A Statistical Analysis on the Effect of Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Development

Using tropical cyclone (TC) best track and intensity of the western North Pacific data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1992-2002, the effects of vertical wind shear on TC intensity are examined. The samples were limited to the westward or northwestward moving TCs between 5°N and 20°N in order to minimize thermodynamic effects. It is found that the effect of vertical wind shear between 200 and 500 hPa on TC intensity change is larger than that of the shear between 500 and 850 hPa, while similar to that of the shear between 200 and 850 hPa. Vertical wind shear may have a threshold value, which tends to decrease as TC intensifies. As the intensifying rate of TC weakens, the average shear increases. The large shear has the obvious trend of inhibiting TC development. The average shear of TC which can develop into typhoon (tropical depression or tropical storm) is below 7 m s-1 (above 8 m s-1).     

阿尔金构造系渐新世—中新世以来断裂左旋位错的空分布规律研究

组成阿尔金构造系的断裂,均具左旋位错特征。发生于渐新世－中新世以来的总位错量４５０￣７００ｋｍ。其中,分布于阿尔金断裂带上的位错量达２２５￣３７５ｋｍ。分布于其它断裂带上的位错量达１５０￣２５０ｋｍ。发生于上新世以来的总镁错量为４０￣５０ｋｍ。发生于第四纪的左旋位错量２０￣２７ｋｍ。其中,分布在阿尔金断裂带上的位错量为７￣１７ｋｍ,分布于其它断裂带上的位错量为１０ｋｍ左右。     

钻孔后压浆灌注桩承载力试验研究

介绍了钻孔后压浆灌注桩施工工艺和加固机理,并根据原位测试结果分析了钻孔后压浆灌注桩荷载传递规律和大面积堆载试验对承载力的影响。     

Influence of sea level rise on Shanghai astronomical tide and storm surge and estimation of probable water level

reODUCTIONSthtrendanditsinfluencehaveattiactedInanresearchersinrecentyears.He(l994)exPloredthePOssibleeffectofSLRonZhuiang(Pear)fuverdeltaSSbyusingarelativelysimPletecboqUeofcollatingfutUreSthincrementswithrecenily-measuredtidalcharaCteristicvalues.Pengetal.(l994)usedasindlaraPProachtoinvestigatetheSthinf[uenceonTianinSS.SthhasqUitepronouncedimPatontheinteractionbetweenSSandATinshallowwater-SSandATgenesisaxegrealyinfluencedbylocalwaterdepthandtOpography-TocoPewiththenonlinearr…     

用照相底片精确测定依巴谷星的自行

利用上海天文台佘山40cm折射望远镜拍摄的历元间隔约为27年的6张底片,共计有14次露光观测,以PPM星表作为初始参考星表,按中心重叠法进行归算,得到了南天区域内21颗恒星的高精度位置和自行,其中有6颗是依巴谷星,它们的赤经和赤纬精度的平均值分别为1.8ms和22mas ,赤经自行和赤纬自行精度的平均值分别灰0.068ms/a和0.97mas/a。     

关家沟泥石流灾害及其防治对策研究

关家沟是一条灾害性泥石注沟，自１７８０年以来的２１０年曾４次对文县县城构成灭顶之灾，仅９８２年的泥石流灾害就造成３３个死亡，经济损失３０００余万元，为了有效保护文县县城，村舍，农田，国道２１２线及下游电站的安全，根据该沟泥流特征和成灾方式，采取了工程措施为主，生物措施与工程措施相结合；以拦为主，拦排结合综合防治对策。     

省级气象事业发展计划编制方法的研究与实践

省级气象事业发展计划编制方法的研究与实践杜顺义宋宏（山西省气象局０３０００２）气象事业发展计划是对一个阶段气象事业发展方向、发展目标、建设重点、保障措施等的远景设想和总体发展蓝图。因此编制气象事业发展计划，不但要有明确的指导思想、建设任务，而且要采用...     

塔里木盆地北部三叠系储层成岩作用

塔里木盆地北部三叠系储层为一套低成熟度砂岩，其成岩作用的最大特点是浅埋环境及早期成岩阶段所发生的成岩作用较弱，深埋环境民岩作用占主导地位，而且以改善储集性能的建设性作用为主，最高成岩演化阶段为中成岩期成熟阶段“Ａ”。     

全国季节冻土地区工程抗冻害学术讨论会将于今年8月在长春举行

由中国地理学会冰川冻土分会、中国水利学会岩土力学专业委员会、全国水工建筑物抗冻科研协作组、全国水工建筑物抗冻情报网等联合举办的全国季节冻土地区工程抗害学术讨论会将于今年8月     

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

1INTRODUCTIONErrorsofnumericalforecastingcomprisethoseintheinitialvalue,modelandcomputationandthefirstkindoferrorbecomesmoreandmoreoutstandingwiththeon-goingdevelopmentofcomputersandnumericalmodels.Subjecttoavailableobservationmeans,therealatmosphereisanythingbutapproximatelymeasured.Meanwhile,oneshouldpayattentiontothepossibility,assuggestedbyLorenz[1],thatanyslightdifferencesduringtheinitialstatemayleadtoresultsthatturnouttobetotallydissimilarfromwhatwouldbeexpectedotherwise,asfarasdefi…