Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.     

Complex formation in the ternary system Mg(II)-CO2-H2O

The carbonato and hydrogencarbonato complexes of Mg²⁺ were investigated at 25 and 50° in solutions of the constant ClO₄^? molality (3 M) consisting preponderantly of NaClO₄. The experimental data could be explained assuming the following equilibria: Mg²⁺ + CO_2B + H₂O ag MgHCO⁺₃ + H⁺, $\text{log}{}^1\text{β}{}_1\text{= ?7.64}{}_4\text{± 0.01}{}_7\text{(25°), ?7.46}{}_2\text{± 0.01}{}_1\text{(50°)}$, Mg²⁺ + 2 CO_2g + 2 H₂Oag Mg(HCO₃)⁰₂ ± 2 H⁺, $\text{log}{}^1\text{β}{}_2\text{= ?15.00 ± 0.14 (25°)}$, ?15.37 ± 0.39 (50°), Mg²⁺ + CO_2g + H₂Oag MgCO⁰₃ + 2 H⁺, $\text{log}{}^1\text{k}{}_1\text{= ?15.64 ± 0.06 (25°)}$,?15.23 ± 0.02 (50°), with the assumption γ_MgCO3⁰ = γ_Mg(HCO3)⁰2, ΔG⁰(I = 0) for the reaction MgCO⁰₃ + CO_2g + H₂O = Mg(HCO₃)⁰₂ was estimated to be ?3.9₁ ± 0.8₆ and 0.6 ± 2.4 kJ/mol at 25 and 50°C, respectively. The abundance of carbonate linked Mg(II) species in fresh water systems is discussed.     

Flüssige Phasen im migmatitisehen Lauterbrunner-Kristallin (Aarmassiv,Alpen)

During boudinage of competent, amphibolitic layers in the Lauterbrunner Crystalline Complex a pegmatitic liquid phase filled the cross-fractures and other areas of reduced pressure (“hetero-kinetic” spaces according toSander, 1950, p. 306) between the boudins. The mobile components were derived from the adjacent incompetent rocks as well as the apatite rich boudins. The habit of the stubby apatite within the amphibolitic boudins is markedly different from the slender apatite needles which grew in the pegmatitic liquid between the boudins. Various authors, on the basis of microscopic observations and experimental work, propose that acicular apatite crystals cannot be used as a criterion for crystallization from a high temperature magmatic phase. Investigations in the Lauterbrunner Crystalline Complex suggest that acicular apatites have grown in a low temperature liquid phase.     

Compositions and taxonomy of 15 unusual carbonaceous chondrites

Abstract– We used instrumental neutron activation analysis and petrography to determine bulk and phase compositions and textural characteristics of 15 carbonaceous chondrites of uncertain classification: Acfer 094 (type 3.0, ungrouped CM‐related); Belgica‐7904 (mildly metamorphosed, anomalous, CM‐like chondrite, possibly a member of a new grouplet that includes Wisconsin Range (WIS) 91600, Dhofar 225, and Yamato‐86720); Dar al Gani (DaG) 055 and its paired specimen DaG 056 (anomalous, reduced CV3‐like); DaG 978 (type 3 ungrouped); Dominion Range 03238 (anomalous, magnetite‐rich CO3.1); Elephant Moraine 90043 (anomalous, magnetite‐bearing CO3); Graves Nunataks 98025 (type 2 or type 3 ungrouped); Grosvenor Mountains (GRO) 95566 (anomalous CM2 with a low degree of aqueous alteration); Hammadah al Hamra (HaH) 073 (type 4 ungrouped, possibly related to the Coolidge‐Loongana [C‐L] 001 grouplet); Lewis Cliff (LEW) 85311 (anomalous CM2 with a low degree of aqueous alteration); Northwest Africa 1152 (anomalous CV3); Pecora Escarpment (PCA) 91008 (anomalous, metamorphosed CM); Queen Alexandra Range 99038 (type 2 ungrouped); Sahara 00182 (type 3 ungrouped, possibly related to HaH 073 and/or to C‐L 001); and WIS 91600 (mildly metamorphosed, anomalous, CM‐like chondrite, possibly a member of a new grouplet that includes Belgica‐7904, Dhofar 225, and Y‐86720). Many of these meteorites show fractionated abundance patterns, especially among the volatile elements. Impact volatilization and dehydration as well as elemental transport caused by terrestrial weathering are probably responsible for most of these compositional anomalies. The metamorphosed CM chondrites comprise two distinct clusters on the basis of their Δ¹⁷O values: approximately ?4‰ for PCA 91008, GRO 95566, DaG 978, and LEW 85311, and approximately 0‰ for Belgica‐7904 and WIS 91600. These six meteorites must have been derived from different asteroidal regions.     

