Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry

The Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United Kingdom currently uses a simple carbon-flow model, CFLOW, to calculate the emissions and removals associated with forest planting since 1920. Here, we aim to determine whether a more complex process-based model, the BASic FORest (BASFOR) simulator, could be used instead of CFLOW. The use of a more complex approach allows spatial heterogeneity in soils and weather to be accounted for, but places extra demands on uncertainty quantification. We show how Bayesian methods can be used to address this problem.     

Spatial patterns and correlates of mortality due to selected non-communicable diseases among adults in South Africa, 2011

South Africa has a high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) compared to other African countries. Government has predicted that NCDs will be a major threat of health in the country in the next 20–30 years and recommended a significant reduction in NCDs. This research studies spatial patterns of deaths resulting from chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRD), malignant neoplasms of digestive organs (MNDO), diabetes mellitus (DM) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) among adults aged 15–69 years in 2011 at municipality level. The study uses secondary data from the civil registration system; population census; and supplementary information from the Business Register and a database of public health facilities. Moran’s Index, hot spot analysis and geographically weighted regression were applied to measure spatial autocorrelation of age-standardised death rates; to identify municipalities of high risk of deaths due to selected NCDs; and associated socio-economic and demographic factors. Clusters of high risk of deaths from selected NCDs were identified, with those for CLRD and MNDO mainly in the urban municipalities around the mid and western parts of the country while for DM and CVD they occurred mostly in the urban and rural north-eastern part, as well as in the urban municipalities of Northern Cape for CVD. Hot spots showed differential socio-economic and demographic risk factors in NCDs, which included sex, urbanisation, density of public hospitals; death occurrence in health facilities; smoking; asbestos roofing; mining and quarrying businesses. Findings highlight the importance of community-specific interventions and the need for a neighbourhood-based approach in tackling NCDs.     

Trophic structure of mesopelagic fishes in the Gulf of Mexico revealed by gut content and stable isotope analyses

Mesopelagic fishes represent an important component of the marine food web due to their global distributions, high abundances and ability to transport organic material throughout a large part of the water column. This study combined stable isotope (SIAs) and gut content analyses (GCAs) to characterize the trophic structure of mesopelagic fishes in the North‐Central Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, this study examined whether mesopelagic fishes utilized chemosynthetic energy from cold seeps. Specimens were collected (9–25 August 2007) over three deep (>1,000 m) cold seeps at discrete depths (surface to 1,503 m) over the diurnal cycle. GCA classified 31 species (five families) of mesopelagic fishes into five feeding guilds: piscivores, large crustacean consumers, copepod consumers, generalists and mixed zooplanktivores. However, these guilds were less clearly defined based on stable isotope mixing model (MixSIAR) results, suggesting diets may be more mixed over longer time periods (weeks–months) and across co‐occurring species. Copepods were likely important for the majority of mesopelagic fishes, consistent with GCA (this study) and previous literature. MixSIAR results also identified non‐crustacean prey items, including salps and pteropods, as potentially important prey items for mesopelagic fishes, including those fishes not analysed in GCA (Sternoptyx spp. and Melamphaidae). Salps and other soft‐bodied species are often missed in GCAs. Mesopelagic fishes had δ¹³C results consistent with particulate organic matter serving as the baseline organic carbon source, fueling up to three trophic levels. Fishes that undergo diel vertical migration were depleted in ¹⁵N relative to weak migrators, consistent with depth‐specific isotope trends in sources and consumers, and assimilation of ¹⁵N‐depleted organic matter in surface waters. Linear correlations between fish size and δ¹⁵N values suggested ontogenetic changes in fish diets for several species. While there was no direct measure of mesopelagic fishes assimilating chemosynthetic material, detection of infrequent consumption of this food resource may be hindered by the assimilation of isotopically enriched photosynthetic organic matter. By utilizing multiple dietary metrics (e.g. GCA, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, MixSIAR), this study better defined the trophic structure of mesopelagic fishes and allowed for insights on feeding, ultimately providing useful baseline information from which to track mesopelagic trophodynamics over time and space.     

