A clear and present danger: Ladakh's increasing vulnerability to flash floods and debris flows

This preliminary investigation of the recent spate of deadly flash floods and debris flows in Ladakh (India) over the last decade identifies uncontrolled development in hazardous locations as an important factor contributing to loss of life and property damage in this high mountain desert. The sediments exposed in the channel banks and on the alluvial fans of several mountain streams in the area indicate a long history of flash floods and debris flows resulting from intense storms, which appear to have increased in frequency within the last decade. The signposts of these recurrent hazards are being ignored as a growing economy, which is boosted by a well‐established tourism industry, is now driving development onto lands that are susceptible to floods and debris flow hazards. In this science briefing we argue that the increasing vulnerability in Ladakh should be addressed with sound disaster governance strategies that are proactive, rather than reactionary. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用高应变法确定预制桩承载力的拟合参数

采用高应变法确定预制桩承载力时,通过拟合得到的承载力具有多解性。因此提出了拟合参数的选取不一定要限定在规定的范围内,同时还 要根据预制桩设计参数、施工工艺或土体工程性质来选取拟合参数,解读高应变曲线,这样才能得到符合实际情况的预制桩承载力。     

A global regularisation for integrating the Caledonian symmetric four-body problem

Several papers in the last decade have studied the Caledonian symmetric four-body problem (CSFBP), a restricted four-body system with a symmetrically reduced phase space. During these studies, difficulties have arisen when the system approaches a close encounter. These are due to collision singularities causing numerical integration algorithms to fail. In this paper, we give the full details of a regularisation approach that now enables us to study these close encounters and collision events. The resulting equations of motion can be efficiently integrated by a high-order integrator. The results from numerical testing of the algorithm verify that the regularisation is advantageous in preserving numerical stability. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated for a range of CSFBP orbits. Numerical experiments show that the newly developed regularisation algorithm has excellent energy conservation properties.     

The 30–60-day oscillation in the East Asian summer monsoon and its time-dependent association with the ENSO

Based on 30–60-day oscillation in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the relationship between its northward propagation and ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) was investigated. To explicitly describe the 30–60-day monsoonal evolution, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was carried out on the temporal-latitude section of the longitudinal average for 115°E–120°E. The principal 30–60-day EASM mode captures a northward propagation of well-organized intraseasonal oscillation (NISO). Using the associated time series of the first mode, we found a significant lagged correlation between interannual variability of the NISO and ENSO. Its lagged correlations with NINO indices have a quasi-biennial (QB) characteristic through the preceding summer and the concurrent summer. Their relationship was found by the regression analysis relating the low-level circulation to the ocean temperature. The western North Pacific anticyclone and the anticyclone-induced easterly vertical wind shear anomalies induce the dynamical linkage between the NISO and QB-type ENSO. It is shown that the NISO is more closely tied with QB-type ENSO in its phase than in its amplitude, and may be connected to the anomalous easterly wind and the eastward evolution of an oceanic Kelvin wave, which is associated with abrupt ENSO transition. The predictability on ENSO and NISO is examined through the canonical correlation analysis.     

A Family of Symmetrical Schubart-Like Interplay Orbits and their Stability in the One-Dimensional Four-Body Problem

We locate members of an important category of periodic orbits in the Newtonian four-body problem. These systems perform an interplay motion similar to that of the periodic three-body orbit discovered by Schubart. Such orbits, when stable, have been shown to be a key feature and influence on the dynamics of few-body systems. We consider the restricted case where the masses are collinear and are distributed symmetrically about their centre of mass. A family of orbits is generated from the known (three-dimensionally) unstable equal masses case by varying the mass ratio, whilst maintaining the symmetry. The stability of these orbits to perturbation is studied using linear stability analysis, analytical approximation of limiting cases and nonlinear simulation. We answer the natural question: are there any stable periodic orbits of this kind? Three ranges of the mass ratio are found to have stable orbits and three ranges have unstable orbits for three-dimensional motion. The systems closely resemble their three-body counterparts. Here the family of interplay orbits is simpler requiring just one parameter to characterise the mass ratio. Our results provide a further insight into three-body orbits studied previously.     

Hydroclimate risk to economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa

In order to plan strategies for adaptation to climate change, the current effects of climate on economic growth need to be understood. This study reviews evidence of climate effects on economic growth and presents original analysis of the effect in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Case studies from the literature demonstrate that historically, climate has had significant and negative effects on household income, agricultural productivity and economic growth in SSA. This study focuses on the effects hydroclimatic variability on economic growth in the countries of SSA. We utilize a new national level precipitation statistic that incorporates spatial and temporal variability within each country. Country level economic growth statistics are analyzed in panel regressions. Persistent negative precipitation anomalies (drought) are found to be the most significant climate influence on GDP per capita growth. Temperature and precipitation variability show significant effects in some cases. Results imply the consideration of hydroclimatic risks, namely drought, may be the priority concern for adaptation to a changing climate for Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion is contrary to the premise of many climate change impact assessments that focus on temperature increases as the primary concern.     

一株脂肽产生菌发酵参数的响应曲面法优化

从渤海污染土壤中分离的表面活性剂产生菌,经鉴定为Bacillus sp.BO2,该菌在对数生长期产生表面活性剂,至稳定期后可将发酵液的表面张力降低至31.0 mN·m1.初步分析发现其表面活性剂成分为环脂肽,该脂肽在不同温度、盐度、pH条件下有较好的稳定性.进一步采用响应曲面法(RSM),以乳化系数作为响应值来优化菌株BO2产生物表面活性剂培养条件.还通过实验确定碳源(液体石蜡)、NH4NO3、KH2PO4为3个影响表面活性剂产量的显著因素,再进行发酵培养基优化,获得最佳培养基配方.获得的发酵参数为利用该菌株发酵生产生物表面活性剂提供数据,为石油降解菌的应用开发提供了有价值的信息.     

Improving the Analyses and Forecasts of a Tropical Squall Line Using Upper Tropospheric Infrared Satellite Observations

The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.