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Based on the GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR (Ensemble three-dimension hybrid data assimilation for Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction system) constructed by China Meteorological Administration, a 7-day simulation (from 10 July 2015 to 16 July 2015) is conducted for horizontal localization scales. 48h forecasts have been designed for each test, and seven different horizontal localization scales of 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500 and 1750 km are set. The 7-day simulation results show that the optimal horizontal localization scales over the Tibetan Plateau and the plain area are 1500 km and 1000 km, respectively. As a result, based on the GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR, a topography-dependent horizontal localization scale scheme (hereinafter referred to as GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS) has been constructed. The data assimilation and forecast experiments have been implemented by GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR, 3DVAR and GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS, and then the analysis and forecast field of these three systems are compared. The results show that the analysis field and forecast field within 30h of GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS are better than those of the other two data assimilation systems. Particularly in the analysis field, the root mean square error (RMSE) of u_wind and v_wind in the entire vertical levels is significantly less than that of the other two systems. The time series of total RMSE indicate, in the 6-30h forecast range, that the forecast result of En-3DVAR-TD-HLS is better than that of the other two systems, but the En-3DVAR and 3DVAR are equivalent in terms of their forecast skills. The 36-48h forecasts of three data assimilation systems have similar forecast skill. 相似文献
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基于重庆市气象局中尺度数值预报业务系统,开展不同地形平滑方案对模式降水预报的影响研究,详细对比WRF模式中不使用地形平滑方案以及使用s-d-s和1-2-1两种平滑方案生成的静态地形高度场的差异,开展不同地形平滑方案批量平行试验并选取典型强降水个例进行对比分析,结果表明:不同地形平滑方案生成的静态地形高度场之间有明显的差异,特别是在地形较为陡峭的高原和山脉等地区,最大绝对偏差可达462.56m;s-d-s和1-2-1两种地形平滑方案主要平滑掉了模式地形中较小尺度的地形特征,且总体而言1-2-1方案的平滑效果比s-d-s方案明显。连续一个月批量平行试验降水预报检验结果表明,进行模式地形平滑对大雨及以上量级降水预报有正面影响,且使用1-2-1平滑方案的预报结果优于使用s-d-s平滑方案的预报结果;降水个例对比分析结果表明:采用不同的地形平滑方案会造成垂直速度和水汽通量散度预报的明显差异,这样的明显差异会进而影响强降水预报的落区和强度。 相似文献
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垃圾填埋场存在堆体滑坡、渗滤液外溢和气味大等问题,严重影响了居民的生活环境及生命安全.其在治理过程中需要采集表面积、垃圾方量等空间数据,全站仪、GPS等传统测量方法费时、费力,再加上垃圾填埋场环境较差,使得数据采集更加困难.因此本文提出一种基于无人机倾斜摄影测量的垃圾填埋场空间数据获取与建模方法.该方法首先通过无人机倾斜摄影获得垃圾填埋场的影像、无人机的位置和姿态数据;然后,利用Cont-extCapture软件对数据进行空三加密等预处理;最后,生成三维模型、DOM和DSM数据.在东莞市清溪镇垃圾填埋场治理中的实际应用,证明本文提出的方法有效,经济效益明显,具有很好的应用前景与价值. 相似文献
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为了综合全面地反映城市群高速铁路规划线网的总体性能,评价比选出最优规划方案,针对复杂多因素约束条件下评价指标信息的非“二分法”特性,本文在GIS技术支持下,尝试提出了基于区间直觉模糊集的城市群高速铁路线网评价模型。该模型从区间直觉模糊数的几何意义出发,基于熵值最大化原理,求出指标的权重,获得不同决策者对各个方案的评价值。最后,综合不同决策者意见得出各个方案的最终评价值。以辽中南城市群高速铁路线网规划评价为例,进行了基于区间直觉模糊集的城市群高速铁路线网方案评价。分析表明提出的方法能够描述决策者判断过程中的犹豫程度,可以更细腻、更全面地描述评价指标的自然属性,从而使评价结果更符合客观实际情况。 相似文献