Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.     

The effect of lithology on valley width,terrace distribution,and bedload provenance in a tectonically stable catchment with flat‐lying stratigraphy

How rock resistance or erodibility affects fluvial landforms and processes is an outstanding question in geomorphology that has recently garnered attention owing to the recognition that the erosion rates of bedrock channels largely set the pace of landscape evolution. In this work, we evaluate valley width, terrace distribution, and bedload provenance in terms of reach scale variation in lithology in the study reach and discuss the implications for landscape evolution in a catchment with relatively flat‐lying stratigraphy and very little uplift. A reach of the Buffalo National River in Arkansas was partitioned into lithologic reaches and the mechanical and chemical resistance of the main lithologies making up the catchment was measured. Valley width and the spatial distribution of terraces were compared among the different lithologic reaches. The surface grain size and provenance of coarse (2–90 mm) sediment of both modern gravel bars and older terrace deposits that make up the former bedload were measured and defined. The results demonstrate a strong impact of lithology upon valley width, terrace distribution, and bedload provenance and therefore, upon landscape evolution processes. Channel down‐cutting through different lithologies creates variable patterns of resistance across catchments and continents. Particularly in post‐tectonic and non‐tectonic landscapes, the variation in resistance that arises from the exhumation of different rocks in channel longitudinal profiles can impact local base levels, initiating responses that can be propagated through channel networks. The rate at which that response is transmitted through channels is potentially amplified and/or mitigated by differences between the resistance of channel beds and bedload sediment loads. In the study reach, variation in lithologic resistance influences the prevalence of lateral and vertical processes, thus producing a spatial pattern of terraces that reflects rock type rather than climate, regional base level change, or hydrologic variability. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing flow regime,channel hydraulics,and biological communities to infer flow–ecology relationships in the Mara River of Kenya and Tanzania

Abstract

Equatorial rivers of East Africa exhibit unusually complex seasonal and inter-annual flow regimes, and aquatic and adjacent terrestrial organisms have adapted to cope with this flow variability. This study examined the annual flow regime over the past 40 years for three gauging stations on the Mara River in Kenya and Tanzania, which is of international importance because it is the only perennial river traversing the Mara-Serengeti ecoregion. Select environmental flow components were quantified and converted to ecologically relevant hydraulic variables. Vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected and identified at target study sites during low and high flows. The results were compared with available knowledge of the life histories and flow sensitivities of the riverine communities to infer flow–ecology relationships. Management implications are discussed, including the need to preserve a dynamic environmental flow regime to protect ecosystems in the region. The results for the Mara may serve as a useful model for river basins of the wider equatorial East Africa region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman     

Magnitude of global contraction on Mars from analysis of surface faults: Implications for martian thermal history

Faults provide a record of a planet’s crustal stress state and interior dynamics, including volumetric changes related to long-term cooling. Previous work has suggested that Mars experienced a pulse of large-scale global contraction during Hesperian time. Here we evaluate the evidence for martian global contraction using a recent compilation of thrust faults. Fault-related strains were calculated for wrinkle ridges and lobate scarps to provide lower and upper bounds, respectively, on the magnitude of global contraction from contractional structures observed on the surface of Mars. During the hypothesized pulse of global contraction, contractional strain of −0.007% to −0.13% is indicated by the structures, corresponding to decreases in planetary radius of 112 m to 2.24 km, respectively. By contrast, consideration of all recognized thrust faults regardless of age produces a globally averaged contractional strain of −0.011% to −0.22%, corresponding to a radius decrease of 188 m to 3.77 km since the Early Noachian. The amount of global contraction predicted by thermal models is larger than what is recorded by the faults at the surface, paralleling similar studies for Mercury and the Moon, which suggests that observations of fault populations at the surface may provide tighter bounds on planetary thermal evolution than models alone.     

Time-dependent flexure of the lithospheres on the icy satellites of Jupiter and Saturn

Previous analyses into flexural deformation on the icy satellites of Jupiter and Saturn have assumed static, elastic lithospheres. Viscous creep within the lithosphere, however, can cause evolution over time. Here, we apply a finite-element model that employs a time-dependent elastic–viscous-plastic rheology in order to investigate flexure on icy satellites. Factors that affect this time-dependent response are those that control creep rates; surface temperature, heat flow, and grain size. Our results show that surface temperature is by far the dominant factor. At higher surface temperatures (100–130 K), the evolution of the deformation is such that the thickness of a modeled elastic lithosphere could vary by up to an order of magnitude, depending on the time scale over which the deformation occurred. Because the flexure observed on icy satellites generally indicates transient high heat flow events, our results indicate that the duration of the heat pulse is an important factor. For the icy worlds of Jupiter and Saturn, static models of lithospheric flexure should be used with caution.     

The geographic distribution of small dams in Oregon using ecoregion and landform classification

Abstract

Small dams fragment river landscapes, disrupting channel connectivity and impacting water quality and quantity. Although they impound volumetrically less total water than large dams, the ubiquity of small dams suggests their cumulative impacts could be significant. Documenting the distribution and characteristics of small dams is necessary to understanding and mitigating their impacts. In this study, we compare datasets of small dams in Oregon, compile a new comprehensive dataset, and document geographic variations in small dam distributions between different ecoregions. We used Oregon Water Resources Department dam and Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife fish passage barrier datasets to compare dam heights and contributing drainage areas between different ecoregions. Over 61% of Oregon’s land area is above one or more small dam. We highlight the location of Oregon’s small dams at valley margins, transition zones between flat plains and mountains, and areas of high population density. Given the hidden nature of small dams, evaluation of small dam impacts using public imagery is not effective. However, knowledge of small dam distributions given their association with landforms can aid in finding unrecorded dams, assessing approaches for evaluating their geomorphic impacts, and informing their management.     

