A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period

Summary A comparison of 8 regional atmospheric model systems was carried out for a three-month late summer/early autumn period in 1995 over the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. All models were configured on a common grid using similar surface and lateral boundary conditions, and ran in either data assimilation mode (short term forecasts plus data assimilation), forecast mode (short term forecasts initialised daily with analyses) or climate mode (no re-initialisation of model interior during entire simulation period). Model results presented in this paper were generally post processed as daily averaged quantities, separate for land and sea areas when relevant. Post processed output was compared against available analyses or observations of cloud cover, precipitation, vertically integrated atmospheric specific humidity, runoff, surface radiation and near surface synoptic observations. The definition of a common grid and lateral forcing resulted in a high degree of agreement among the participating model results for most cases. Models operated in climate mode generally displayed slightly larger deviations from the observations than the data assimilation or forecast mode integration, but in all cases synoptic events were well captured. Correspondence to near surface synoptic quantities was good. Significant disagreement between model results was shown in particular for cloud cover and the radiative properties, average precipitation and runoff. Problems with choosing appropriate initial soil moisture conditions from a common initial soil moisture field resulted in a wide range of evaporation and sensible heat flux values during the first few weeks of the simulations, but better agreement was shown at later times. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001     

The crystal and magnetic structure of Li-aegirine LiFe3+Si2O6: a temperature-dependent study

Single crystals of Li-aegirine LiFe³⁺Si₂O₆ were synthesized at 1573?K and 3?GPa, and a polycrystalline sample suitable for neutron diffraction was produced by ceramic sintering at 1223?K. LiFe³⁺Si₂O₆ is monoclinic, space group C2/c, a=9.6641(2)?Å, b= 8.6612(3)?Å, c=5.2924(2)?Å, β=110.12(1)^° at 300?K as refined from powder neutron data. At 229?K Li-aegirine undergoes a phase transition from C2/c to P2₁ /c. This is indicated by strong discontinuities in the temperature variation of the lattice parameters, especially for the monoclinic angle β and by the appearance of Bragg reflections (hkl) with h+k≠2n. In the low-temperature form two non-equivalent Si-sites with 〈SiA–O〉=1.622?Å and 〈SiB–O〉=1.624?Å at 100?K are present. The bridging angles of the SiO₄ tetrahedra O3–O3–O3 are 192.55(8)° and 160.02(9)° at 100?K in the two independent tetrahedral chains in space group P2₁ /c, whereas it is 180.83(9)° at 300?K in the high-temperature C2/c phase, i.e. the chains are nearly fully expanded. Upon the phase transition the Li-coordination changes from six to five. At 100?K four Li–O bond lengths lie within 2.072(4)–2.172(3)?Å, the fifth Li–O bond length is 2.356(4)?Å, whereas the Li–O3?A bond lengths amount to 2.796(4)?Å. From ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopic measurements between 80 and 500?K the structural phase transition is characterized by a small discontinuity of the quadrupole splitting. Temperature-dependent neutron powder diffraction experiments show first occurrence of magnetic reflections at 16.5?K in good agreement with the point of inflection in the temperature-dependent magnetization of LiFe³⁺Si₂O₆. Distinct preordering phenomena can be observed up to 35?K. At the magnetic phase transition the unit cell parameters exhibit a pronounced magneto-striction of the lattice. Below T _N Li-aegirine shows a collinear antiferromagnetic structure. From our neutron powder diffraction experiments we extract a collinear antiferromagnetic spin arrangement within the a–c plane.     

Spatiotemporal changes in cadmium contamination in the Seine estuary (France)

Cadmium (Cd) is among the major contaminants in the Seine estuary. In the biota, the RNO (Réseau National d’Observation, the French Mussel-Watch) has shown that Cd concentrations in mussels living at the mouth of the estuary are related to changes in inputs to this area of phosphogypsum, a calcium sulphate that is a by-product of the phosphoric acid naturally enriched with Cd. In the water column, Cd concentrations at several key estuary sites show a very marked trend toward decreased contamination in the particles as well as in the dissolved phase. The behavior of Cd in the estuary has been studied between 1991 and 1998 in the framework of the scientific program Seine-Aval. This program has highlighted punctual Cd inputs in the estuarine water column. The partition of Cd between the dissolved and the particulate phase, previously described in various estuaries, is characterized by an intense phenomenon of solubilization in the mixing zone freshwater-seawater, but the colloidal Cd fraction remains low along the whole salinity gradient, about 5% to 10% of the apparent dissolved fraction. Although the decrease of inputs induced a fall of Cd concentrations in the water column, laboratory experiments show that the estuarine particles are far from being exhausted in Cd. Despite continuous efforts to reduce the urban and industrial inputs into the estuarine and coastal waters, the Seine estuary still remains very contaminated by Cd.     

État actuel des données sur l'âge de la terre

Sans résumé     

Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models,model scales and linking methods – a case study on the Lule River basin

This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in hydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.     

Decoupling of arsenic and iron release from ferrihydrite suspension under reducing conditions: a biogeochemical model

High levels of arsenic in groundwater and drinking water are a major health problem. Although the processes controlling the release of As are still not well known, the reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe oxyhydroxides has so far been a favorite hypothesis. Decoupling between arsenic and iron redox transformations has been experimentally demonstrated, but not quantitatively interpreted. Here, we report on incubation batch experiments run with As(V) sorbed on, or co-precipitated with, 2-line ferrihydrite. The biotic and abiotic processes of As release were investigated by using wet chemistry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption and genomic techniques. The incubation experiments were carried out with a phosphate-rich growth medium and a community of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria under strict anoxic conditions for two months. During the first month, the release of Fe(II) in the aqueous phase amounted to only 3% to 10% of the total initial solid Fe concentration, whilst the total aqueous As remained almost constant after an initial exchange with phosphate ions. During the second month, the aqueous Fe(II) concentration remained constant, or even decreased, whereas the total quantity of As released to the solution accounted for 14% to 45% of the total initial solid As concentration. At the end of the incubation, the aqueous-phase arsenic was present predominately as As(III) whilst X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated that more than 70% of the solid-phase arsenic was present as As(V). X-ray diffraction revealed vivianite Fe(II)₃(PO₄)₂.8H₂O in some of the experiments. A biogeochemical model was then developed to simulate these aqueous- and solid-phase results. The two main conclusions drawn from the model are that (1) As(V) is not reduced during the first incubation month with high Eh values, but rather re-adsorbed onto the ferrihydrite surface, and this state remains until arsenic reduction is energetically more favorable than iron reduction, and (2) the release of As during the second month is due to its reduction to the more weakly adsorbed As(III) which cannot compete against carbonate ions for sorption onto ferrihydrite. The model was also successfully applied to recent experimental results on the release of arsenic from Bengal delta sediments.     

Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global energy production potential of woody biomass from forestry for the year 2050 using a bottom-up analysis of key factors. Woody biomass from forestry was defined as all of the aboveground woody biomass of trees, including all products made from woody biomass. This includes the harvesting, processing and use of woody biomass. The projection was performed by comparing the future demand with the future supply of wood, based on existing databases, scenarios, and outlook studies. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the underlying factors that determine this potential and to the gaps and uncertainties in our current knowledge. Key variables included the demand for industrial roundwood and woodfuel, the plantation establishment rates, and the various theoretical, technical, economical, and ecological limitations related to the supply of wood from forests. Forests, as defined in this study, exclude forest plantations. Key uncertainties were the supply of wood from trees outside forests, the future rates of deforestation, the consumption of woodfuel, and the theoretical, technical, economical, or ecological wood production potentials of the forests. Based on a medium demand and medium plantation scenario, the global theoretical potential of the surplus wood supply (i.e., after the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood is met) in 2050 was calculated to be 6.1 Gm³ (71 EJ) and the technical potential to be 5.5 Gm³ (64 EJ). In practice, economical considerations further reduced the surplus wood supply from forests to 1.3 Gm³ year⁻¹ (15 EJ year⁻¹). When ecological criteria were also included, the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood exceeded the supply by 0.7 Gm³ year⁻¹ (8 EJ year⁻¹). The bioenergy potential from logging and processing residues and waste was estimated to be equivalent to 2.4 Gm³ year⁻¹ (28 EJ year⁻¹) wood, based on a medium demand scenario. These results indicate that forests can, in theory, become a major source of bioenergy, and that the use of this bioenergy can, in theory, be realized without endangering the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel and without further deforestation. Regional shortages in the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel can, however, occur in some regions, e.g., South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.     

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 g TP l^-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log₁₀ TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r², as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.