THE VARIATION OF THE HEAT SOURCES IN EAST CHINA IN THE EARLY SUMMER OF 1984 AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION IN EAST ASIA

The distributions and daily variations of the apparent heat source (Q1 ) and the apparent moisture sink (Q2 ) in East China in the early summer of 1984 have been estimated with the budget calculation method. It has been found that during this time period, there occurred three significant episodes of strong heating that corresponded to the three events of heavy rainfalls prior to, during and post to the onset of mei-yu (plum rains). The peaks of Q1 were generally found at 200 hPa, with the heating rate of 6°-10℃/day observed, while the peaks of Q2 were located at about 700 hPa, with their magnitudes being 12°-20℃/day. The vertical distribution of Q1 and Q2 indicates the importance of eddy vertical flux. In other words, the convective activity plays a very important role in the processes of precipitation in East Asia in the early summer. This result is different from the finding obtained by Luo and Yanai (1984) in their calculation of the case of 1979. They pointed out that in the early summer of 1979     

东亚地区区域气候模拟的研究进展

由于大气环流模式对东亚地区区域气候特征的模拟存在很大不足,采用区域气候模式模拟该地区特殊的季风气候成为目前发展的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过回顾当前东亚地区区域气候模拟的现状,表明大部分区域气候模式都不同程度地模拟出了东亚季风区持续性洪涝现象的大尺度环流特征和演变过程,再现了东亚各主要气候区降水的年际、季节和季节内变化及主要雨带的季节进退和降水的时空演变特征。但是,大部分模式没能很好地模拟出大尺度特征的强度和量值,模拟的温度和降水存在系统性偏差。原因分析表明,进一步完善和改进区域气候模式的物理过程参数化方案及动力框架可以改善模拟效果。最后对区域气候模式未来的发展给出展望。     

ENSO发生前与发展初期赤道西太平洋西风异常的爆发问题

利用 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料 ,通过对 El Nino与 La Nina发生前与发展初期低层风场的合成分析 ,发现在赤道中东太平洋增暖当年的春季与夏季 ,赤道西太平洋存在两次显著的西风局地 ( 1 40°E～ 1 80 )增强过程。其原因并不仅仅在于印度洋的西风异常东移 ,更在于南北半球的经向风在该地区强烈辐合 ,造成局地气压梯度增强 ,促进西风加强并向东爆发 ;同时由于地球自转效应的作用 ,来自北半球的东北风到达赤道附近后转西北风 ,南半球的东南风转西南风 ,直接加强了西风的强度。对比分析南北半球经向风的作用表明 ,南半球东南风的强度与位置更稳定 ,对赤道西风两次增幅过程的贡献更大。这支南半球的经向气流来自高纬极区 ,与中高纬度气压场异常有直接的关系。     

LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION CONDITIONS AFFECTINGTHE TYPHOON FORMATION OVER THENORTHWEST PACIFIC

A contrasting study of the large-scale circulation features responsible for months with many typhoons and months with tew typhoons has revealed that the frequency of typhoon formation over the Northwest Pacific is related to the following conditions:Over the Northwest Pacific, a well-defined ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) extending eastward to 160°E was displaced to 20°N. At 200 mb, an extensive anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevails over the western and central Pacific. The condition characteristic of a break in the monsoon prevailed in India. The monsoon trough at 500 mb and at the surface over the Indian Peninsula was relatively weak and was accompanied by higher-than-normal rainfall in the northern part of India and lower-than-normal rainfall over the peninsula. In addition, the polar vortex tends to be weak and move to the side of the Northern Hemisphere, opposite to the North Pacific. Finally, abnormally warm water was observed over the Central and Eastern Pacific and abnormally cold     

亚洲夏季风爆发的基本气候特征分析

利用统一的亚洲热带夏季风爆发指标,重新制作了季风爆发日期的推进图,确证了亚洲热带夏季风最早在热带东印度洋与中印半岛中南部爆发的观点,这发生在26候(5月10日前后),28候(5月20日前后)在南海地区相继爆发,这两个地区的爆发是属同一季风系的不同爆发阶段.以后通过对海陆热力对比、季节内振荡等多方面的分析,对夏季风的爆发机制问题进行了深入的研究,提出了气候学意义下影响亚洲热带夏季风爆发的关键影响因子.在此基础上,给出了夏季风最早在热带东印度洋-中印半岛-南海地区爆发机理的一种概念模式图,即大气环流的季节进程是季风爆发的背景条件;而中印半岛及其邻近地区对流活动和感热与潜热加热的迅速增强与北推、印缅槽的强烈加深,以及高原东部地区的西风暖平流作用是夏季风爆发的主要驱动力,其结果是使经向温度梯度首先在这个地区反向并建立强的上升运动区,使热带季风和降水迅速发展和加强;来自不同源地的低频30-60 d和10-20 d季节内振荡的锁相则是夏季风爆发的一种触发因子,正是这些因子的共同作用导致了亚洲热带夏季风在这个地区的最早爆发.     