Anthropogenic influence of trace metals in sediments of the Al-Qilt catchment,West Bank,Palestine: 1. Contamination factor and bonding forms

Al-Qilt catchment, located east of both the Ramallah and Jerusalem districts is strongly influenced by waste waters discharged from Israeli settlements and Palestinian urban centers. In this research, our aim was to verify the chemical status of the surface sediments from the Al-Qilt catchment during 2008/2009. For this purpose, 36 surface sediment samples were collected and analyzed with ICP/MS within the fraction of below 63 μm. The extent of contamination of trace metals from Al-Qilt sediments sites were measured by evaluating the contamination factors (CF) from digestion by aqua regia and additionally by sequential extraction steps using the BCR-method. On the basis of the calculated CF, sediments appear particularly contaminated with Zn, Cu, Ag, Sn, Cd, Hg, Bi, and B. Three regions, Wadi Sweanit, Ras Al-Qilt, and Qalandiah have been identified as critical points of contamination. Trace metal inputs to the Al-Qilt catchment need to be kept under strict control in the future since Ras Al-Qilt is considered as one of the important springs in the area and is used for domestic purposes. Moreover, it will be susceptible to pollution if no action is taken to decrease the pollution at the upstream of Al-Qilt.     

New Methodology to Characterize Shear Behavior of Joints by Combination of Direct Shear Box Testing and Numerical Simulations

A new procedure is presented, which combines big shear box tests on rocks and corresponding numerical simulations with explicit consideration of joint roughness to get deeper insight into the shear behavior of rock joints. The procedure consists of three parts: (1) constant normal load- or CNS-shear box tests with registration of shear- and normal-components of stress and displacements and deduction of basis rock mechanical parameters; (2) high resolution 3D-scanning of joint surface to deduce joint topography; and (3) set-up, run and evaluation of 3-dimensional numerical model with explicit duplication of joint roughness as back-analysis of shear box tests. The numerical back-analysis provides deeper insight into the joint behavior at the micro-scale. Several parameters can be deduced, like micro-slope angle distribution, aperture size distribution, local normal stress distribution and detailed analysis of dilation in relation to shear direction. The potential of the new procedure is illustrated exemplary by shear box tests on slate.     

Why the fundamental plane of black hole activity is not simply a distance driven artifact

The fundamental plane of black hole activity is a non-linear correlation among radio core luminosity, X-ray luminosity and mass of all accreting black holes, both of stellar mass and supermassive, found by Merloni et al. [Merloni, A., Heinz, S., di Matteo, T. 2003. MNRAS 345, 1057 (MHD03)] and, independently, by Falcke et al. [Falcke, H., Körding, E., Markoff, S., 2004. A& A 414, 895]. Here we further examine a number of statistical issues related to this correlation. In particular, we discuss the issue of sample selection and quantify the bias introduced by the effect of distance in two of the correlated quantities. We demonstrate that the fundamental plane relation cannot be a distance artifact, and that its non-linearity must represent an intrinsic characteristic of accreting black holes. We also discuss possible future observational strategies to improve our understanding of this correlation.