Host‐dependent differences in resource use associated with Anilocra spp. parasitism in two coral reef fishes,as revealed by stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses

The role of parasites in trophic ecology is poorly understood in marine ecosystems. Stable isotope analyses (SIA) have been widely used in studies of trophic ecology, but have rarely been applied to study the role of parasites. Considering that some parasites are associated with altered host foraging patterns, SIA can help elucidate whether parasitism influences host trophic interactions. French grunt (Haemulon flavolineatum), an abundant Caribbean coral reef fish, contributes greatly to trophic connectivity. They typically depart the reef at dusk, feed overnight in seagrass beds, and return to the reef at dawn. The large parasitic isopod Anilocra haemuli commonly infects French grunt, and infected fish are less likely to complete their diel migration, and are in poorer condition than uninfected conspecifics. Brown chromis (Chromis multilineata) are diurnally feeding planktivores and infection by Anilocra chromis does not influence host condition. To determine if Anilocra infection influences host diet and foraging locality, we conducted stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses on scale, muscle, heart and gill tissues of infected and uninfected French grunt and brown chromis. We determined that all French grunt had δ¹³C values representative of seagrass habitats, but infected French grunt were significantly enriched in ¹³C and ¹⁵N compared to uninfected conspecifics. This suggests that compared to uninfected conspecifics, infected French grunt forage in seagrass, but on isotopically enriched prey, and/or are in poorer condition, which can elevate δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values. For brown chromis, infection did not significantly influence any δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values; hence they all foraged in the same environment and on similar prey. This is the first study to use SIA to examine differences in resource use by Caribbean coral reef fishes associated with parasitism and to evaluate how closely related parasites might have host‐dependent effects on host trophic ecology.     

Observations of Diurnal Cycles Over a West African Meridional Transect: Pre-Monsoon and Full-Monsoon Seasons

We document and characterize the climatology of the diurnal cycles encountered along a West African transect during the pre-monsoon and full-monsoon periods. The meridional gradient in low-level properties is fundamental for the monsoon dynamics and here, for the first time, it is studied based on a large set of observations from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign. A detailed analysis of surface energy budget, boundary-layer structures and cloud occurrence is carried out to investigate the diurnal cycles of the low levels. A relatively weak meridional gradient of net radiation is observed during the pre-monsoon period, and a large gradient in sensible heat flux is found over the transect with values increasing from south to north. This, as well as the boundary-layer structures, partly explains the large contrasts in the diurnal amplitude of potential temperature and specific humidity along the transect. During the monsoon period, the atmospheric regimes drastically change involving strong interactions between the surface, atmosphere and clouds. The maximum in net radiation is shifted northwards, towards the Sahel, which potentially has a significant impact on the monsoon circulation. The sensible heat flux is considerably reduced and the diurnal amplitude is strongly damped, while the daytime boundary-layer growth decreases significantly in the Sahel related to changes in the balance of boundary-layer processes. These results highlight the contrasted diurnal cycle regimes encountered over West Africa under dry, moist and wet conditions. They provide observationally-based diagnostics to investigate the ability of models to handle the representation of the diurnal cycle over land.     

Selected topics in arctic atmosphere and climate

This paper summarizes the main elements of four IPY projects that examine the Arctic Atmosphere. All four projects focus on present conditions with a view to anticipating possible climate change. All four investigate the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interfacial surfaces. One project uses computer models to simulate the dynamics of the Arctic atmosphere, storms, and their interactions with the ocean and ice interface. Another project uses statistical methods to infer transports of pollutants as simulated in large-scale global atmospheric and oceanic models verifying results with available observations. A third project focuses on measurements of pollutants at the ice-ocean?Catmosphere interface, with reference to model estimates. The fourth project is concerned with multiple, high accuracy measurements at Eureka in the Canadian Archipelago. While these projects are distinctly different, led by different teams and interdisciplinary collaborators, with different technical approaches and methodologies, and differing objectives, they all strive to understand the processes of the Arctic atmosphere and climate, and to lay the basis for projections of future changes. Key findings include: ? Decreased sea ice leads to more intense storms, higher winds, reduced surface albedo, increased surface air temperature, and enhanced vertical mixing in the upper ocean. ? Arctic warming may affect toxic chemicals by remobilizing persistent organic pollutants and augmenting mercury deposition/retention in the environment. ? Changes in sea ice can dramatically change processes in and at the ice surface related to ozone, mercury and bromine oxide and related chemical/physical properties. ? Structure and properties of the Arctic atmospheric??troposphere to stratosphere??and tracking of transport of pollution and smoke plumes from mid-latitudes to the poles.     

