have explored how the simplistic application of climate forcing through both bottom-up and top-down mechanisms improves the fit of the model dynamics to observed population trends and reported catches for exploited components of the ecosystem. We find that using climate as either a bottom-up or a top-down forcing mechanism results in substantial improvements in model performance, such that much of the variability observed in single species models and dynamics can be replicated in a multi-species approach. Using multiple climate variables (both bottom-up and top-down) simultaneously did not provide significant improvement over a model with only one forcing. In general, results suggest that there do not appear to be strong trophic interactions among many of the longer-lived, slower-growing rockfish, roundfish and flatfish in this ecosystem, although strong interactions were observed in shrimp, salmon and small flatfish populations where high turnover and predation rates have been coupled with substantial changes in many predator populations over the last 40 years.     

Evaluation of water quality parameters for the Mamasin dam in Aksaray City in the central Anatolian part of Turkey by means of artificial neural networks

Sustaining the human ecological benefits of surface water requires carefully planned strategies for reducing the cumulative risks posed by diverse human activities. The municipality of Aksaray city plays a key role in developing solutions to surface water management and protection in the central Anatolian part of Turkey. The responsibility to provide drinking water and sewage works, regulate the use of private land and protect public health provides the mandate and authority to take action. The present approach discusses the main sources of contamination and the result of direct wastewater discharges into the Melendiz and Karasu rivers, which recharge the Mamasın dam sites by the use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling techniques. The present study illustrates the ability to predict and/or approve the output values of previously measured water quality parameters of the recharge and discharge areas at the Mamasin dam site by means of ANN techniques. Using the ANN model is appreciated in such environmental research. Here, the ANN is used for estimating if the field parameters are agreeable to the results of this model or not. The present study simulates a situation in the past by means of ANN. But in case any field measurements of some relative parameters at the outlet point “discharge area” have been missed, it could be possible to predict the approximate output values from the detailed periodical water quality parameters. Because of the high variance and the inherent non-linear relationship of the water quality parameters in time series, it is difficult to produce a reliable model with conventional modeling approaches. In this paper, the ANN modeling technique is used to establish a model for evaluating the change in electrical conductivity (EC) and dissolved oxygen (DO) values in recharge (input) and discharge (output) areas of the dam water under pollution risks. A general ANN modeling scheme is also recommended for the water parameters. The modeling process includes four main stages: (1) source data analysis, (2) system priming, (3) system fine-tuning and (4) model evaluation. Results of the ANN modeling scheme indicate that the output values are agreeable to the water quality parameters, which were measured at the field in the static water mass of the Mamasın dam lake. Water contamination at the dam site is caused by the continuous increase of nutrient contents and decrease of the O₂ level in water causing an anaerobic condition. It may stimulate algae growth flow in such water bodies, consequently reducing water quality.