中国近百年温度曲线的对比分析

 温度变化是全球变化研究中非常重要的基础性问题,在中国近百年温度变化方面,十几年来已取得了明显进展,这首先表现在建立了若干条全国平均气温序列,而几条主要序列间的相关系数在0.73～0.97之间。同时,这些进展也表现在基础资料质量提高、空间覆盖面扩大、序列均一性改善以及结果可靠性提高等方面。对多序列进行综合分析得到的新结果显示,1906-2005年中国的年平均气温上升了（0.78±0.27）℃,2007年是我国近百年来最暖的一年;代表性分析显示,现有的几条中国温度序列中除覆盖完整的序列外,其他序列在1920或1930年代以前可能主要反映中国东部变化情况,但在此之后则能较好地代表全国大部分地区的气候变化特征。     

ENSO及其组合模态对中国东部各季节降水的影响

基于1961-2016年中国地面台站降水观测资料和多种再分析资料,分析了东部型和中部型两类厄尔尼诺事件对中国夏季水汽输送和降水的不同影响。结果表明：（1）厄尔尼诺事件对中国夏季降水的影响在发生当年和次年有明显的不同,主要影响是在其发生的次年,中国大部分地区的夏季降水明显偏多。（2）东部型厄尔尼诺事件当年夏季,西北太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏东偏弱,水汽输送条件较弱,不利于中国大范围降水的发生;中部型事件当年夏季,低纬度印度洋和西太平洋蒸发异常偏强,来自阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾和西北太平洋向华南地区的水汽输送和净水汽收支增加,有利于华南地区降水的异常增多。（3）东部型厄尔尼诺事件次年夏季,副热带太平洋蒸发异常偏强,副高西伸,由于东亚-太平洋（EAP）遥相关型的建立,副高西侧的强西南气流将来自太平洋蒸发的大量水汽持续输送至中国中东部地区。此外,在东亚-太平洋遥相关型影响下中高纬度地区建立了亚洲双阻型环流,其间的低槽冷涡与上游阻高之间的强偏北气流有利于北冰洋的水汽持续输送到西北和华北北部地区,中国大部分地区净水汽收支均增加,中国北方和南方地区的降水均产生了明显的同步性增多响应,形成了南北两条异常雨带。中部型厄尔尼诺事件次年夏季,副高较常年偏西且偏北,来自太平洋蒸发的大量水汽输送到江淮地区,使其净水汽收支增加和降水偏多。因此,厄尔尼诺事件的发生不仅对长江流域和淮河流域等南方地区的降水有重要影响,对华北、东北和西北地区的降水异常也有相当的作用。     

ENSO事件对我国季节降水和温度的影响

对近40年来ENSO当年和次年我国季节降水和温度异常进行了合成分析和信度检验。结果表明，ENSO当年我国以少雨、低温为主，次年则相反。降水和温度异常季节变化也基本呈相反趋势。长江中下游地区显著降水异常并不发生在夏季，而在ENSO当年春、秋季和次年春季；东北地区最显著的低温也不在夏季，而在ENSO当年秋季至次年春季。根据本文结果对目前ENSO影响研究中的有关问题提出了看法。     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.     

赤道地区向西传播的40天周期低频波

本文用滤波和EOF位相合成技术对1981年7—12月份赤道地区出现的向西传播的40天周期低频波进行了分析。结果认为东太平洋地区从南半球到北半球的越赤道40天周期温度波是产生这种西传波的主要原因。这种波动主要产生于两个源地:一个是赤道150°E附近的对流层下层;另一个是110°W的赤道对流层上层。这两处产生的低频波性质不一样,前者与对流密切相关。通过计算整层积分的非绝热加热Q_1和水汽汇Q_2,结果表明Q_1加热中心在东太平洋也有越赤道传播。在150°E以西Q_2加热中心是向西北传播的,与低频波方向一致,Q_1的传播特征不明显,这说明西太平洋地区的热带对流可能有这种周期振荡。