Multi‐scale classification of fluvial architecture: An example from the Palaeocene–Eocene Bighorn Basin,Wyoming

Fluvial channel geometry classification schemes are commonly restricted in relation to the scale at which the study took place, often due to outcrop limitations or the need to conduct small‐scale detailed studies. A number of classification schemes are present in the literature; however, there is often limited consistency between them, making application difficult. The aim of this study is to address this key problem by describing channel body geometries across a depositional basin to ensure that a wide range of architectures are documented. This was achieved by studying 28 locations over 4000 m of vertical succession in Palaeocene‐aged and Early Eocene‐aged deposits within the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, USA. Five different channel body geometries have been defined based on the external geometric form, and internal arrangement and nature of storey contacts. These include the massive channel body geometry, semi‐amalgamated channel body geometry, internally amalgamated channel body geometry and offset stacked channel body geometry, which are considered to be subdivisions of the sheet geometry of many other classifications. An isolated channel body geometry has also been recognized alongside splay channel and sheet sandstone geometries in the floodplain facies associations. Field evidence, including the stacking style of storey surfaces, suggests that the different geometries form a continuum. The nature and degree of amalgamation at the storey scale are important in producing the different geometries and are related to the degree of channel migration. It is speculated that this is the result of differences in sediment supply and available accommodation. In contrast to previous schemes, the classification scheme presented here recognizes the importance of transitional geometries. This geometrical range has been recognized because of the basin‐scale nature of the study.     

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.     

Oxygen isotopic composition and U-Pb discordance in zircon

We have investigated U-Pb discordance and oxygen isotopic composition of zircon using high-spatial resolution δ¹⁸O measurement by ion microprobe. δ¹⁸O in both concordant and discordant zircon grains provides an indication of the relationship between fluid interaction and discordance. Our results suggest that three characteristics of zircon are interrelated: (1) U-Pb systematics and concomitant age discordance, (2) δ¹⁸O and the water-rock interactions implied therein, and (3) zircon texture, as revealed by cathodoluminescence and BSE imaging. A key observation is that U-Pb-disturbed zircons are often also variably depleted in ¹⁸O, but the relationship between discordance and δ¹⁸O is not systematic. δ¹⁸O values of discordant zircons are generally lighter but irregular in their distribution. Textural differences between zircon grains can be correlated with both U-Pb discordance and δ¹⁸O. Discordant grains exhibit either a recrystallized, fractured, or strongly zoned CL texture, and are characteristic of ¹⁸O depletion. We interpret this to be a result of metamictization, leading to destruction of the zircon lattice and an increased susceptibility to lead loss. Conversely, grains that are concordant have less-expressed zoning and a smoother CL texture and are enriched in ¹⁸O. From this it is apparent that various stages of water-rock interaction, as evidenced by systematic variations in δ¹⁸O, leave their imprint on both the texture and U-Pb systematics of zircon.     

Environmental co-operation in the Baltic Sea region: A Lithuanian perspective

International co-operation is vital if the ecological crisis in the Baltic Sea is to be reversed. Organisations such as the Baltic Co-operation Council and HELCOM and agreements such as the Helsinki Convention, the Baltic Sea Declaration, and the Gdansk Convention, already exist to facilitate co-operation. Successful implementation of these conventions requires commitment at the national level. Lithuania's commitment is hampered by internal economic, and political problems which must be surmounted if the country is to reduce its impact on the Baltic Sea.Part of the following article is published in Baltic Studies in Australia II: AABS; Melbourne, 1993 — the proceedings from the 7th bi-annual Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (Australasian Section) held in Melbourne, September, 1993.