Catastrophic fragmentation and formation of families: Preliminary results from a new numerical model

Preliminary results of an improved version of the semiempirical model for catastrophic break up processes developed by Paolicchi et al., (1989) are presented. Among the several changes with respect to the old version, the most important seem to be related to the new treatment of gravitational effects, including self-compression and reaccumulation of fragments. In particular, the new model is able to analyze processes involving both cm-sized objects, like those studied by means of laboratory experiments, as well as much larger bodies, for which self-gravitational effects are dominant; moreover, in this latter case the model seems in principle adequate to describe with the same physics very different phenomena, like the formation of plausible asteroid families and the creation of single, rapidly spinning, objects. This fact, if confirmed by refined analyses, may be of high importance for our general understanding of asteroid collisional evolution.     

Biomonitoring of Atmospheric Heavy Metal Deposition by Mosses in the Vicinity of Industrial Sites

At four industrial regions, heavy metal concentrations and calculated depositions were investigated by sampling and analysing mosses. In each region, a special spatial pattern of heavy metal concentrations was detected, reflecting the industrial processes. Metals most likely originating from the industrial sites showed an exponential decrease of concentrations and depositions with increasing distance from the pollution source. The exponential deposition pattern was in some cases modified by a series of natural factors, like the main direction of winds or orographic conditions. The distance at which deposition dropped to background values was up to 20 km. Beside the fact that the moss-metho is a useful tool for deposition measurement in the vicinity of stationary sources, some improvements for using this method are discussed, highlighting factors such as a proper calculation of deposition from concentrations, or the better knowledge of correlations between heavy metal concentrations in mosses and effects on human health.     

A new building energy model coupled with an urban canopy parameterization for urban climate simulations—part I. formulation, verification, and sensitivity analysis of the model

The generation of heat in buildings, and the way this heat is exchanged with the exterior, plays an important role in urban climate. To analyze the impact on urban climate of a change in the urban structure, it is necessary to build and use a model capable of accounting for all the urban heat fluxes. In this contribution, a new building energy model (BEM) is developed and implemented in an urban canopy parameterization (UCP) for mesoscale models. The new model accounts for: the diffusion of heat through walls, roofs, and floors; natural ventilation; the radiation exchanged between indoor surfaces; the generation of heat due to occupants and equipments; and the consumption of energy due to air conditioning systems. The behavior of BEM is compared to other models used in the thermal analysis of buildings (CBS-MASS, BLAST, and TARP) and with another box-building model. Eventually, a sensitivity analysis of different parameters, as well as a study of the impact of BEM on the UCP is carried out. The validations indicate that BEM provides good estimates of the physical behavior of buildings and it is a step towards a modeling tool that can be an important support to urban planners.     

Evaporation estimates from Nasser Lake, Egypt, based on three floating station data and Bowen ratio energy budget

Nasser Lake is located in a hyper-arid region in the south of Egypt. Evaporation is by far the most important factor in explaining the water losses from the lake. To obtain better management scenarios for Nasser Lake, an accurate estimation of the lake evaporation losses thus is essential. This paper presents an update of previous evaporation estimates, making use of local meteorological and hydrological data collected from instrumented platforms (floating weather stations) at three locations on the lake: at Raft, Allaqi, and Abusembel (respectively at 2, 75, and 280 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam). Results from six conventional evaporation quantification methods were compared with the values obtained by the Bowen ratio energy budget method (BREB). The results of the BREB method showed that there is no significant difference between the evaporation rates at Allaqi and Abusembel. At Raft, higher evaporation rates were obtained, which were assumed to be overestimated due to the high uncertainty of the Bowen ratio (BR) parameter. The average BR value at Allaqi and Abusembel was used to eliminate this overestimates evaporation. Variance-based sensitivity and uncertainty analyses on the BREB results were conducted based on quasi-Monte Carlo sequences (Latin Hypercube sampling). The standard deviation of the total uncertainty on the BREB evaporation rate was found to be 0.62 mm day^?1. The parameter controlling the change in stored energy, followed by the BR parameter, was found to be the most sensitive parameters. Several of the six conventional methods showed substantial bias when compared with the BREB method. These were modified to eliminate the bias. When compared to the BREB-based values, the Penman method showed most favorably for the daily time scale, while for the monthly scale, the Priestley–Taylor and the deBruin–Keijman methods showed best agreement. Differences in mean evaporation estimates of these methods (against the BREB method) were found to be in the range 0.14 and 0.36 mm day^?1. All estimates were based calculations at the daily time scale covering a 10-year period (1995–2004).     

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble

We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM.     

Linking the Chassigny meteorite and the Martian surface rock Backstay: Insights into igneous crustal differentiation processes on Mars

Abstract— In order to use igneous surface lithologies to constrain Martian mantle characteristics, secondary processes that lead to compositional modification of primary mantle melts must be considered. Crystal fractionation of a mantle‐derived magma at the base of the crust followed by separation and ascent of residual liquids to the surface is common in continental hotspot regions on Earth. The possibility that this process also takes place on Mars was investigated by experimentally determining whether a surface rock, specifically the hawaiite Backstay analyzed by the MER Spirit could produce a known cumulate lithology with a deep origin (namely the assemblages of the Chassigny meteorite) if trapped at the base of the Martian crust. Both the major cumulus and melt inclusion mineral assemblages of the Chassigny meteorite were produced experimentally by a liquid of Backstay composition within the pressure range 9.3 to 6.8 kbar with bulk water contents between 1.5 and 2.6 wt%. Experiments at 4.3 and 2.8 kbar did not produce the requisite assemblages. This agreement suggests that just as on Earth, Martian mantle‐derived melts may rise to the surface or remain trapped at the base of the crust, fractionate, and lose their residual liquids. Efficient removal of these residual liquids at depth would yield a deep low‐silica cumulate layer for higher magmatic water content; at lower magmatic water content this cumulate layer would be basaltic with shergottitic affinity.