春季高原东南角多雨中心的气候特征及水汽输送分析

利用藏东南及滇西北的雨量资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,揭示了青藏高原东南角多雨中心春季的"早雨季"气候事实,发现多雨中心雨季长达9个月,春汛期雨量占全年总雨量的30%~40%,降水极大值也可出现在春汛期。通过整层水汽通量诊断分析,研究了春季青藏高原东南角多雨中心的水汽输送特征,结果表明:青藏高原东南角多雨中心上游雅鲁藏布江流域存在一个水汽通量大值中心,在阿拉伯海北部与孟加拉湾北部及印缅北部也存在水汽通量大值区,相关分析发现,多雨中心的降水与上述水汽通量大值区存在显著相关性;水汽流场显示出雅鲁藏布江—布拉马普特拉河、孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海和南支槽前偏西水汽流向多雨中心输送水汽,使其成为"水汽汇",雅鲁藏布江、阿拉伯海的远距离水汽输送是多雨中心水汽来源不可忽视的重要因素。     

云南省金平白马寨铜镍矿区镁铁-超镁铁岩群地球化学特征

金平地区镁铁岩区位于扬子克拉通西南缘哀牢山深大断裂南西侧的金平-黑水河裂谷带北段,由5个主要相对集中的(超)基性岩群(带)组成,以白马寨岩群岩体分异最强,矿化规模最大.通过对金平白马寨(超)镁铁质侵入岩的岩石化学特征、微量元素及稀土元素特征等方面的研究,初步认为,金平白马寨(超)镁铁岩具有低钛低磷的化学成分特征,岩石主要属钙碱性岩系,具岛弧带和造山带的特征,岩石含镁较高并具苦橄岩的成分特点,表明岩石形成温度较高,可能与地幔柱尾部的岩浆演化有关.     

干旱区植物根际土壤养分状况的对比研究

利用根袋模拟实验方法,研究了古尔班通古特沙漠南缘5种常见植物梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)、白梭梭(Haloxylon persicum)、刺沙蓬(Salsola ruathenica)、骆驼蓬(Peganum harmala)和骆驼刺(Alhagi sparsifolia)的根际和非根际土壤的pH...     

长江上游社会经济因子对侵蚀产沙的影响

In recent years,the role of human activities in changing sediment yield has become more apparent for the construction of hydraulic engineering and water conservation projec-tions in the Upper Yangtze River,but it has not been evaluated at the macro scale.Taking Sichuan Province and Chongqing City as an example,this paper studies the relationship between socio-economic factors and sediment yield in the Upper Yangtze River based on section data in 1989 and 2007.The results show that sediment yield is significantly correlated with population density and cultivated area,in which the former appears to be more closely related to sediment yield.Moreover,in the relation of sediment yield vs.population density,a critical value of population density exists,below which the sediment yield increases with the increase of population density and over which the sediment yield increases with the decrease of population density.The phenomenon essentially reflects the influence of natural factors,such as topography,precipitation and soil property,and some human activities on sediment yield.The region with a higher population density than critical value is located in the east of the study area and is characterized by plains,hills and low mountains,whereas the opposite is located in the west and characterized by middle and high mountains.In the eastern region,more people live on the lands with a low slope where regional soil erosion is slight;therefore,sediment yield is negatively related with population density.In contrast,in the western region,the population tends to aggregate in the areas with abundant soil and water resources which usually lead to a higher intensity of natural erosion,and in turn,high-intensity agricultural practices in these areas may further strengthen local soil erosion.It is also found that popu-lation tends to move from the areas with bad environment and high sediment yield to the areas with more comfortable environment and less sediment yield.The natural factors have greater influence on sediment yield of western region than that of eastern region.Generally,the natural factors play a dominant role on sediment yield in the Upper Yangtze River.     

