Using a probability model for steady long-term estimation of modal values of long-term river runoff characteristics

A possibility of obtaining steadier long-term estimates of modal values of the long-term runoff as compared with the technique based on using the system of ordinary differential equations for initial statistical moments is demonstrated using the approximation of multidimensional probability model of river runoff formation with first-order partial differential equations.     

Cyclic and Long-Term Variation of Sunspot Magnetic Fields

Measurements from the Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) were used to study the long-term variations of sunspot field strengths from 1920 to 1958. Following a modified approach similar to that presented in Pevtsov et al. (Astrophys. J. Lett. 742, L36, 2011), we selected the sunspot with the strongest measured field strength for each observing week and computed monthly averages of these weekly maximum field strengths. The data show the solar cycle variation of the peak field strengths with an amplitude of about 500?–?700 gauss (G), but no statistically significant long-term trends. Next, we used the sunspot observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to establish a relationship between the sunspot areas and the sunspot field strengths for cycles 15?–?19. This relationship was used to create a proxy of the peak magnetic field strength based on sunspot areas from the RGO and the USAF/NOAA network for the period from 1874 to early 2012. Over this interval, the magnetic field proxy shows a clear solar cycle variation with an amplitude of 500?–?700 G and a weaker long-term trend. From 1874 to around 1920, the mean value of magnetic field proxy increases by about 300?–?350 G, and, following a broad maximum in 1920?–?1960, it decreases by about 300 G. Using the proxy for the magnetic field strength as the reference, we scaled the MWO field measurements to the measurements of the magnetic fields in Pevtsov et al. (2011) to construct a combined data set of maximum sunspot field strengths extending from 1920 to early 2012. This combined data set shows strong solar cycle variations and no significant long-term trend (the linear fit to the data yields a slope of ??0.2±0.8 G?year^?1). On the other hand, the peak sunspot field strengths observed at the minimum of the solar cycle show a gradual decline over the last three minima (corresponding to cycles 21?–?23) with a mean downward trend of ≈?15 G?year^?1.     

Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

The new fifth-generation Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was driven by ERA reanalyses for the period 1984–2008 over the African continent following the CORDEX experimental protocol. Overall the model succeeds in reproducing the main features of the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and the West African Monsoon (WAM). Biases in surface temperature and precipitation are discussed in relation with some circulation defects noted in the simulation. In the African regions near the equator, the model successfully reproduces the double peak of rainfall due to the double passage of the tropical rainbelt, although it better simulates the magnitude and timing of the second peak of precipitation. CRCM5 captures the timing of the monsoon onset for the Sahel region but underestimates the magnitude of precipitation. The simulated diurnal cycle is quite well simulated for all of the regions, but is always somewhat in advance for the timing of rainfall peak. In boreal summer the CRCM5 simulation exhibits a weak cold bias over the Sahara and the maximum temperature is located too far south, resulting in a southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low. The region of maximum ascent in the deep meridional circulation of the Hadley cell is well located in the CRCM5 simulation, but it is somewhat too narrow. The core of the African Easterly Jet is of the right strength and almost at the right height, but it is displayed slightly southward, as a consequence of the southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low and the thermal wind relationship. These biases appear to be germane to the WAM rainfall band being narrower and not moving far enough northward, resulting in a dry bias in the Sahel.     

Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada

The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.     

Disproportion among Cladocera (Crustacea) skeletal components in lake sediment taphocoenoses and significance with respect to two methods of sub-fossil enumeration

Journal of Paleolimnology - Analysis of Cladocera (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) subfossil remains in lake sediments features prominently in paleolimnological studies. It is well known, however, that...     

Sources and geodynamic environments of formation of Vendian-Early Paleozoic magmatic complexes in the Daribi range,Western Mongolia

Rock complexes composing the Daribi Range were produced in Late Vendian, Early Cambrian, and Early Paleozoic suprasubduction systems. All of the studied mafic and ultramafic magmatic mantle rocks (the post-Vendian ophiolite complex, Early Cambrian pillow basalts, and Early Paleozoic picrobasalts of the sill-dike complex) have geochemical characteristics typical of early evolutionary episodes of island arcs: low LILE concentrations, horizontal REE patterns or patterns close to those of N-MORB, and HFSE minima. The magmas were derived from depleted mantle sources of variable isotopic composition with ?_Nd(T) from +2.5 to +10. The Early Paleozoic rocks of the sill-dike complex were likely produced by a complicated interaction of melts derived from different sources. The rocks of group 1 resulted from the mixing of low-K picrite and tonalite melts. The picrite melts with ?_Nd(T) from +6 to +8 were melted out of garnet lherzolite in the mantle wedge. The tonalite melts with ?_Nd(T) = ?3 seem to have been formed by the partial melting of mafic oceanic rocks of a subducted slab or the bottom of an island arc. The trondhjemite melts of group 2 with ?_Nd(T) varying from 2.5 to 7.5 could be formed via the melting of subducted metapelites or amphibolites with low sulfide concentrations. Massifs of sodic Early Paleozoic granites also occur elsewhere in western Mongolia, Tuva, and the Altai territory. The generation of sodic silicic melts was likely a common process in supra-subduction systems in CAFB. The potassic granites (group 4) could be formed by the melting of subducted pelites or by the fractionation of mantle magmas. The genesis of the basaltic andesites (group 5) was likely related to Mesozoic-Cenozoic intraplate processes.     

Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO₂ concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO₂, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C.     

Tectonomagmatic cycles and geodynamic conditions of formation of the ore-bearing systems in the Southern Argun’ Region

The evolution of the geological structure in the Southern Argun’ Region is studied in terms of changing geodynamic conditions of the Proterozoic, Caledonian, and Variscan Tectonomagmatic Cycles, which also under Mesozoic tectonomagmatic activation led to the formation of latite igneous rocks enriched in Au, Cu–Mo, Pb–Zn–Ag, volcanic and plutonic complexes of the caldera structures with Mo–U, Pb–Zn, and fluorite ores, and rare-metal granites with a Sn–W–Li–Ta spectrum.