Observations of Thin Layers in Coastal Hawaiian Waters

Thin layers of plankton have been documented in a wide variety of environments. The growing body of observations indicates that these features are a critical component of marine ecosystem dynamics and functioning. In the past two decades, much of the research on thin layers was undertaken in temperate coastal waters. Here, we report the first known observations of thin layers of phytoplankton in tropical Hawaiian waters. We conducted an overnight shipboard study during which time we made high-resolution observations of physical and optical structure in the water column. During the overnight cruise, we observed the greatest number of thin layers in the early evening hours when thermal stratification was strongest and most persistent due to a combination of warm air and surface water, as well as light winds. A comparison of these observations with those from temperate regions leads us to hypothesize that the nature and persistence of the physical structure is very important in determining the persistence of thin layered structures. Because plankton biomass is generally lower in tropical regions, the heterogeneous aggregation of food in thin subsurface layers may be more critical to the marine ecosystem than it is in temperate regions where plankton are generally more abundant.     

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

Comparison of flood hazard assessments on desert piedmonts and playas: A case study in Ivanpah Valley, Nevada

Accurate and realistic characterizations of flood hazards on desert piedmonts and playas are increasingly important given the rapid urbanization of arid regions. Flood behavior in arid fluvial systems differs greatly from that of the perennial rivers upon which most conventional flood hazard assessment methods are based. Additionally, hazard assessments may vary widely between studies or even contradict other maps. This study's chief objective was to compare and evaluate landscape interpretation and hazard assessment between types of maps depicting assessments of flood risk in Ivanpah Valley, NV, as a case study. As a secondary goal, we explain likely causes of discrepancy between data sets to ameliorate confusion for map users. Four maps, including three different flood hazard assessments of Ivanpah Valley, NV, were compared: (i) a regulatory map prepared by FEMA, (ii) a soil survey map prepared by NRCS, (iii) a surficial geologic map, and (iv) a flood hazard map derived from the surficial geologic map, both of which were prepared by NBMG. GIS comparisons revealed that only 3.4% (33.9 km²) of Ivanpah Valley was found to lie within a FEMA floodplain, while the geologic flood hazard map indicated that ~ 44% of Ivanpah Valley runs some risk of flooding (Fig. 2D). Due to differences in mapping methodology and scale, NRCS data could not be quantitatively compared, and other comparisons were complicated by differences in flood hazard class criteria and terminology between maps. Owing to its scale and scope of attribute data, the surficial geologic map provides the most useful information on flood hazards for land-use planning. This research has implications for future soil geomorphic mapping and flood risk mitigation on desert piedmonts and playas. The Ivanpah Valley study area also includes the location of a planned new international airport, thus this study has immediate implications for urban development and land-use planning near Las Vegas, NV.     

The architecture, eruptive history, and evolution of the Table Rock Complex, Oregon: From a Surtseyan to an energetic maar eruption

The Table Rock Complex (TRC; Pliocene–Pleistocene), first documented and described by Heiken [Heiken, G.H., 1971. Tuff rings; examples from the Fort Rock-Christmas Lake valley basin, south-central Oregon. J. Geophy. Res. 76, 5615-5626.], is a large and well-exposed mafic phreatomagmatic complex in the Fort Rock–Christmas Lake Valley Basin, south-central Oregon. It spans an area of approximately 40 km², and consists of a large tuff cone in the south (TRC1), and a large tuff ring in the northeast (TRC2). At least seven additional, smaller explosion craters were formed along the flanks of the complex in the time between the two main eruptions. The first period of activity, TRC1, initiated with a Surtseyan-style eruption through a 60–70 m deep lake. The TRC1 deposits are dominated by multiple, 1-2 m thick, fining upward sequences of massive to diffusely-stratified lapilli tuff with intermittent zones of reverse grading, followed by a finely-laminated cap of fine-grained sediment. The massive deposits are interpreted as the result of eruption-fed, subaqueous turbidity current deposits; whereas, the finely laminated cap likely resulted from fallout of suspended fine-grained material through a water column. Other common features are erosive channel scour-and-fill deposits, massive tuff breccias, and abundant soft sediment deformation due to rapid sediment loading. Subaerial TRC1 deposits are exposed only proximal to the edifice, and consist of cross-stratified base-surge deposits. The eruption built a large tuff cone above the lake surface ending with an effusive stage, which produced a lava lake in the crater (365 m above the lake floor). A significant repose period occurred between the TRC1 and TRC2 eruptions, evidenced by up to 50 cm of diatomitic lake sediments at the contact between the two tuff sequences. The TRC2 eruption was the last and most energetic in the complex. General edifice morphology and a high percentage of accidental material suggest eruption through saturated TRC1 deposits and/or playa lake sediments. TRC2 deposits are dominated by three-dimensional dune features with wavelengths 200–500 m perpendicular to the flow, and 20–200 m parallel to the direction of flow depending on distance from source. Large U-shaped channels (10–32 m deep), run-up features over obstacles tens of meters high, and a large (13 m) chute-and-pool feature are also identified. The TRC2 deposits are interpreted as the products of multiple, erosive, highly-inflated pyroclastic surges resulting from collapse of an unusually high eruption column relative to previously documented mafic phreatomagmatic eruptions.