北极涛动对华北沙尘暴频次的影响

This study has investigated the influence of Arctic Oscillation (AO) on dust storm frequency in North China in spring seasons during 1961 2007.There is a significant linkage between dust storm frequency and AO;a negative (positive) AO phase is related to an in-creased (decreased) dust storm frequency in North China.This relationship is closely related to changes in the cold air activity in Mongolia.The cold air activity exerts large impacts on the dust storm frequency;the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia not only positively cor-relates with the dust storm frequency in North China,but also shows a long-term decreasing trend that is an important reason for the long-term decreasing of dust storm frequency in North China.The AO has large influence on the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia;a negative (positive) AO phase is highly related to an increased (decreased) frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia,which results in an increased (decreased) dust storm frequency in North China.     

PRM标量平流方案在GRAPES全球预报系统中的应用

如何更好地模拟水物质的分布,对于数值天气预报效果的改进,特别是对于更好地模拟降水过程,具有重要的意义。半拉格朗日模式中的标量平流计算要求做到高精度、守恒、正定和保形,但GRAPES_GFS (Global-Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System, Global Forecast System) 中采用的QMSL(Quasi-Monotone Semi-Lagrangian)平流方案在水汽的强梯度、不连续区域计算精度较低,且不能做到严格守恒。本研究借鉴计算流体力学领域的研究进展,将一个基于分段有理函数的物质平流方案PRM(Piecewise Rational Method)引入GRAPES_GFS中,按照通量形式求解水汽方程,并对极区进行了混合等技术处理。通过一系列理想试验对两种平流方案进行了对比,证明了PRM方案精度较高,特别是在水汽梯度大的区域优势明显,频散、耗散误差较小,守恒、保形性也要好于QMSL方案。通过对GRAPES_GFS中批量预报试验效果的检验,验证了PRM方案可以有效地改进模式对水物质分布的模拟,提高了降水的预报效果,对模式综合预报性能的提升也有明显作用。     

集合变分混合同化方案在快速循环同化系统中的应用研究

基于北京市气象局快速循环同化系统RMAPS-ST以及对流尺度集合预报系统RMAPS-EN,构建了En-3DVAR集合变分混合同化系统,将该系统应用到业务快速循环同化系统中并进行试验,分别在冷启动与循环启动环境下对比了混合同化系统（Hybrid）与三维变分（3DVAR）的同化预报效果。获得的结论如下:单点试验结果表明,混合同化系统分析增量的分布与集合预报离散度分布具有较好的对应关系;在冷启动和循环启动中,三维变分的分析增量都表现出各向同性的特点,混合同化分析增量均表现出一定的流依赖特征;降水个例分析表明,在冷启动环境中,Hybrid与3DVAR效果相当,而在循环启动中,Hybrid的降水预报相对于3DVAR有较明显的改进效果;批量试验检验结果表明,冷启动中,Hybrid与3DVAR的评分大致相当,而在循环启动中,Hybrid相对于3DVAR的评分有明显改进;集合离散度和背景场误差的相关性分析表明二者在循环启动环境下具有更好的相关性。     

重大自然灾害空间信息协同服务机制研究

结合重大自然灾害应急管理的业务需求,分析了国外数据共享实践经验与案例,基于国家灾害管理实践工作经验,提出了中国建设重大自然灾害空间信息协同服务机制的构想。在进行职责任务划分的基础上,设立了包括指令中枢、数据中枢和信息中枢的立体化体制架构,并结合国家灾害管理业务工作的实际情况,制定了服务机制的业务关系流程,设定应急与常规相结合的运行模式,并对所需的保障配套机制进行了研究和分析。目前,重大自然灾害空间信息协同服务机制已经在国家灾害管理部门得到了一定范围的实践和检验,取得了较好的应用效果和社会经济效益。     

德州市气象局一次网络故障分析及解决

通过网络数据抓包软件对局域网中数据流的分析,对德州市气象局一次局域网网络拥堵现象进行研究分析,在首先分析局域网网络拓扑结构的基础上,判断问题的原因并找到解决问题的具体方法,快速恢复正常网络环境并做好系统日志记录。