川滇黔桂地区石炭系层序地层研究

川滇黔桂地区石炭系地层发育,其地层划分对比清楚,沉积类型丰富,地表露头良好,是进行层序地层研究的理想场所。本文运用层序地层学的理论和研究方法,在详细的沉积学研究和精细的地层划分对比基础上,对川滇黔桂地区石炭系地层进行了精细的露头层序地层研究,详细阐述了层序建立和各种界面的露头标志,探讨了川滇黔桂地区石炭系地层的层序划分、层序区域对比。在此基础上,建立了研究区石炭系层序地层时空格架示意图。     

岬间海滩泥沙运动趋势与波能流分布的季节变化性

根据对粤东－岬间海滩冬夏季采集的表层泥沙的粒度分析结果,本文采用沉积物输运趋势概率模式对海滩泥沙沿岸运动方向作了统计分析,进而从波折射数值计算得到的波能流的沿岸分布讨论了对沿滩输沙的季节性效应。     

海滩碎波带波能振荡的多尺度分析

对不同波况条件下实测的一岬间海滩碎波带两个上的波面数据,通过小波变换方法计算了小波谱,并作了显性检验。结果表明：（１）碎波带波能存在典型的多尺度振荡特性;（２）在正常波况下,波能主要分布于风浪频域,入射波自外测站向内测站传播过程中,能量具有向低频方向转移的趋势;（３）在高能波况下,能量均向长重力波频带增加,在长力波显尺度,二测站之间存在良好的位相一致关系。     

应用于强对流天气预报的模式探空产品

仿照实测探空，根据数值模式站点预报的气象要素设计了包含十种常用稳定度指数的斜T-InP模式探空图。在综合评估的基础上，设计了一种模式探空的订正和产品的形成方法，并制作产品显示系统，它可以方便地提供地面站点模式探空和交互式模式探空的图形产品。模式探空产品的统计评估和具体强对流天气的个例分析中表明，模式探空产品对强对流天气预报有帮助。     

加密探空资料在华南暴雨数值预报的应用试验

应用逐时同化预报系统CHAF进行加密探空资料同化试验,比较了同化加密探空资料与仅同化常规探空资料所得同化分析场和模式预报结果的差异.同化加密探空资料所得分析场水汽的均方根误差减小,水汽条件和大气环流形势与实况更接近.以加密同化探空资料所得分析场为模式初始场进行预报,雨区的分布和降水量级都较控制试验有改善.分析模式预报改...     

Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China

To support short-range weather forecast, a high-resolution model (1km) is developed and technicallyupgraded in the South China Regional Center, including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and predictor-corrector method for Semi-Implicit and Semi-Lagrangian (SISL) in model dynamical core, as well as the improvementof physical parameterization. Furthermore, the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developedand have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing process. Theexperimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improvethe prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time step. The batch test shows that the precipitationforecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km model. The 1-km model is in operation withrapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals, which can be applied to short-range forecast and nowcasting application.     

逐时云迹风资料同化对暴雨预报的模拟试验

文中基于不同的云迹风同化方案,用GRAPES模式对2005年7月11-12日长江中下游一次暴雨强降水过程进行了云迹风资料同化试验及数值模拟,通过对比分析不同方案所得的分析场及预报场的差异,研究逐时云迹风资料三维变分同化对分析场及暴雨预报的影响.首先,根据连续性原理及双通道各层次云迹风资料的误差分析,分3个步骤对7月11日00:00-12:00 UTC共12个时次的双通道云迹风资料进行了初步的质量控制;然后,把经过质量控制的云迹风资料放入基于GRAPES 3D-VAR三维变分同化方案开发的逐小时循环同化系统中进行同化,将得出的分析场与单一时次未经质量控制的云迹风资料同化得出的分析场进行对比,探讨了逐时云迹风资料同化对数值预报分析场的影响;最后,把同化后的分析场作为初始场,用 GRAPES模式对 2005年7月11-12日长江流域暴雨过程做24 h降水预报试验,分析两个同化方案所模拟得到的预报场的差异.结果表明,经资料的筛选、同经纬度单点通道的选择及资料的稀疏化3个步骤控制后,各层次云迹风资料的误差有明显减小;加入经质量控制的逐时云迹风资料其三维变分同化可以提高分析场中风压场及水汽场的质量;而且在暴雨预报试验中可以相对更准确地预报暴雨落区及雨强.     

华南暖区降水数值预报的初值同化试验

为了了解初值场对华南短时临近降水预报的影响,文中利用GRAPES区域中尺度模式,针对华南一次暖区暴雨过程分别进行控制试验、同化地面探空资料、nudging雨水资料和同化雷达径向风等四个模拟试验。分析结果表明：(1) 同化地面探空资料有助于改善24小时的降水落区及其量级;(2) nudging雨水资料对临近降水预报有积极影响;(3) 同化雷达径向风能使24小时的降水落区、量级得到明显的提升。这些结论为下一步的华南地区短时临近降水预报研究提供了重要的技术参考。     

基于Z-I关系和变分校正法改进雷达估测降水

将新回归系数估计法和新误差订正法应用于3 km的雷达CAPPI估测降水,首先用新的回归方法得出更合理的Z-I关系;再用基于变分技术的新的误差订正方法对估算出的降水进行订正,获得较好的估算结果,并且用2005年6月17～25日广东自动站降水和每6分钟一次的雷达基数据对新回归系数估计法和新误差订正法进行验证,结果表明:将新回归系数估计法和新误差订正法用于雷达估测降水,能更好地对雷达回波强度估算降水的一些常见误差进行校订.     

THE APPLICATION OF ASSIMILATED AIRCRAFT DATA IN SIMULATING A HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH CHINA IN JUNE 2005

Regular and irregular observational data are used to analyze and simulate a torrential rain over the south of China on 18 – 24 June 2005. Since the regular data cannot depict the rainfall system fully, GRAPES model is used to simulate this process. Different data are assimilated for 12 hours by its simulating system and different analysis data are obtained. In order to analyze how well the model forecast has been improved with the addition of assimilated aircraft data, these different analysis data are used as the first-guess data to conduct two control numerical simulation tests. From these tests, it is proved that the model that adds aircraft assimilation data can simulate the main region of precipitation, which is more consistent with the observed precipitation than the model that does not, and that the accuracy rate is also improved. These numerical simulation tests not only show that it is necessary and capable to improve the modeling of this torrential rain process by using aircraft data, but also lays the foundation for forecasting heavy rains in the south of China based on aircraft data.