Probabilistic modelling of auto-correlation characteristics of heterogeneous slopes

Spatial variability of soil materials has long been recognised as an important factor influencing the reliability of geo-structures. This study stochastically investigates the influence of spatial variability of shear strength on the stability of heterogeneous slopes, focusing on the auto-correlation function, auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation between soil parameters. The finite element method is merged with the random field theory to probabilistically evaluate factor of safety and probability of failure via Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation procedure is explained in detail with suggestions on improving efficiency of the Monte-Carlo process. A simple procedure to create cross-correlation between random variables, which allows direct comparison of the influence of each strength variable, is discussed. The results show that the auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation can significantly influence slope stability, while the choice of auto-correlation function only has a minor effect. An equation relating the probability of failure with the auto-correlation distance is suggested in light of the analyses performed in this work and other results from the literature.     

飓风Juan(2003)路径附近实测飓风浪的谱特性研究

Hurricane Juan provides an excellent opportunity to probe into the detailed wave spectral patterns and spectral parameters of a hurricane system, with enough wave spectral observations around Juan＇s track in the deep ocean and shallow coastal water. In this study, Hurricane Juan and wave observation stations around Juan＇s track are introduced. Variations of wave composition are discussed and analyzed based on time series of one-dimensional frequency spectra, as well as wave steepness around Juan＇s track： before, during, and after Juan＇s passing. Wave spectral involvement is studied based on the observed one-dimensional spectra and two-dimensional spectra during the hurricane. The standardization method of the observed wave spectra during Hurricane Juan is discussed, and the standardized spectra show relatively conservative behavior, in spite of the huge variation in wave spectral energy, spectral peak, and peak frequency during this hurricane. Spectral widths＇ variation during Hurricane Juan are calculated and analyzed. A two-layer nesting WW3 model simulation is applied to simulate the one-dimensional and two-dimensional wave spectra, in order to examine WW3＇s ability in simulating detailed wave structure during Hurricane Juan.     

Phytoremediation of heavy metal‐contaminated water and sediment by Eleocharis acicularis

Phytoremediation is an environmental remediation technique that takes advantage of plant physiology and metabolism. The unique property of heavy metal hyperaccumulation by the macrophyte Eleocharis acicularis is of great significance in the phytoremediation of water and sediments contaminated by heavy metals at mine sites. In this study, a field cultivation experiment was performed to examine the applicability of E. acicularis to the remediation of water contaminated by heavy metals. The highest concentrations of heavy metals in the shoots of E. acicularis were 20 200 mg Cu/kg, 14 200 mg Zn/kg, 1740 mg As/kg, 894 mg Pb/kg, and 239 mg Cd/kg. The concentrations of Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb in the shoots correlate with their concentrations in the soil in a log‐linear fashion. The bioconcentration factor for these elements decreases log‐linearly with increasing concentration in the soil. The results indicate the ability of E. acicularis to hyperaccumulate Cu, Zn, As, and Cd under natural conditions, making it a good candidate species for the phytoremediation of water contaminated by heavy metals.     

A study of the connection between tropical cyclone track and intensity errors in the WRF model

This study examines the dependence of the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity errors on the track errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. By using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global final analysis as the initial and boundary conditions for cloud-resolving simulations of TC cases that have small track errors, it is found that the 2- and 3-day intensity errors in the North Atlantic basin can be reduced to 15 and 19 % when the track errors decrease to 55 and 76 %, respectively, whereas the 1-day intensity error shows no significant reduction despite more than 30 % decrease of the 1-day track error. For the North-Western Pacific basin, the percentage of intensity reduction is somewhat similar with the 2- and 3-day intensity errors improved by about 15 and 19 %, respectively. This suggests that future improvement of the TC track forecast skill in the WRF-ARW model will be beneficial to the intensity forecast. However, the substantially smaller percentages of intensity improvement than those of the track error improvement indicate that ambient environment tends to play a less important role in determining the TC intensity as compared to other factors related to the vortex initialization or physics representations in the WRF-ARW model.     

