山东一次区域性暴雨中尺度特征分析

利用常规资料、地面自动站资料、FY2C卫星云图TBB和多普勒天气雷达资料,对2009年5月9—10日发生在山东的春季区域性暴雨进行分析和研究。结果表明:①强降水是在低层冷空气和深厚西南暖湿气流交汇的过程中产生的,副高异常偏强,制约850～700hPa切变线和地面辐合线停滞少动,产生较长时间的降水。②地面辐合线的形成和维持激发了边界层的辐合上升运动,为暴雨区提供了充足的水汽,冷空气从边界层楔入,与暖湿气流汇合并抬升暖湿气流辐合上升,使上升运动加强,降水增幅。③中尺度对流系统是造成暴雨的主要中尺度系统,多个单体更迭并移经同一区域,形成"列车效应"而产生区域性暴雨。④雷达径向速度图中逆风区和不同高度(超)低空急流的大小对短时强降水预报有一定的指示意义。     

Observed particle sizes and fluxes of Aeolian sediment in the near surface layer during sand-dust storms in the Taklamakan Desert

Monitoring, modeling and predicting the formation and movement of dust storms across the global deserts has drawn great attention in recent decades. Nevertheless, the scarcity of real-time observations of the wind-driven emission, transport and deposition of dusts has severely impeded progress in this area. In this study, we report an observational analysis of sand-dust storm samples collected at seven vertical levels from an 80-m-high flux tower located in the hinterland of the great Taklamakan Desert for ten sand-dust storm events that occurred during 2008–2010. We analyzed the vertical distribution of sandstorm particle grain sizes and horizontal sand-dust sediment fluxes from the near surface up to 80 m high in this extremely harsh but highly representative environment. The results showed that the average sandstorm grain size was in the range of 70 to 85 μm. With the natural presence of sand dunes and valleys, the horizontal dust flux appeared to increase with height within the lower surface layer, but was almost invariant above 32 m. The average flux values varied within the range of 8 to 14 kg m^?2 and the vertical distribution was dominated by the wind speed in the boundary layer. The dominant dust particle size was PM₁₀₀ and below, which on average accounted for 60–80 % of the samples collected, with 0.9–2.5 % for PM_0–2.5, 3.5–7.0 % for PM_0–10, 5.0–14.0 % for PM_0–20 and 20.0–40.0 % for PM_0–50. The observations suggested that on average the sand-dust vertical flux potential is about 0.29 kg m^?2 from the top of the 80 m tower to the upper planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere through the transport of particles smaller than PM₂₀. Some of our results differed from previous measurements from other desert surfaces and laboratory wind-dust experiments, and therefore provide valuable observations to support further improvement of modeling of sandstorms across different natural environmental conditions.     

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

简论90年代以色列的经济政策

现代以色列经济是外向型经济。90年代以来,中东和平进程在前进,以色列经济在发展,工党政府和利库德集团政府都把进一步改革开放、奠定以色列的中东经济强国地位作为主要目标,为此,制定了推进私有化、吸引外资、扩大对外贸易的政策以及一系列相关政策,对以色列经济的现状和将来有着重大影响,也对中东区域经济的发展有着促进作用,同时也存在着某些问题。     

新疆西天山哈勒尕提-木祖克铁铜铅锌矿床地质特征及成矿条件分析

哈勒尕提-木祖克铁铜铅锌矿床是近年来在新疆西天山博罗科努成矿带内发现的一处典型的矽卡岩型铜多金属矿床,目前为中型规模,有达到大型矿床的潜力。矿体赋存于大瓦布拉克岩体与上奥陶统呼独克达坂组(O3h)大理岩、大理岩化灰岩的接触带。成矿受岩浆岩、地层岩性和接触带构造"三位一体"联合控制。大瓦布拉克岩体主要岩性为二长花岗岩和花岗闪长岩,岩石地球化学显示高硅、准铝、低镁、富碱、富钾,为I型花岗岩,富集大离子亲石元素,相对亏损高场强元素,具俯冲带岩浆岩的地球化学特点。呼独克达坂组(O3h)碳酸盐岩地球化学性质活泼且富含铜、锌,有利于含矿热液交代成矿,是区域找矿的优势层位。接触带构造既是成矿地球化学障,又是良好的成矿热液运移通道,直接控制着矿体的产出。     

松科1井南孔选址、岩心剖面特征与特殊岩性层的分布

松科1井南孔是松辽盆地白垩系科学钻探工程两个钻孔中的一个,位于松辽盆地北部中央坳陷区齐家古龙凹陷敖南鼻状构造的翼部。通过对松科1井南孔嫩二段底部到泉三段顶部连续取心资料的详细描述,建立松科1井南孔岩心剖面,识别出5种常见岩性(泥岩、粉砂质泥岩、泥质粉砂岩、粉砂岩和细砂岩)和8种特殊岩性(白云岩、火山灰、油页岩、灰质泥岩、泥灰岩、重结晶灰岩、介形虫碎屑灰岩和介形虫灰岩)。特殊岩性出现的总层数为172层,总厚度为14.516m,分布在青一段,青二、三段,姚二、三段,嫩一段和嫩二段地层中。对松科1井的精细岩心描述和对特殊岩性的识别是后续研究工作开展的基础。     

川西石棉地区田湾与扁路岗岩体的锆石U-Pb定年

对扬子板块西缘石棉地区田湾闪长岩体与扁路岗花岗岩体开展了精细的单颗粒锆石Ｕ－Ｐｂ年代学研究。测试结果表明,田湾岩体中锆石的结晶年龄为８２３Ｍａ±１２Ｍａ,扁路岗岩体中锆石的结晶年龄为８７６Ｍａ±４０Ｍａ,表明石棉地区与扬子板块西缘其他地区一样,晋宁期岩浆活动也是相当强烈的。     

湖南太阳山隆起区断层活动性研究

湖南省太阳山地区是洞庭湖西缘一个晚新生代时期隆起的低山丘陵区,山体走向为北北东方向,自南向北斜列展布了太阳山低山区和凤凰山低山区,二者之间为北北东向大龙站谷地.通过对该地区现有6条断层活动性的地质调查,获得了位于大龙站谷地东侧的肖伍铺断层断错中更新世晚期,距今12.3±1.O万年地层的地质证据,为中更新世晚期至晚更新世早期有活动的断层,表现为逆冲活动的性质.根据岗市-河袱断层带发育的断层泥及其测年结果可知,该断层可能在中更新世中期有过活动.其余4条断层没有第四纪以来活动的地质地貌表现,属于前第四纪断层.上述研究结果对认识1631年太阳山63/4级地震的发震构造是有意义的.