1998年夏季长江流域大气季节内振荡的结构演变及其对降水的影响

利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强的ISO活动。利用位相合成方法,对长江流域两个典型的季节内循环周期的ISO降水、850 hPa水平风场以及水汽和垂直速度等循环过程的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析。在低频环流场上,对流层低层的低频气旋和反气旋环流表现出交替在热带西北太平洋增强并向西偏北方向移动发展的特征,当异常气旋环流移动到长江流域上空时,长江流域正好位于气旋环流西南侧的东北风异常和西北太平洋上向西移动的反气旋环流西北侧的西南风异常环流汇合处的下方,引起该地区强降水的发生。在强降水阶段的ISO的垂直结构上,上升运动和水汽表现出从华南到长江流域自南向北移动的特征,强烈的垂直上升运动以及来自南方充足的水汽为增强长江流域地区的降水起到了重要作用。     

How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin (MLYRB) suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020, with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks. How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020 (hereafter 2020PHR-like event) would change under global warming is investigated. An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer (Rx35day) is introduced. This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60% stronger than the climatology, and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event. The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble (MME) of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming. Based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnoff test, one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios (CMIP5 RCP4.5, CMIP6 SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5) and 3–5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios (3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5, 2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0, and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5). The inter-model spread of the probability change is small, lending confidence to the projection results. The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.     

Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in June-July (JJ) 2020. An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia. A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Ni?a-like SST anomaly (SSTA) forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Different from conventional central Pacific (CP) El Ni?os that decay slowly, a CP El Ni?o in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Ni?a by early summer. This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC. Meanwhile, an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Ni?o was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component. Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC. The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes, driven by combined heating anomalies over India, the tropical eastern Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic.     

Effects of perturbation type on tropical cyclone size over tropical North Western Pacific and Atlantic

Climate Dynamics - In authors’ previous studies, the role of distinctive mean states in the western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) in affecting tropical cyclone (TC) size was...     

Evaluating social capital in emergency and disaster management and hazards plans

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards and disasters pose a serious threat to society. Efficient hazard plans are a county’s prerequisite in preparing for potential disasters and serve as primary...     

The application of cascading consequences for emergency management operations

How societies organize themselves to respond to cascading impacts exacerbated by climate change will help define the future of disaster planning, mitigation, response, and recovery. Current emergency management risk analyses focus on identifying a broad array of threats and hazards that may affect an area. However, there is limited attention and understanding of the totality of hazard impacts, the relationship of consequences across disasters, and the dangers of not addressing critical capabilities necessary to rapidly managing consequences—including the potential to create new incidents within incidents. Through a focused review of the related literature and guiding policy documents, this study aims to provide a cascading consequence-based framework that can support emergency managers in the analysis of their jurisdictional risks, development of emergency operations plans, and decision-making. Results include the identification of an alternative framework to identify cascading networks, the creation of a supplementary model for downstream risk assessment, and refined Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis (THIRA) outputs for improved grant allocation. The proposed framework has the potential to help organizations factor both conspicuous and downstream consequences into their Emergency Operations Plans in the planning and mitigations phases. This proposed refinement, which looks deeper into the progression of a disaster, has both national and international implications.

     

Coastal curios? An analysis of ex situ beach finds for mapping new Palaeolithic sites at Happisburgh,UK

Recent archaeological discoveries from exposures of the Cromer Forest-bed Formation at Happisburgh, UK, have radically changed interpretations of the nature and timing of early hominin occupation of northern latitudes, but this in situ archaeology is only one part of the picture. Surface finds of Pleistocene mammalian remains have been found along this coastline for centuries, with stone tools adding to this record over the past 7 years. The ex situ nature of these finds, however, means they are often seen as limited in the information they can provide. This work contributes to a growing body of research from a range of landscape and environmental contexts that seeks to demonstrate the value and importance of these ex situ assemblages. Here the focus is on Palaeolithic flint artefacts and Pleistocene mammalian remains recovered by a group of local collectors through systematic, GPS-recorded beach collection from 2013 to 2017, and their use in developing a methodology for working with ex situ Palaeolithic finds in coastal locations. The results demonstrate significant patterning that identifies unexplored exposures both onshore and offshore, considerably expanding the known extent of deposits and facilitating new insights into the wider archaeological landscape associated with the earliest occupation of northern Europe.