水电项目对越南硒圣河地区社会经济发展及环境保护的影响

硒圣河是湄公河的主要分支之一,其集水区地形条件和水资源量均对水电开发十分有利。此外,无论从物种多样性还是生物量来看,硒圣河水生生物资源非常丰富。鱼类是当地人们的重要食物来源,粗略估计鱼类物种数量可能在200-300种之间,目前具有详细记录的鱼类大约为120种。截至目前,从越南境内硒圣河上游至越-柬边界总共开发了6个水电项目,兴建了一座4A级硒圣调蓄水库。流经柬埔寨的硒圣河部分,依据发展规划将兴建3座水电站,即硒圣5号电站（硒圣1号电站以下）、硒圣3号电站、硒圣2号电站。硒圣河水电项目对区域（越南和柬埔寨）社会经济的影响体现在：为地处偏远和困难的集水区创造了新的能源资源,改善了交通系统和农村地区的生活条件。与此同时,这些水电项目也对该区域自然环境产生了重大影响。例如,改变了下游流动机理变化,导致下游河道淤积,对沿河生态系统也产生了一定影响。     

Detection of DCO+ in a circumstellar disk

We report the first detection of DCO⁺ in a circumstellar disk. The DCO⁺ J=5–4 line at 360.169 GHz is observed with the 15 m James Clerk Maxwell Telescope in the disk around the pre-main sequence star TW Hya. Together with measurements of the HCO⁺ and H¹³CO⁺ J=4–3 lines, this allows an accurate determination of the DCO⁺/HCO⁺ ratio in this disk. The inferred value of0.035±0.005 is close to that found in cold pre-stellar cores and is somewhat higher than that measured in the envelope around the low-mass proto star IRAS 16293-2422. It is also close to the DCN/HCN ratio obtained for pristine cometary material in the jet of comet Hale-Bopp. The observed DCO⁺/HCO⁺ ratio for TW Hya is consistent with theoretical models of disks which consider gas-phase fractionation processes within a realistic 2-D temperature distribution and which include the effects of freeze-out onto grains. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

High resolution spectra of galaxies

We present inversion techniques which aim at recovering the composite nature and the kinematics of a stellar population from its high resolution absorption line spectrum. The originality of the combined inversion is its potential to recover both the stellar content and the kinematics simultaneously. These techniques use new synthetic high resolution spectra produced by PéGASE and minimization algorithms. We apply them to mock data representing the bulge and disk population of the inner region of spiral galaxies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ducted propagation of hydromagnetic waves in the upper ionosphere

This paper presents a theoretical investigation of the ducting of Pc1 hydromagnetic waves in an ionospheric layer situated above the F₂ region. Theoretical calculations show that this upper ionospheric duct may also sustain horizontal propagation of Pc1 pulsations over appreciable distances. It is found that there is a low-frequency cutoff as in the case of the F₂ layer waveguide. The group velocity of waves in the upper ionospheric duct is considerably greater, and dispersion is more pronounced compared to the ducted propagation in the F₂ region.     

Predicting water flow in fully and partially saturated porous media: a new fractal-based permeability model

Hydrogeology Journal - Predicting the permeability of porous media in saturated and partially saturated conditions is of crucial importance in many geo-engineering areas, from water resources to...     

Improved flood susceptibility mapping using a best first decision tree integrated with ensemble learning techniques

Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events. In this study, we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree (BFT) and the Bagging (Bagging-BFT), Decorate (Bagging-BFT), and Random Subspace (RSS-BFT) ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner. A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province (Vietnam) were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors (slope, elevation, aspect, curvature, river density, distance from rivers, flow direction, geology, soil, and land use) for generating the training and validation datasets. The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events. Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT (AUC = 0.982) and Bagging-BFT (AUC = 0.967) models. A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans.