基于多模式集成技术的地面气温精细化预报

基于ECMWF、JMA、T639、WRF四个数值模式2012年6月1日—9月30日地面气温3—60 h预报资料和郑州加密自动站资料,利用多模式集合平均(EMN)、消除偏差集合平均(BREM)、加权消除偏差集合(WBREM)及多模式超级集合(SUP)4种方法,对2012年8月29日—9月27日郑州城区11个站点地面逐3 h气温进行多模式集成预报试验,采用绝对误差对预报结果进行检验评估,结果表明:在30天的预报期内,BREM、WBREM及SUP对于大多数站气温预报效果有明显改善,而EMN方案对11个站预报效果改善则不太明显;4种方案中,BREM和WBREM预报效果相对较好且稳定,各个站上3—60 h预报的绝对误差均在2℃附近或以下;SUP方案虽然对个别站预报误差较低,但是其预报效果并不稳定,一些站点的个别预报时效误差大于2℃。对于郑州观测站的气温预报而言,4种集成方案20时起报的气温误差明显小于08时起报的误差,并且20时起报的SUP集成方案绝对误差明显小于其他方案的绝对误差。总体而言,BREM、WBREM及SUP三种集成方案能够给郑州精细化预报业务提供较好的参考。     

新疆西南部一次局地对流性暴雨成因分析

利用常规地面和探空气象资料、NCEP逐6h1°×1°的再分析资料和(CINRAD-CC)多普勒雷达探测资料,对2012年7月19日新疆阿图什罕见的短时对流性暴雨形成原因进行了诊断分析。结果表明:此次天气是在南疆低涡有利的环流背景下、低层中尺度低涡促进上升运动及触发不稳定能量释放产生的;冷空气的入侵是造成对流扰动发展的重要原因,同时地面小尺度系统对触发不稳定能量释放也有一定的作用;涡散场的配置、垂直速度、低层偏东急流和强不稳定能量满足了对流发生的基本条件,而较强的垂直风切变则使风暴明显增强;从喀什探空订正图来看,修正后的探空资料中各要素对开展强对流潜势预报有很好的指示意义,有待进一步总结验证;对多普勒雷达资料的分析表明,此次强降水具有强回波、强的垂直风切变、大的垂直液态水含量和较高回波顶高等,与强对流天气的发生发展及落区有较好的对应关系。     

准噶尔盆地油气源、油气分布与油气系统

准噶尔盆地是中国西部典型的多旋回叠合盆地,发育有石炭系、二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系、白垩系和古近系6套烃源岩,同时存在6大类原油和3大类天然气,广泛分布于盆地不同地区。西北缘原油总体相似,碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰),胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、三环萜烷、伽马蜡烷丰富,甾烷以C_(28)、C_(29)为主,基本没有重排甾烷,为第二类原油,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩。腹部绝大多数原油与西北缘原油相似,但胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、伽马蜡烷等有差异,来源于不同凹陷的二叠系湖相烃源岩;少量原油碳同位素组成重(δ~(13)C-28‰~-26‰),Pr/Ph大于2.5,三环萜烷以C_(19)、C_(20)为主,藿烷丰富而伽马蜡烷极低,以C_(29)规则甾烷及重排甾烷为主,为第四类原油,来源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩。东部存在5种类型原油,第一类原油碳同位素组成特别重(δ~(13)C-26‰),来源于石炭系烃源岩;第二类原油与腹部地区绝大多数原油十分相似,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩;第三类原油碳同位索组成轻,重排甾烷、Ts、C_(29)Ts及C_(30)重排藿烷异常丰富,来源于中上三叠统湖相烃源岩;第四类原油源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩;混合类原油为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系原油的混合,各自贡献平均分别为20%、15%和65%。南缘存在4类典型原油,为第二、第四、第五和第六类原油,其中第二、第四类分别源于二叠系和侏罗系;第五类原油碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰)、Pr/Ph1.0、伽马蜡烷丰富且有两个异构体、Ts、C_(29)Ts、C_(30)重排藿烷、C_(27)~C_(29)异胆甾烷及C_(30)甲基甾烷丰富,来源于白垩系湖相烃源岩;第六类原油主要为中低成熟原油,碳同位素组成δ~(13)C~28‰~-26‰,C_(27)、C_(28)、C_(29)甾烷呈"V"型分布,甲藻甾烷异常丰富,来源于古近系湖相烃源岩。准噶尔盆地天然气有油型气、混合气和煤型气,前两类主要来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩和石炭系海相烃源岩,煤型气主要来源于石炭系和侏罗系煤系烃源岩。不同类型油气分布与不同时代烃源灶具有良好对应关系:石炭系油气主要分布于陆东-五彩湾;二叠系油气主要分布于西北缘、腹部与东部;三叠系原油仅分布于东部;侏罗系原油主要分布于东部与南部;白垩系原油仅分布于南缘中部;古近系原油仅分布于南缘西部。按照盆地构造特征及不同时代烃源灶与油气关系,将准噶尔盆地划分为西部、中部、东部、南部及乌伦古5个油气系统及15个子油气系统。     

