Monthly prediction of rainfall over India and its homogeneous zones during monsoon season: a supervised principal component regression approach on general circulation model products

A supervised principal component regression (SPCR) technique has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products for developing a monthly scale deterministic forecast of summer monsoon rainfall (June–July–August–September) for different homogeneous zones and India as a whole. The time series of the monthly observed rainfall as the predictand variable has been used from India Meteorological Department gridded (1°?×?1°) rainfall data. Lead 0 (forecast initialized in the same month) monthly products from GCMs are used as predictors. The sources of these GCMs are International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, National Center for Environmental Prediction, and Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology. The performance of SPCR technique is judged against simple ensemble mean of GCMs (EM) and it is found that over almost all the zones the SPCR model gives better skill than EM in June, August, and September months of monsoon. The SPCR technique is able to capture the year to year observed rainfall variability in terms of sign as well as the magnitude. The independent forecasts of 2007 and 2008 are also analyzed for different monsoon months (Jun–Sep) in homogeneous zones and country. Here, 1982–2006 have been considered as development year or training period. Results of the study suggest that the SPCR model is able to catch the observational rainfall over India as a whole in June, August, and September in 2007 and June, July, and August in 2008.     

Assigning a magmatically defined tectonic environment to Chitradurga metabasalts,India, by geochemical methods

The major and trace-element patterns in a set of 45 analyses of the Precambrian Chitradurga metabasalts have been interpreted by geochemical methods to classify the magma-types and to determine the tectonic environment of eruption.During amphibolitization of the tholeiites, the order of relative chemical stability is: SiO₂ > MgO > Al₂O₃ > FeO > CaO > Na₂O > K₂O > P₂O₅. On the ACFN plot the Chitradurga amphibolites approximate the unaltered basalts in their N component, show considerable depletion in F and A, and enrichment in the C components. With respect to the Keweenawan metadomains (pumpellyite and epidote), the Chitradurga amphibolites show considerable enrichment in N and depletion in the C constituents. The calc-alkaline (mol.props.) index, SiO₂ (wt.%) and “F”MA plots have shown the differentiation of the parent olivine normative tholeiite through the transitional calc-alkalic basalts to basaltic andesites; the ferrofemic index being 67.Discriminant functional analysis of the major-element patterns has classified the magma-types into ocean-floor basalts (9 analyses) and the volcanic arc series containing low-potassium tholeiites (24 analyses), calc-alkalic basalts (6 analyses) and basaltic andesites (6 analyses). The effective discrimination of the ocean-floor basalts from low-potassium tholeiites is accomplished due to the relatively low eigenvalues in functions F₁ and F₂ for SiO₂, K₂O and high values for MgO, TiO₂ in the former as compared to the latter. The low-K tholeiites are discriminated from calc-alkalic and basaltic andesites by the gradational increase in eigenvalues for K₂O, SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ in functions F₂ and F₃. The discriminant analyses of the trace-element patterns have classified the ocean-floor basalts from low-K tholeiites on TiCr, TiZr and Ti(× 10^?2)ZrY(× 3) plots. The TiO₂K₂OP₂O₅ plot has discriminated ocean-floor basalts, low-K tholeiites and the calc-alkalic group containing the basaltic andesite members. Thus the discriminant analysis of the major and trace-element patterns have shown noteworthy consistency, thereby attesting to the high success rate of classification.The Ca-Mg rich, low SiO₂, K₂O and alumina, olivine normative characteristics, and the normative pyroxene content of 36.15–45.88% of the ocean-floor basalts compare closely with those of the oceanic magma type of the Dalma volcanic suite of the north-eastern part of the Precambrian Indian shield of Bihar. These compositional features indicate their mantle origin, amphibolite and plagioclase—pyrolite assemblage of the upper mantle and relatively low-temperature, moderate pressure and hydrous environment of pyrolite.The presence of ocean-floor basalts at Chitradurga implies the existence of an oceanic rise and their eruption through its axial rift region. The mean Ti content (0.77%) of ocean-floor basalts compares closely with that of the Dalma suite (0.76%). The low-alumina content indicates faster spreading of the ocean floor.Identification of the magma-types of volcanic arc series containing a wide range of Zr and Y is attributed to quartz-normative fractionation of the magma and its differentiation to calc-alkalic and basaltic andesite members due to incorporation of sialic material by accretion in the marginal regions of the volcanic belt.Attention is focussed on the synonymous tectonic evolutionary trends of the two typical volcanic belts of the two geographically widely separated regions of the Indian Precambrian shield; the basis being: (1) low-alumina, enriched Ca-Mg and almost identical concentrations of Ti in the ocean-floor magma type, and (2) the presence of a pronounced volcanic arc magma type in the Chitradurga area and two analyses of a volcanic arc magma type in the Dalma area.     

