Evaluation of reanalysis surface wind products with quality-assured buoy wind measurements along the north coast of the South China Sea

Three archived reanalysis wind vectors at 10 m height in the wind speed range of 2–15 m/s, namely, the second version of the National Centres for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSv2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Interim Reanalysis(ERA-I) and NCEPDepartment of Energy(DOE) Reanalysis 2(NCEP-2) products, are evaluated by a comparison with the winds measured by moored buoys in coastal regions of the South China Sea(SCS). The buoy data are first quality controlled by extensive techniques that help eliminate degraded measurements. The evaluation results reveal that the CFSv2 wind vectors are most consistent with the buoy winds(with average biases of 0.01 m/s and 1.76°). The ERA-I winds significantly underestimate the buoy wind speed(with an average bias of –1.57 m/s), while the statistical errors in the NCEP-2 wind direction have the largest magnitude. The diagnosis of the reanalysis wind errors shows the residuals of all three reanalysis wind speeds(reanalysis-buoy) decrease with increasing buoy wind speed, suggesting a narrower wind speed range than that of the observations. Moreover, wind direction errors are examined to depend on the magnitude of the wind speed and the wind speed biases. In general, the evaluation of three reanalysis wind products demonstrates that CFSv2 wind vectors are the closest to the winds along the north coast of the SCS and are sufficiently accurate to be used in numerical models.     

Seismic retrofit of MRF buildings using decentralized semi‐active control for multi‐target performances

Numerous structures have been designed and built without taking earthquake ground motions or outdated seismic design codes into account. In order to improve the seismic performance of existing structures, many retrofit approaches based on performance‐based design have been developed. However, some of these approaches are inapplicable due to structural limitations or because they were developed with the assumption of single‐degree‐of‐freedom, which does not take higher modes into account. To overcome the limitations of these traditional methods, a multi‐performance‐based control design (MPBCD) methodology has been proposed by integrating a decentralized semi‐active control algorithm, magnetorheological dampers, and an advanced multi‐objective optimization method to provide various sets of retrofit control designs to satisfy multiple target performances under multiple seismic intensities without changing structural cross‐section sizes or material properties. This MPBCD method provides engineers with numerous sets of control designs (i.e., control device layouts with control design parameters) to help them select proper control designs to retrofit existing building structures and improve seismic performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural Stimuli Calibration with Fining Direction Regularization in an Integrated Hydrologic Model

The interaction between surface water and groundwater during flood events is a complex process that has traditionally been described using simplified analytical solutions, or abstracted numerical models. To make the problem tractable, it is common to idealize the flood event, simplify river channel geometry, and ignore bank soil heterogeneity, often resulting in a model that only loosely represents the site, thus limiting its applicability to any specific river cross-section. In this study, we calibrate a site-specific fully-integrated surface and subsurface HydroGeoSphere model using flood events for a cross-section along the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The calibration approach presented in this study demonstrates the incorporation of fining direction regularization with a highly parameterized inversion driven by natural stimuli, to develop several realistic realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields that reflect the depositional history of the system. Specifically, we calibrate a model with 365 unique material zones to multiple flood events recorded in a dense well network while incorporating possible fining sequences consistent with the depositional history of the riverbank. Over 25,000 individual simulations were completed using calibration software and a cloud platform specifically designed for highly parallelized computing environments. The results of this study demonstrate the use of fining direction regularization during model calibration to generate multiple calibrated model realizations that account for the depositional environment of the system.     

2011年西北太平洋海平面异常及其与拉尼娜和负印度洋偶极子的联系

西北太平洋海平面异常模态在纯拉尼娜事件与拉尼娜和负印度洋偶极子（IOD）事件同时发生时表现出完全不同的形态。在纯拉尼娜事件期间，西北太平洋海平面呈现显著的正异常；而2010/2011拉尼娜事件期间西北太平洋海平面明显降低，呈显著的负异常，其与印度洋负IOD事件密切相关。研究结果表明，负IOD事件能在热带西太平洋驱动显著的西风异常，由此减弱了拉尼娜峰值期间西北太平洋海平面正异常。同时，在负IOD峰值期的9月，在日经线附近存在显著的风应力旋度正异常，激发负的海平面异常以Rossby波的形式向西传播，并在第二年6月抵达菲律宾以东海域，维持并加强该海域海平面负异常，进而对北赤道流分叉点位置及输运产生重要的影响。     

Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the TC activity around Taiwan

This study discovered that strong positive correlations exist between the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) during the summer around Taiwan and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the preceding March to May period. In positive AO years, during the preceding spring to summer period, anomalous cyclone and anomalous anticyclone were strongly developed at low and middle latitudes, respectively. Because of such a distribution of pressure system, in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan during the positive AO years, anomalous southeasterlies, which play the role of anomalous steering flows in transferring TCs to these regions, were strengthened. On the other hand, in southern China and the Indochina Peninsula during the positive AO years, anomalous northwesterlies, which prevent the transfer of TCs to these regions, were strengthened. Moreover, such a distribution of pressure system strengthening during the positive AO years led TCs to occur, move, and recurve more eastward in the western North Pacific in positive AO years as compared with the negative AO years. Contrarily, during the negative AO years, TCs showed the tendency to pass over the South China Sea from the Philippines and move west toward southern China and the Indochina Peninsula. Eventually, the intensity of TCs in these years was lower than that of TCs in positive AO years due to the topographic effects from a high TC passage frequency in mainland China.     

基于PMCS图像数据的雨滴微物理特征研究

基于2015年降水微物理特征测量仪(PMCS)在南京地区获得的3次降水过程的雨滴图像资料,利用图像处理算法得到雨滴形状、尺度、轴比、倾斜角、垂直速度等特征参量,研究了雨滴的微物理特征空间分布规律。结果表明:直径较小的雨滴轮廓呈圆环状,随着粒子直径增加,雨滴轮廓呈现出椭圆形和底部扁平顶部凸起状。PMCS测得的雨滴轴比—直径拟合关系同经验模型相比误差较小,雨滴轴比概率分布呈现高斯分布特征。雨滴倾斜角分布于0°两侧,方差为15.9°,小雨滴倾斜角受湍流影响较大,摆动范围较大。雨滴垂直速度随直径增大而增大,垂直速度拟合曲线同Atlas速度经验模型分布较为一致。     

Characteristics of the changes in tropical cyclones influencing the South Korean region over the recent 10 years (2001–2010)

Through the investigation of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics related to climate change, this study found that the frequency of TCs occurring over the Western North Pacific has recently decreased slightly, while their average intensity has increased. The number of overall TCs that passed within the vicinity of South Korea has also been reduced, but the number of strong typhoons in the area, those with maximum wind speeds of more than 44 m/s, has significantly increased. These changes are closely related to the following phenomena. (1) The average genesis region of TCs that influence South Korea has moved eastward. Accordingly, the TCs tend to strengthen as they move westward for long distances along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) trade easterlies and the southern boundary of the North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH). (2) The NPSH and Asia Monsoon trough, which are known to affect TC tracks, have extended to the northwest and southeast. This has caused TCs that travel to higher latitudes and curve back toward the Korean Peninsula to become more frequent. (3) TCs have approached the Korean Peninsula without hitting land. In addition, the sea surface temperature became higher than it was before. These factors have caused TCs to maintain their strength or become stronger than before.     

A Periodicity Analysis of the Light Curve of 3C 454.3

We analyzed the radio light curves of 3C 454.3 at frequencies 22 and 37 GHz taken from the database of Metsahovi Radio Observatory, and found evidence of quasi-periodic activity. The light curves show great activity with very complicated non-sinusoidal variations. Two possible periods, a very weak one of 1.57±0.12 yr and a very strong one of 6.15±0.50 yr were consistently identified by two methods, the Jurkevich method and power spectrum estimation. The period of 6.15±0.50 yr is consistent with results previously reported by Ciaramella et al. and Webb et al. Applying the binary black hole model to the central structure we found black hole masses of 1.53×109M⊙and 1.86×108M⊙, and predicted that the next radio outburst is to take place in 2006 March and April.