Is the long-term variation of the estimated GPS differential code biases associated with ionospheric variability?

The global positioning system (GPS) differential code biases (DCB) provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) show solar-cycle-like variation during 2002–2013. This study is to examine whether this variation of the GPS DCBs is associated with ionospheric variability. The GPS observations from low earth orbit (LEO) satellites including CHAMP, GRACE and Jason-1 are used to address this issue. The GPS DCBs estimated from the LEO-based observations at different orbit altitudes show a similar tendency as the IGS DCBs. However, this solar-cycle-like dependency is eliminated when the DCBs of 13 continuously operating GPS satellites are constrained to zero-mean. Our results thus revealed that ionospheric variation is not responsible for the long-term variation of the GPS DCBs. Instead, it is attributed to the GPS satellite replacement with different satellite types and the zero-mean condition imposed on all satellite DCBs.     

Shale Gas Formation and Occurrence in China: An Overview of the Current Status and Future Potential

Shale gas is one of the most promising unconventional resources both in China and abroad. It is known as a form of self-contained source-reservoir system with large and continuous dimensions. Through years of considerable exploration efforts, China has identified three large shale gas fields in the Fuling, Changning and Weiyuan areas of the Sichuan Basin, and has announced more than 540 billion m~3 of proven shale gas reserves in marine shale systems. The geological theories for shale gas development have progressed rapidly in China as well. For example, the new depositional patterns have been introduced for deciphering the paleogeography and sedimentary systems of the Wufeng shale and Longmaxi shale in the Sichuan Basin. The shale gas storage mechanism has been widely accepted as differing from conventional natural gas in that it is adsorbed on organic matter or a mineral surface or occurs as free gas trapped in pores and fractures of the shale. Significant advances in the techniques of microstructural characterization have provided new insights on how gas molecules are stored in micro- and nano-scale porous shales. Furthermore, newly-developed concepts and practices in the petroleum industry, such as hydraulic fracturing, microseismic monitoring and multiwell horizontal drilling, have made the production of this unevenly distributed but promising unconventional natural gas a reality. China has 10–36 trillion m~3 of promising shale gas among the world's whole predicted technically recoverable reserves of 206.6 trillion m~3. China is on the way to achieving its goal of an annual yield of 30–50 billion m~3 by launching more trials within shale gas projects.     

Characteristics and Origin of Tight Oil Accumulations in the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin, North-Central China

The Upper Triassic oil accumulations in the Ordos Basin is the most successful tight oil play in China,with average porosity values of less than 10% and permeability values below 1.0 mD.This study investigated the geological characteristics and origin of the tight oil accumulations in the Chang 6 member of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Shanbei area based on over 50,000 petrological,source-rock analysis,well logging and production data.The tight oil accumulation of the Chang 6 member is distributed continuously in the basin slope and the centre of the basin.The oilwater relationships are complex.Laumontite dissolution pores are the most important storage spaces,constituting 30%-60% of total porosity and showing a strong positive relationship with oil production.The pore-throat diameter is less than 1 μm,and the calculated critical height of the oil column is much larger than the tight sand thickness,suggesting that the buoyancy was probably of limited importance for oil migration.The pressure difference between the source rocks and sandstone reservoirs is inferred to have provided driving force for hydrocarbon migration.Two factors of source-reservoir configuration and laumontite dissolution contributed to the formation of the Chang 6 tight oil accumulations.Intense hydrocarbon generation and continuous sand bodies close to the hydrocarbon kitchen are the foundation for the large-scale oil distribution.Dissolution of feldspar-laumontite during the process of organic matter evolution generated abundant secondary pores and improved the reservoir quality.     