Salinity-induced survival strategy of Vibrio cholerae associated with copepods in Cochin backwaters

The occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in water, sediment and copepods was studied over a wide range of salinity using conventional and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques in the Cochin backwaters. V. cholerae occurred either as culturable or non-culturable form in this tropical estuary. During the pre monsoon period when high salinity prevailed (35.5psu) V. cholerae was associated with copepods only in non-culturable form, but with the onset of monsoon when lower salinity prevailed, copepod-associated-V. cholerae reverted back to culturable form. The optimum salinity range for culturability was found to be 15-20psu. This points to the fact that salinity is a major factor that which influences V. cholerae's culturability and its association with copepods in Cochin backwaters.     

Numerical Simulations of the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on a Southern Sea Breeze in South-West Western Australia

A sea-breeze event in south-west Western Australia is simulated using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) version 6.0. The model is evaluated against high resolution soundings as well as station observations and is shown to reproduce the qualitative features of the sea breeze well. Sensitivity tests are carried out to investigate the effects of historical land-cover change and changes in soil moisture on the dynamics of the sea breeze. It is found that land-cover change alone, i.e., a change from wooded grasslands to bare soil, with no change in soil moisture initialisation, does not significantly alter the overall structure of the sea breeze but results in higher surface winds due to the reduced vegetation roughness length, which leads to enhanced surface moisture advection inland. On the other hand, land-cover change in conjunction with increased soil moisture results in a considerably weaker, shallower, and less penetrative sea breeze, and delays its onset and duration. A sea-breeze scaling analysis highlights the impact of increasing soil moisture on reducing the sea-breeze volume flux scale.     

A model of the late universe with viscous Zel’ldovich fluid and decaying vacuum

Many have speculated about the presence of a stiff fluid in very early stage of the universe. Such a stiff fluid was first introduced by Zel’dovich. Recently the late acceleration of the universe was studied by taking bulk viscous stiff fluid as the dominant cosmic component, but the age predicted by such a model is less than the observed value. We consider a flat universe with viscous stiff fluid and decaying vacuum energy as the cosmic components and found that the model predicts a reasonable background evolution of the universe with de Sitter epoch as end phase of expansion. More over, the model also predicts a reasonable value for the age of the present universe. We also performed a dynamical system analysis of the model and found that the end de Sitter phase predicted by the model is stable.     

Proximal Remote Sensing of Herbicide and Drought Stress in Field Grown Colocasia and Sweet Potato Plants by Sunlight-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Imaging

Chlorophyll fluorescence is an indicator of plant photosynthetic activity and has been used to monitor the health status of vegetation. Several studies have exploited the application of red/far-red chlorophyll fluorescence ratio in detecting the impact of various types of stresses in plants. Recently, sunlight-induced chlorophyll fluorescence imaging has been used to detect and discriminate different stages of mosaic virus infection in potted cassava plants with a multi-spectral imaging system (MSIS). In this study, the MSIS is used to investigate the impact of drought and herbicide stress in field grown crop plants. Towards this control and treatment groups of colocasia and sweet potato plants were grown in laterite soil beds and the reflectance images of these crop plants were recorded up to 14-days of treatment at the Fraunhofer lines of O₂ B at 687 nm and O₂ A at 759.5 nm and the off-lines at 684 and 757.5 nm. The recorded images were analyzed using the Fraunhofer Line Discrimination technique to extract the sunlight-induced chlorophyll fluorescence component from the reflectance images of the plant leaves. As compared to the control group, the chlorophyll fluorescence image ratio (F ₆₈₇/F ₇₆₀) in the treatment groups of both the plant varieties shows an increasing trend with increase in the extent of stress. Further, the F ₆₈₇/F ₇₆₀ ratio was found to correlate with the net photosynthetic rate (Pn) and stomatal conductance (g_s) of leaves. The correlation coefficient (R ²) for the relationship of F ₆₈₇/F ₇₆₀ ratio with Pn were found to be 0.78, 0.79 and 0.78, respectively for the control, herbicide treated and drought treated colocasia plants, while these were 0.77, 0.86 and 0.88, respectively for sweet potato plants. The results presented show the potential of proximal remote sensing and the application F ₆₈₇/F ₇₆₀ fluorescence image ratio for effective monitoring of stress-induced changes in field grown plants.     

