Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

The effects of kinetic sorting on sediment mobility on steep slopes

In poorly mobile static armour, sorting is usually considered the result of hiding/exposure effects. We called this effect ‘static sorting’ in opposition to very efficient grain‐to‐grain mechanisms produced by a mobile mixture, called ‘kinetic sorting’. We hypothesized that kinetic sorting can be an important contributor to the morphodynamics of mountain streams and attempted to demonstrate this with new flume experiments. Two long runs were produced with natural poorly sorted sediments, and with transport stages of the coarse fraction (defined by the ratio between the shear stress and the critical shear stress for transport), smaller and higher than 1, respectively. Both runs produced an efficient transfer downstream of the injected material, but with a major difference: the first run (no kinetic sorting) produced permanent armour figuring clusters, akin to what has already been observed in similar experiments; the second run (with kinetic sorting) also produced bed armouring, but this armour was periodically totally destroyed, leading to substantial bed erosion. This phenomenon was explained by kinetic sorting, the effects of which are to produce an efficient downward migration of fine materials and bed surface armouring. The consequence is that fine materials are hidden to the flow during aggradation, allowing the slope to attain values much steeper than would have been expected at equilibrium for the mixture. However, whereas the surface armouring tends to stabilize the bed, construction of a layer of fine sediments at the subsurface also contributes to making it very unstable. These two contradictory effects explain the complex bed behaviours and the existence of very large bedload and slope fluctuations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gamma-ray monitoring of sediment consolidation tests

A gamma-ray transmission method is discussed for measuring the water content of marine sediment samples during consolidation testing. This method permits obtaining consolidation curves for sediment cores while still in the core liner, thereby eliminating several sources of sample disturbance. A narrow beam of gamma-rays is passed through the sample to a detector and counting equipment. The attenuation of this beam is a function of the sample density and hence water content or void-ratio. Equations are developed for calculating water content from gamma-counts. The results of experiments are presented confirming the validity of these equations.     

Sediment delivery processes and the spatial distribution of caesium-137 in a small Sicilian basin

The sediment delivery processes occurring in a small Sicilian basin are modelled using the spatially distributed SEDD model recently proposed by Ferro and Minacapilli. The model is applied by using soil data (grain-size distribution, organic matter content, etc.) of 129 samples uniformly distributed over the study area and compiling the available information (topographic map, soil data, etc.) into a Geographical Information System. Finally, the predictive capability of the distributed sediment delivery approach is tested experimentally using the caesium-137 measurement technique. The comparison between calculated sediment yield and the corresponding measured caesium-137 loss is used to validate the SEDD model at the scale of both the single morphological unit and the entire basin. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m². These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.     

Field investigation on rilling in the experimental Sparacia area,South Italy

In this paper the results of a field investigation on rilling carried out in the experimental Sparacia area are reported. The measurements were made on a plot 6 m wide and 22 m long subjected to natural rainfalls. For ten rainfalls the total soil loss (interrill and rill erosion) was collected in a storage system consisting of two tanks arranged in series at the base of the plot. Rill morphology (rill length and cross‐sections) was measured for five rainfall events, while the rill profile was surveyed for three events. First the contribution of each component (rill and interrill erosion) to total soil loss was established. Then the analysis allowed establishment of a power relationship between the rill length and the rill volume. Finally, for three events detailed information on rill erosion and rill morphology allowed verification of the applicability of WEPP and estimation of the rill erodibility constant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing slope effect on flow resistance equation for mobile bed rills

In this paper, a recently theoretically deduced rill flow resistance equation, based on a power‐velocity profile, is tested experimentally on plots of varying slopes in which mobile bed rills are incised. Initially, measurements of flow velocity, water depth, cross‐sectional area, wetted perimeter and bed slope conducted in 106 reaches of rills incised on an experimental plot having a slope of 14% were used to calibrate the flow resistance equation. Then, the relationship between the velocity profile parameter Γ, the channel slope, and the flow Froude number, which was calibrated using the 106 rill reach data, was tested using measurements carried out in plots having slopes of 22% and 9%. The measurements carried out in the latter slope conditions confirmed that (a) the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor can be accurately estimated using the proposed theoretical approach, and (b) the data were supportive of the slope independence hypothesis of rill velocity stated by Govers.     

Comment on “Overland runoff erosion dynamics on steep slopes with forages under field simulated rainfall and inflow by C. Li and C. Pan”

Managing sloping landscapes to control soil erosion processes due to rainfall and runoff is a relevant problem, especially when the vegetation is absent or sparse. The aim of this paper was to investigate the applicability of a theoretically resistance law for overland flow under simulated rainfall, based on a power-velocity profile, using field measurements carried out by Li and Pan for three plots with planted forage species (Astragalus adsurgens, Medicago sativa and Cosmos bipinnatus).The relationship between the velocity profile parameter Γ, the flow Froude number and the rain Reynolds number was calibrated using the data by Li and Pan. The obtained overland flow resistance law was also verified by independent field measurements carried out by Li and Pan in the same plots with the same forage species subjected to three different treatments (intact grass control IG, no litter or leaves NLL (only the grass stems and roots were reserved) and only roots remaining OR). The theoretical approach and the measurements carried out in the investigated conditions allowed to state that a) the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor can be accurately estimated using the proposed theoretical approach, b) the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor varies with rainfall intensity and c) for the investigated forage species, the vegetation treatment (IG, NLL, OR) does not significantly affect the flow resistance in laminar regime.     

Variable power‐law scaling of hillslope Hortonian rainfall–runoff processes

Hydrological studies focused on Hortonian rainfall–run‐off scaling have found that the run‐off depth generally declines with the plot length in power‐law scaling. Both the power‐law proportional coefficient and the scaling exponent show great variability for specific conditions, but why and how they vary remain unclear. In the present study, the scaling of hillslope Hortonian rainfall–run‐off processes is investigated for different rainfall, soil infiltration, and hillslope surface characteristics using the physically based cell‐based rainfall‐infiltration‐run‐off model. The results show that both temporally intermittent and steady rainfalls can result in prominent power‐law scaling at the initial stage of run‐off generation. Then, the magnitude of the power‐law scaling decreases gradually due to the decreasing run‐on effect. The power‐law scaling is most sensitive to the rainfall and soil infiltration parameters. When the ratio of rainfall to infiltration exceeds a critical value, the magnitude of the power‐law scaling tends to decrease notably. For different intermittent rainfall patterns, the power‐law exponent varies in the range of ?1.0 to ?0.113, which shows an approximately logarithmic increasing trend for the proportional coefficient as a function of the run‐off coefficient. The scaling is also sensitive to the surface roughness, soil sealing, slope angle, and hillslope geometry because these factors control the run‐off routing and run‐on infiltration processes. These results provide insights into the variable scaling of the Hortonian rainfall–run‐off process, which are expected to benefit modelling of large‐scale hydrological and ecological processes.