钻探成本管理探析及实践

钻探行业经过十年的繁荣时期,受市场影响发展过于迅速,为追求生产效益而忽视了相应的管理。而今,面对市场份额少、价格低、成本高、竞争压力巨大的外部环境,钻探企业如何生存和发展,是企业必须面对的问题。本文通过分析钻探行业发展现状,揭露钻探成本管理方面的问题,总结钻探行业成本管理特点,运用工程项目成本管理的手段,通过实际举例、定性定量分析,探讨机台生产进行科学化管理的实施办法。     

浅析北京平原区热储温度与断裂关系

本文搜集了38个水样点的水化学数据,这些水样点位于北京平原区的5个地热田。水样点的取水层位均为蓟县系雾迷山组,水样点揭露的地热水均属于同一个含水系统。根据水化学类型分析,该含水系统地下热水径流方向由西北、西南部向东部流动。利用Na-K-Mg三角图和饱和指数选取合适的地热温标,估算了各水样点的热储温度范围。热储温度的空间分布形态呈现北东向为长轴方向的椭圆形,与黄庄—高丽营断裂、良乡—前门断裂、八宝山断裂、顺义断裂、南口—孙河断裂和小汤山断裂等控热断裂有关,且北东向断裂对于温度的控制作用更大,热储温度在断裂交汇处出现高值区域,这些高值区域正是寻找地热的有利地区。     

Solar-, monsoon- and Kuroshio-influenced thermocline depth and sea surface salinity in the southern Okinawa Trough during the past 17,300 years

Factors influencing millennial-scale variability in the thermocline depth (vertical mixing) and sea surface salinity (SSS) of the southern Okinawa Trough (OT) during the past 17,300 years were investigated based on foraminifer oxygen isotope records of the surface dweller Globigerinoides ruber sensu stricto and the thermocline dweller Pulleniatina obliquiloculata in the AMS ¹⁴C dated OKT-3 core. The thermocline depth is influenced by surface thermal buoyancy (heat) flux, in turn controlled by the annual mean insolation at 30°N and the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Strong insolation and weak EAWM tend to increase buoyancy gain (decrease buoyancy loss), corresponding to shallow thermocline depths, and vice versa. Regional SSS is influenced by the global ice volume, the Kuroshio Current (KC), and vertical mixing. A deep thermocline coincides with a high SSS because strong vertical mixing brings more, saltier subsurface KC water to the surface, and vice versa. Local SSS (excluding the global ice volume effect) became lower in the northern OT than in the southern OT after ~9.2 ka, implying that Changjiang diluted water had stronger influence in the northern sector. SSS show no major changes during the Bølling/Allerød and Younger Dryas events, probably because the KC disturbed the North Atlantic signals. This argues against earlier interpretations of sea surface temperature records of this core. Wavelet and spectral analyses of the Δδ¹⁸O_P-G (δ¹⁸O of P. obliquiloculata minus G. ruber s.s.) and δ¹⁸O_local records display 1,540-, 1,480-, 1,050-, 860-, 640-, and 630-year periods. These are consistent with published evidence of a pervasive periodicity of 1,500 years in global climate as well as EAWM and KC signatures, and a fundamental solar periodicity of 1,000 years and intermediary derived periodicity of 700 years.     

夏季辽东湾西部海域大型底栖动物群落结构与多样性

为了解夏季辽东湾西部海域大型底栖动物群落结构与多样性,作者于2009年8月对六股河口外海域15个站位进行了大型底栖动物调查。整个研究海域共采到大型底栖动物124种,其总平均丰度为(2824±1537)个/m2,总平均生物量为(22.01±38.58)g/m2。利用相对重要性指数和优势度指数所确定的前三位优势种一致,分别为二齿半尖额涟虫(Hemileucon bidentatus)、深钩毛虫(Sigambra bassi)和独指虫(Aricidea fragilis),其余优势种存在细微差异。各站位香农-维纳多样性指数、Pielou均匀度指数和Margalef丰富度指数均呈现河口和中部海域低,近岸和外围海域高的分布规律。在50%相似度水平上,可将研究海域划分为4个群落。研究结果表明:研究海域底栖环境整体清洁,底层水环境因子对大型底栖动物群落的影响较弱。