Application of Weibull model for redefined significant wave height distributions

It is well accepted that the parent distribution for individual ocean wave heights follows the Weibull model. However this model does not simulate significant wave height which is the average of the highest one-third of some ‘n’ (n- varies) wave heights in a wave record. It is now proposed to redefine significant wave height as average of the highest one-third of a constant number (n-constant, say,n = 100) of consecutive individual wave heights. The Weibull model is suggested for simulating redefined significant wave height distribution by the method of characteristic function. An empirical support of 100.00% is established by Χ²-test at 0.05 level of significance for 3 sets of data at 0900, 1200 and 1500 hrs at Valiathura, Kerala coast. Parametric relations have been derived for the redefined significant wave height parameters such as mean, maximum one-third average, extreme wave heights, return periods of an extreme wave height and the probability of realising an extreme wave height in a time less than the designated return period.     

A multi-isotope approach (O,H, C,S, B and Sr) to understand the source of water and solutes in some the thermal springs from West Coast geothermal area,India

The West Coast belt, consisting of nearly 60 thermal springs, is one of the most diversified geothermal fields in India. The present work describes the multi-isotopic (O, H, C, S, B and Sr) characterization of thermal waters carried out in the Tural-Rajwadi geothermal field, situated in southern sector of the west coast geothermal area. The aim of this study is to delineate the origin of thermal water as well as to ascertain the sources of carbon, sulphur, boron and strontium dissolved in those thermal springs. The stable isotopes (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) and tritium data indicate that these thermal springs are not recently recharged rain water rather, it contains very old component of water. Oxygen-18 shift is observed due to rock-water interaction over a long period of time. Carbon isotopic composition of DIC points out to the silicate weathering with soil CO₂ coming from C₃ type of plants whereas δ³⁴S of dissolved sulphate confirms the marine origin of sulphate. This marine signature is basically derived from paleo-seawater possibly entrapped within the flows. Boron isotopic data reveals that both the seawater and rock dissolution are the sources of boron in the thermal waters whereas high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7220–0.7512) of the thermal waters conclusively establishes that archean granitic basement is the predominant rock source of strontium, not the Deccan flood basalts. In addition, like strontium, concentrations of lithium, rubidium and caesium are also governed by the rock-water interaction. Thus, the combined use of this multi-isotope technique coupled with trace element concentrations proves to be an effective tool to establish the sources of solutes in the thermal water.     

Estimation of wave period statistics using numerical coastal wave model

We used field and model wave data to investigate that zero crossing and average wave period distribution follow Gamma distribution. Since Gamma CDF is an infinite power series, further mathematical treatment is difficult. Hence its shape parameter is approximated to the nearest integer to arrive at Erlang distribution. An expression is derived from Erlang distribution to estimate various mean wave periods and significant wave period and validated by relative root mean square (RRMS) error criteria. It is shown by mathematical logic that the significant wave period distribution follows Erlang (or Gamma) distribution and is validated. The average of one-third and one-tenth highest wave periods (T _s ) estimated from Erlang distribution are in accordance with the values computed from recorded buoy and numerical coastal wave model wave period data. The predicted T _s values from coastal wave model wave period data underestimates the values from buoy wave period data.     

Rise of the Dormant: Simulated Disturbance Improves Culturable Abundance,Diversity, and Functions of Deep-Sea Bacteria of Central Indian Ocean Basin

The abundance of baroduric bacteria from nine sediment cores (0–10 cm below sea floor) was examined for their response to simulated benthic disturbance in the Central Indian basin (CIB). While the total counts of bacteria decreased from 10⁹ to 10⁶ g^?1 dry wt sediment, the average retrievable counts (CFU-colony forming units) improved by two orders of magnitude, i.e., from 10² 10⁴ g^?1 dry wt sediment. The baroduric retrievable forms were dominated by Acinetobacter and Moraxella sp before the disturbance. After the disturbance the generic diversity was represented by Staphylococcus sp, Enterobacter sp, Micrococcus sp, Coryneforms sp, and Pseudomonas sp in addition to Acinetobacter. These observations were corroborated by changes in enzymatic activities of the retrievable bacteria, which could lead to changes in the biochemical characteristics of the sediment. Thus the simulated disturbance brought about an increase in culturable abundance, taxonomic and functional diversity of deep-sea sediment of the CIB.