Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.     

On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan

Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947 to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there is − 1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature of Karachi than the MMiT.     

Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios

Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year (1971–2000) crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4°C. Within a water regime, increase in CO₂ concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO₂ level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO₂ level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO₂ level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers.     

The best fitting distribution of annual maximum rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on methods of L-moment and LQ-moment

This paper discusses patterns of annual and monthly precipitation variability at seven weather stations in east central Europe (1851–2007). Precipitation patterns were compared to three simple regional indices of atmospheric circulation, i.e., western circulation, southern circulation and the cyclonicity (C) index and a relationship between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation index was identified. Correlations of the monthly records and multiple regression, using a principal components’ analysis, helped determine the statistical significance of the dependence of precipitation on the circulation indices. The Mann–Kendall test revealed no trend to change in any of the precipitation series, but a certain spatial regularity could be discerned in the phase of the annual periodic component. A common feature of the variability in central European annual precipitation is the dry period identified in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. In the northern part of the region, above-average precipitation was noted from the 1960s through to the mid-1970s as a result of the frequent prevalence of depressions. South of the divide, the wettest period was recorded at the turn of 1930s/1940s. After a number of very wet years in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century, precipitation began to fall at all of the region’s weather stations. The C index is the strongest circulation-linked factor influencing precipitation in central Europe and it accounts for more than 40% of the variance in spatially averaged wintertime precipitation.     

Deformation mechanisms in the frontal Lesser Himalayan Duplex in Sikkim Himalaya,India

Understanding deformation mechanisms in Himalayan rocks is a challenging proposition due to the complex nature of the deformed rocks and their genesis. Crustal deformation in the Himalayan thrust belt typically occurs in elastico-frictional (EF) or quasi-plastic (QP) regimes at depths controlled mainly by regional strain-rate and geothermal gradient. However, material property, grain-size and their progressive changes during deformation are also important controlling factors. We present evidence of EF deformation from Gondwana rocks developed during the emplacement of one of the frontal horses (Jorthang horse) in the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (LHD) structure associated with Lesser Himalayan rocks in the footwall of the Ramgarh thrust in the Rangit window near Jorthang in the Sikkim Himalaya. The rocks in the horse exhibit systematic changes in microand meso-structures from an undeformed protolith to cataclasite suggesting that it was emplaced under elastico-frictional conditions. Meso- to micro-scale shear fractures are seen developed in Gondwana sandstone and slate while intercalated fine-grained shale-coal-carbonates are deformed by cataclastic flow suggesting that material property and grain-size have played an important role in the deformation of the Jorthang horse. In contrast, the hanging wall schists and quartzites of the Ramgarh thrust exhibit quasi-plastic deformation structures. This suggests that the Jorthang horse was emplaced under shallower crustal conditions than the antiformally folded Ramgarh thrust sheet even though the Ramgarh sheet presently overlies the Jorthang horse.     

Cosmic energy equation for extended structures and its application to gravitational galaxy clustering

Cosmic energy equation represents the law of conservation of energy in the region expanding with time as the universe expands. It gives the evolution of kinetic and correlation potential energy with time in a cluster expanding as the universe expands. To understand the clustering of galaxies under the influence of gravitational force, cosmic energy equation is of great help. We use cosmic energy equation for extended structures (galaxies with halos) to analyse the gravitational galaxy clustering in different ways. We try to understand the influence of expansion on the clustering by deriving the relation between correlation parameter b _V and scale factor R. We also derive the relation between the peculiar kinetic energy K and correlation parameter to know that when peculiar kinetic energy dominates over the kinetic energy of galaxies due to expansion. Besides, the evolution of specific heat and energy provides the information regarding the different states of clustering.     

Seismic sources for southern Pakistan and seismic hazard assessment of Karachi

Natural Hazards - Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city with population exceeding 18 million and is amongst the top five most congested cities in the world. Karachi has experienced no earthquake...     

High resolution facies architecture and digital outcrop modeling of the Sandakan formation sandstone reservoir,Borneo:Implications for reservoir characterization and flow simulation

Advances in photogrammetry have eased the acquisition of high-resolution digital information from outcrops, enabling faster, non-destructive data capturing and improved reservoir modeling. Geocellular models for flow dynamics with in the virtual outcrop in siliciclastic deposits at different sets of sandstone facies architecture remain, however, a challenge. Digital maps of bedding, lithological contrast, spatial-temporal variations of bedding and permeability characteristics make it more easy to understand flow tortuosity in a particular architecture. An ability to precisely model these properties can improve reservoir characterization and flow modeling at different scales. Here we demonstrate the construction of realistic 2 D sandstone facies based models for a pragmatic simulation of flow dynamics using a combination of digital point clouds dataset acquired from LiDAR and field investigation of the Sandakan Formation, Sabah, Borneo.Additionally, we present methods for enhancing the accuracy of outcrop digital datasets for producing high resolution flow simulation. A well-exposed outcrop from the Sandakan Formation, Sabah, northwest Borneo having a lateral extent of 750 m was chosen in order to implement our research approach. Sandstone facies and its connectivity are well constrained by outcrop observations, data from air-permeability measurements, bilinear interpolation of permeability, grid construction and water vector analysis for flow dynamics.These proportions were then enumerated in terms of static digital outcrop model(DOM) and facies model based on sandstone facies bedding characteristics. Flow simulation of water vector analysis through each of the four sandstone facies types show persistent spatial correlation of permeability that align with either cross-bedded orientation or straight with more dispersion high quality sandstone(porosity 21.25%-41.2%and permeability 1265.20-5986.25 mD) and moderate quality sandstone(porosity 10.44%-28.75% and permeability 21.44-1023.33 mD). Whereas, in more heterolithic sandstone(wavy-to flaser-bedded and bioturbated sandstone), lateral variations in permeability show spatially non-correlated patterns over centimeters to tens of meters with mostly of low quality sandstone(porosity 3.4%-12.31% and permeability < 1 mD to 3.21 mD). These variations reflect the lateral juxtaposition in flow dynamics. It has also been resulted that the vertical connectivity and heterogeneities in terms of flow are mostly pragmatic due to the interconnected sandstone rather than the quality of sandstone.     

Application of Artificial Intelligence to Estimate Oil Flow Rate in Gas-Lift Wells

Natural Resources Research - Optimization and monitoring schemes for oil well and reservoir system require accurate estimation of production rate. Real-time monitoring is conducted typically using...     

Socio-political and ecological stresses on traditional pastoral systems: A review

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Pastoralism is a viable socio-economic system-shaped by landless and agro-pastoral communities in many pastoral regions of the world. This system is mainly based...